Posted on 05/16/2010 5:19:10 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin
The risk of a double-dip recession hasn’t abated, even after news of the huge European bailout in response to the Greek debt crisis.
World markets soared initially on the announcement of the nearly $1 trillion rescue plan, and then declined. But as the economist John Maynard Keynes cautioned long ago, such market reactions are basically a “beauty contest” — with investors trying to predict the short-term reaction that other investors think still other investors will have.
In other words, don’t view these beauty contests as a heartfelt response to a fundamental change in the economy.
In fact, there is still a real risk of a double-dip recession, though it can’t be quantified by the statistical models that economists use for forecasts. Instead, the danger stems from the weakness and vulnerability of confidence — whose decline could bring markets down, further stress balance sheets and cause cuts in consumption, investment and local government expenditures.
Ultimately, the risk resides largely in social psychology. It is the fear of fear itself, of which Franklin D. Roosevelt famously spoke.
From 2007 to 2009, there was widespread concern about the risk of an economic depression, but that scare has been abating. Since mid-2009, it has been replaced by the milder worry of a double-dip recession, as a count of Web searches for those terms on Google Insights suggests. And with that depression scare still fresh in our minds, sensitivity to the possibility of another downturn remains high.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
So all we have to fear, is fear itself?
“Ultimately, the risk resides largely in social psychology.”
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Bullcrap.
The risk resides largely on the fact we have marxists running America.
The NYT is nothing but a propaganda rag, constantly making excuses for leftwing incompetence and greed.
Not qualified, for wrapping fish with.
I’m a-feared of fear. ;)
In other news, reading the NY Times could make one ignorant.
My observation is that the underground economy is alive and well
It is the sucking off of the life blood of these companies (capital) by the vampire of government that is killing off the markets.
FWIW Shiller called the "Dot-com" bubble and the real estate bubble. Few if any other economists did the same.
I expect the economy will start to pick up in January 2013.
Why do I get the feeling that EVERYTHING out of the NYT’s is political? Would they be advocating the error of thinking our way into another recession if a Republican was in the White House?
I swear, the desire to have sex with other men or kill their unborn children drives the Left into such contortions...
Crony capitalism, i.e. the incestuous relationship between Wall Street and Washington DC, is what is killing our economy. The vampire of government gets its sustenance from the "blood bankers" that wear $2000 suits, courtesy of the widows and orphans they purport to serve.
I call BS, Mr New York Times.
The risk resides in:
1. The expiration of Bush tax cuts in January
2. The inclusion of new taxes/fees for ObamaCare
3. Massive deficits doubled by huge new ObamaCare expenditures
4. The Iraq Withdrawal Lie: the US is to station the same number of troops in Kuwait and "tour Iraq" each month with different groups of those troops.
5. The Afghan Withdraw Lie: (see above for some idea of the sneakiness of these criminal politicians)
6. Cap n Trade: huge increases in costs of energy
7. Oil Spill: more increases due to fight to end gulf drilling
8. VAT tax on the horizon
Costs, costs, costs, and costs upon costs.
Doesn't give any businessman I know a warm, cozy feeling.
“Just think good thoughts! Happy days are here again! The recession is over! Get out there and BUY BUY BUY!!”
THey are preparing the blame. They will blame conservative media for sabotaging the psychology. It’s our fault, and we must be curbed, ya see. Too much freedom of speech, and so on.
Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause One
No, fear of Obama WILL cause one.
No, not the fears of a double dip.
The reality that the current economy is in a bubble will cause the next leg down.
Stories like this are proof that they know this is just a bubble that is bound to crash. And they are already providing cover for Obammie and his Commies by trying to blame it on “fear.”
“If ya’ll hadn’t been all afraid and stuff, you’d be wealthy right now.”
This is like trying to pin the 2000 recession (tech bubble bursting) on George W. Bush for mentioning the fact that we were in a recession during the 2000 debates.
I thought they announced that there will be no double dip. Why is the NYT restarting the discussion?
Celente has been calling this a bailout bubble for awhile as is schiff.
I think we are screwed so bad and so royally that they are intentionally keeping the truth from us for fear of bank runs and people hoarding stuff.
Agreed.
The incestuous relationship between the bankers, financiers and the government is part of the process of sucking the taxpayer dry and the misalocation of capital.
The US taxpayer bailed out AIG so that they could payback French and German bankers and bond holders......yeah, that was good use of our money ":^(
That is definitely what they are doing.
They are trying to float this through the Nov. midterm elections.
If you compare most of the critical numbers, we are set up for a crash worse than the follow-up crash after that of 1929.
The only trouble is that we can’t borrow our way out of this recession/depression (because it is a credit/debt-based recession, not an inventory-based recession) and we can’t manufacture/produce our way out of this.
When it crashes, the only remedy is to free the markets up so that we can clear out this bad debt. It may take 10 years of economy agony to right this economy.
The other alternative is that people panic about lost fortunes and lost retirement and they demand a global currency run by a global bank.
Which makes a lot of sense, when you think about — to demand that those who caused this catastrophe to control over all the world’s economy. (sarc, obviously)
“Doesn’t give any businessman I know a warm, cozy feeling.”
It sure doesn’t. I’m due for a raise in July. I’m not holding my breath...I’ll be glad to just hold on to my health care package and/or my job.
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