Posted on 09/23/2010 10:24:06 AM PDT by BradtotheBone
(CNN) – Two days. Two very different polls in New York State's gubernatorial battle.
A Siena College survey released Thursday indicates that New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the Democrat's nominee, holds a commanding 57 to 24 percent lead over Republican nominee Carl Paladino, a businessman and developer from Buffalo.
But a Quinnipiac College poll released Wednesday paints a very different story, with Cuomo holding a 49 to 43 percent advantage over Paladino.
So what gives?
The Siena Research Institute poll was of registered voters, while the Quinnipiac survey questioned the much narrower pool of likely voters.
"The difference between the polls may be due in part to the different base of voters who were surveyed, but that's probably not the only explanation," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "One poll has nearly twice as many undecided voters as the other, and there may be a number of methodological differences that also account for the variation in the horse race numbers."
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...
The Siena College poll was conducted September 16-17, with 801 registered voters questioned by telephone. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted September 16-20, with 751 likely voters in New York State questioned by telephone. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
They have numerous Jewish holidays going on in that spread.
I am sure that screwed up the results.
Survey USA 49-40 Cuomo, today. Close to Quinnipiac. Sienna is an out(right)liar. Probably heavily weighted with students from the college.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/09/15/nv-oh-wa-poll2.pdf
Here is the lastest polls from CNN on NV, Ohio, and Washigton state.
Boy that idoit mayor or Reno seems to be the only reason Harry has a chance. He seems to be helping reed overperform in the country up there.
ALL of the polls going back to March.
Cuomo isn’t as strong as he once was, but he’s till leading. The real polls to watch will be the ones in October.
Keep in mind that this is the same Siena College that found Paladino trailing Lazio by 43-42 percent among likely GOP voters just before the primary. Paladino went on to win the primary with 62% of the vote.
Probably heavily weighted BY students from the college................
Likely voters has proven to be more accurate than registered voters. In a state like NY, the Dems enjoy a big advantage in terms of registered voters. The question is whether they will come out to vote or will sit on their hands. We’ve already seen huge upsets in the past year in Virginia, NJ and Mass., as well as in numerous primaries. Those advocating “throw the bums out” are much more motivated than those advocating status quo. To date, the Dems have not found an issue that has caused sufficient panic among their base to turn the tide. Unless that happens, the Dems will suffer an enormous defeat in November.
Their playbook: Week before the election, Robo calls to elderly,"THE REPUBLICANS WILL TAKE AWAY YOUR SOCIAL SECURITY." Robo calls to WELFARE QUEENS, "THE REPUBLICANS WILL TAKE AWAY YOUR FOOD STAMPS, PUBLIC HOUSING AND MEDICAID." Robo calls to the UNEMPLOYED, "THE REPUBLICANS WILL TAKE AWAY YOUR UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS." Robo calls to the UNIONS, "THE REPUBLICANS WILL TAKE AWAY YOUR JOB SECURITY."
One of ‘em will prove to be an outlier.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.