Oh, don't be. I think you and I probably agree on most of the calculus for 2012. We're just concentrating on different points of it tonight.
I think his lack of documentation for state party eligibility to run might really hurt him here, and might be an additional reason (besides a sure shellacking) for Obama not to run at all.
I'm with you, there. At least a few states are liable to tighten up their filing requirements, which will be an automatic full stop for Obama. He dare not reveal his documentary past at this late date, after having defied the public for so long about it. In all likelihood, he can't anyway, which is why he's defied us for so long.
I think Hillary is a formidable enemy because she is so experienced at knowing how to tack to the center...
Bubba was a master at tracking to the center, but Hillary has no experience or tact with that at all. A lexis-nexus search will bring up innumerable Marxist/Commie statements of hers, which will be used by opponents to pin her firmly to the hard left.
The country is now in rebellion against the Socialist agenda, and the people aren't going to back off anytime soon. Obama, Pelosi, and Reid have ensured that the pain of that agenda will be with us for at least a decade. Democrats are now running away from it as fast as their feet will carry them.
Hillary is well known for pushing for a nationalized health care system, which is one major Socialist position she can't run from. The tie to ObamaCare is unbreakable, and it will hurt her badly.
Do you really think there will be an outcry that she stole anything, when he has done so much bad for us all, black, white, blue, and striped?
If Obama steps aside, and Hillary runs, blacks and the far left will deduce that it's a set up, and that the Clintons are responsible for it. They will not buy the narrative from Obama and the Democrats, and will revolt against the party.
As I said above, most Americans have rebelled against the Socialist agenda, but remember that there are around 20% to 25% in this country who are true believers. Despite the abysmal failures of Obama's progressive agenda, they will press ahead, and will demand that the party continue to run in that direction.
How will Hillary hope to gather them into the fold, if she has to track to the center? If she tries to track left to appease them, she loses the center. If she attempts to hold some nebulous middle ground, she'll lose the hard left and especially blacks.
The problem for Hillary, and for any prospective Democrat hopeful, is that the progressive agenda has failed. This presents a host of problems for Democrats across the political landscape, no matter how strongly, or how weakly they've supported it. The fact is, they're all glued to it, and Obama, Pelosi, and Reid, no matter how much they'd like to dis-entangle themselves.
Like I've said upthread, I wouldn't want to be one of their strategists right now. They've got an impossible minefield to navigate.
My fear is of the male Repub leaders who are scared to take her on, if she is the nominee.
Fortunately, we won't have to worry about that for 2012, because a fearless woman from Alaska will be leading the charge.
I agree with you that this lack of documentation thing is real fire behind the smoke. It has gone on so long that it’s no set up (Obama pulling out his long form BC for all the world to see at this point to prove the “Birthers” are idiots); even some mainstream press has mentioned this crucial legal issue. This issue is not “nothing.”
I suspect he attended one or more of his universities as a foreign student and thus actually checked a box marked NO for “Are you an American citizen?” on his application.
It is true that Hillary hasn’t personally tracked toward the center, but with Barack before her, she certainly would not have to force herself to go very close to the actual political center! I think that as socialist and Alinskyite as she is, she is perceived to be more Democrat mainstream.
I would like you to be right, that the country will reject her for what she is. I’m not completely convinced of that, because I think she will own the media. It feels like that has already begun, and I don’t focus on much mainstream media. Just my little ears to the ground tell me she’s working on it...
Those 25% of true believer liberals, those who think Obama didn’t go far enough, will probably not want Hillary. But if she is up against Sarah, sadly, to a lot of Joe and Jane Q.s, Hillary appears more palatable. It’s abhorrent and they are wrong, but it will be a fight to show these apoliticals the truth.
Do you really think that the Anointed (Thomas Sowell’s term) will dump Progressivism just because (as they believe) Barack didn’t get the word out right? Unh-unh. They will still want more of it. Yes, Democrats are in shambles, not knowing what will get them elected in the near future, but it will still be some form of Big Gov, Elitist, We are here to help kinds of pathetic pandering.
And remember, if we win big next month, we then have to fight our own new winners in order to keep them on the right track, as when everyone gets into office, they fall prey to that power syndrome. We will be needing to hold their feet to the fire, AND to help them through the bad press they might not be used to hearing about themselves.
I like your line of thinking, though, and I hope I am over-pessimistic.