See my previous for what I think might happen. I am stunned at how different our predictions are. I think his lack of documentation for state party eligibility to run might really hurt him here, and might be an additional reason (besides a sure shellacking) for Obama not to run at all.
I think Hillary is a formidable enemy because she is so experienced at knowing how to tack to the center, and she has SO MUCH SPACE betwen where Barack took this country and the Actual Political Center that she needn’t even approach it. She knows how to control the mainstream news cycle, which I hope can now be overcome with all the other sources of info...
Do you really think there will be an outcry that she stole anything, when he has done so much bad for us all, black, white, blue, and striped?
My fear is of the male Repub leaders who are scared to take her on, if she is the nominee. We would be so better off if he was our opponent, it’s not funny.
(I totally get you on him needing to be propped up - check out the photo of him today in the back of the limo looking like he is holding an imaginary, comforting, little crack pipe...)
Oh, don't be. I think you and I probably agree on most of the calculus for 2012. We're just concentrating on different points of it tonight.
I think his lack of documentation for state party eligibility to run might really hurt him here, and might be an additional reason (besides a sure shellacking) for Obama not to run at all.
I'm with you, there. At least a few states are liable to tighten up their filing requirements, which will be an automatic full stop for Obama. He dare not reveal his documentary past at this late date, after having defied the public for so long about it. In all likelihood, he can't anyway, which is why he's defied us for so long.
I think Hillary is a formidable enemy because she is so experienced at knowing how to tack to the center...
Bubba was a master at tracking to the center, but Hillary has no experience or tact with that at all. A lexis-nexus search will bring up innumerable Marxist/Commie statements of hers, which will be used by opponents to pin her firmly to the hard left.
The country is now in rebellion against the Socialist agenda, and the people aren't going to back off anytime soon. Obama, Pelosi, and Reid have ensured that the pain of that agenda will be with us for at least a decade. Democrats are now running away from it as fast as their feet will carry them.
Hillary is well known for pushing for a nationalized health care system, which is one major Socialist position she can't run from. The tie to ObamaCare is unbreakable, and it will hurt her badly.
Do you really think there will be an outcry that she stole anything, when he has done so much bad for us all, black, white, blue, and striped?
If Obama steps aside, and Hillary runs, blacks and the far left will deduce that it's a set up, and that the Clintons are responsible for it. They will not buy the narrative from Obama and the Democrats, and will revolt against the party.
As I said above, most Americans have rebelled against the Socialist agenda, but remember that there are around 20% to 25% in this country who are true believers. Despite the abysmal failures of Obama's progressive agenda, they will press ahead, and will demand that the party continue to run in that direction.
How will Hillary hope to gather them into the fold, if she has to track to the center? If she tries to track left to appease them, she loses the center. If she attempts to hold some nebulous middle ground, she'll lose the hard left and especially blacks.
The problem for Hillary, and for any prospective Democrat hopeful, is that the progressive agenda has failed. This presents a host of problems for Democrats across the political landscape, no matter how strongly, or how weakly they've supported it. The fact is, they're all glued to it, and Obama, Pelosi, and Reid, no matter how much they'd like to dis-entangle themselves.
Like I've said upthread, I wouldn't want to be one of their strategists right now. They've got an impossible minefield to navigate.
My fear is of the male Repub leaders who are scared to take her on, if she is the nominee.
Fortunately, we won't have to worry about that for 2012, because a fearless woman from Alaska will be leading the charge.