Likely voters has proven to be more accurate than registered voters. In a state like NY, the Dems enjoy a big advantage in terms of registered voters. The question is whether they will come out to vote or will sit on their hands. We’ve already seen huge upsets in the past year in Virginia, NJ and Mass., as well as in numerous primaries. Those advocating “throw the bums out” are much more motivated than those advocating status quo. To date, the Dems have not found an issue that has caused sufficient panic among their base to turn the tide. Unless that happens, the Dems will suffer an enormous defeat in November.
Their playbook: Week before the election, Robo calls to elderly,"THE REPUBLICANS WILL TAKE AWAY YOUR SOCIAL SECURITY." Robo calls to WELFARE QUEENS, "THE REPUBLICANS WILL TAKE AWAY YOUR FOOD STAMPS, PUBLIC HOUSING AND MEDICAID." Robo calls to the UNEMPLOYED, "THE REPUBLICANS WILL TAKE AWAY YOUR UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS." Robo calls to the UNIONS, "THE REPUBLICANS WILL TAKE AWAY YOUR JOB SECURITY."