I think the main thing to take away from this poll is that there is no front runner - there’s only a six point spread between the candidates in this poll, excepting Ron Paul.
As you pointed out, the most striking leads are Mitt Romney’s 26% among 18-29, and Gingrich’s 27% among the over-65-ers. Neither of those numbers cracks the 30% barrier, though. It seems clear that if the field consists of these five candidates, it will be starting out as anyone’s ballgame except for Ron Paul’s.
Of course, I don’t think the field will consist of these five candidates. Besides Pawlenty, who you mentioned, I can think of at least a couple others seriously considering runs, like Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels. After all the good press he’s getting, I’d be shocked if Bobby Jindal isn’t giving the Presidency some serious consideration. Throw in other names like Thune, Santorum, Pence, and DeMint, and there’s the potential for another crowded field.
Also, I’m not at all convinced that Palin, Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich, and Paul are all running. I’m most certain Romney is running. I used to think Palin was on the fence at best, but she seems to be retooling her PAC for a run. I’m not sure about Huckabee - he certainly seems to see Palin as his biggest obstacle, so if he runs, it could get nasty between those two. I would actually be very surprised if Gingrich runs, and who the hell knows what Ron Paul is ever thinking.
Bottom line is there is no frontrunner, and I actually think the debates are going to be even more important this time than last time. Here’s hoping the candidates take some control this time and don’t let MSNBC and CNN make them look like idiots again.
Yes, I think that's true, too. These will be the most anticipated Republican debates since 1980.
It has been widely reported that neither of Jindal's parents were United States citizens when he was born.