Posted on 02/18/2010 10:03:43 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
HOWARD MEGDAL: The 2012 primaries are a long way off, but by any measure, Sarah Palin is the favorite right now to be the GOP standard-bearer in the next presidential election. GOP strategist Phil Musser, among many others, have come to this conclusion. I have felt this way since the fall of 2008, and nothing that has taken place since then has changed my mind.
When I evaluate presidential prospects for a nomination, I take several factors into account. I want to see that the person has a base of support-clearly, Sarah Palin has a strong set of GOP voters ready to support her. More specifically, I want to know the intensity level of her supporters; no one could have seen her stops on the book tour, with people waiting hours just to spend 15 seconds with her, and doubted that these are people who will turn out on a cold January Iowa night.
Next is determining whether the candidate can raise money. Usually, this is mostly a function of the enthusiasm, but in Palin’s case, there were some doubts that she could sufficiently organize to monetize that passion. But Palin raised $1.4 million in the second half of 2009, despite doing very little actual fundraising. She held no events, sent out very few e-mail solicitations. In other words, there is clearly a donor base she has already tapped into, and can continue to as the primary season draws closer.
Then, of course, there are the opponents. And while many of the potential candidates back in 2008 have dropped from the picture-you won’t see John Ensign or Mark Sanford in the race, and almost certainly not Bobby Jindal, either- the one 2008 candidate who is in the picture is Mitt Romney. Indeed, he managed to raise $2.1 million during the period of time Palin raised $1.4 million.
But money was always going to be Romney’s principal advantage in a 2012 race. It was his trump card in 2008, too. But let’s not forget- it wasn’t actually a trump card. Romney was too slick for GOP voters to swallow. They voted for Mike Huckabee in Iowa, and took John McCain, a candidate many of them barely tolerate, over Romney in the GOP battle as a whole.
In other words, facing a severely underfunded Huckabee and a poor candidate disliked by the GOP base in McCain, Romney was too inauthentic to come close to sealing the deal.
Now, in 2012, Romney will have the same financial edge, though Palin’s passion will likely dull that edge somewhat. But Romney now plans to run not as the liberal who faced Ted Kennedy in 1994, or the social conservative who ran in 2008, but as an economic conservative in 2012. It is yet another shift for a candidate facing Palin, whose entire appeal can be traced to her voters seeing her as authentic.
Those ready to dismiss Palin also point to the recent poll that revealed 71 percent of Americans don’t think Sarah Palin is qualified to be president. But notice that the number, among Republicans, hovers around 45 percent.
Back in August 2007, a Democratic candidate for president named Barack Obama had an unsolvable problem: only 44 percent of Democrats thought he could handle a foreign crisis. A majority of Democrats didn’t think, in other words, he was qualified to be president less than five months before the Iowa caucuses.
But passion won out. And while Sarah Palin is no Barack Obama, I think it is safe to say that Mitt Romney is no Hillary Clinton. There’s a long way to go, but as of right now, Palin is the nominee. And the first GOP debates will be here faster than you can wink.
CHRIS PUMMER: Mitt Romney has the steadiest political hands that will try to reach for the 2012 Republican nomination, which is why he’ll be the likely winner.
There’s no doubt Romney will raise more money than anyone else. Even those touting Palin as a potential money machine are beginning to cede that point. And the only potential candidate that looks like he could build a better organization is Mike Huckabee, and his decision to run or not looks very uncertain.
But as President Barack Obama’s popularity slides, the 2012 election looks more winnable for the GOP. That means the party is more likely to choose a credible candidate.
Palin is not a credible candidate. Her celebrity is her only strength, but the longer she’s been in the public eye, the less the public likes seeing her. Or if you prefer the most charitable view, Palin isn’t winning any new converts.
We’ve heard the excuses from Palin apologists; on disappointing fundraising (”She was busy governing Alaska!” followed by “She was busy writing a book!”; on organizing (”You don’t need a ground game with that many loyal Facebook friends!”); on being able to broaden her base of support (”It’s big enough to win a rump GOP primary!”); and even her startling lack of knowledge on any issue (”She’s giving them just what they need to hear!”).
All of the political pundits assuring us of a Palin coronation seem to be attributing qualities to the former half-term governor that she just doesn’t have.
While Palin has an informal group of advisers that seem to be withholding any good advice, Romney still has the political machine from his 2008 presidential bid intact.
While Palin was cashing a check for speaking to a group that’s on the fringe even for a GOP base, Romney is quietly traveling around the country on his own dime building on his base of support.
And while Palin jumped into the middle of a civil war in NY-23, endorsing a candidate who lost the campaign and a long-held seat for the Republican Party in the House of Representatives, Romney was a strong figure behind the election of Scott Brown to the Senate that shifted the balance of power in Washington and has the Democratic Party on its heels.
If financial and organizational advantages weren’t enough, the primary playing field probably also favors Romney.
Nate Silver recently took a look at how the primary might play out. Even with the voting schedule still undecided, Romney has the most clear-cut path to victory. Win in Iowa — which Romney almost did two years ago — and then in New Hampshire — where he was also a close second in 2008 — and he’ll be unstoppable. Just win New Hampshire and Romney can probably win a war of attrition.
This doesn’t mean we should start etching the word inevitable on Romney’s candidacy. A Huckabee bid certainly complicates things for him, especially since the former Arkansas governor could be favored to win Iowa and South Carolina again.
Should the field be winnowed down quickly, some of Romney’s disadvantages become more damaging.
Some Evangelicals will simply not be comfortable with a Mormon candidate. Some tea party purists won’t like a politician that advanced health care reform while governing Massachusetts.
But even if Romney can’t begin with a bang in Iowa, a crowded field of candidates probably also favors him. A marginal candidate like Rick Santorum won’t peel away as many social conservatives from his column (like he would Palin or Huckabee). Gary Johnson won’t relegate him further into also-ran status (Ron Paul).
And this time around Romney will have a stronger identity. He doesn’t have to try to be everything to everyone like in 2008. Instead Romney can let Tim Pawlenty do that while finishing third.
Having been there before counts for something. Romney’s already lost the game of musical chairs once. But having experienced it means he’s better-positioned to grab the last seat this time around.
Not going to happen.
Some who are throwing Sarah under the bus because of McVain, never really supported her in the first place, it’s their yoke that they can hang around Sarah’s neck; they have been playing the RINO card and other issues to confuse potential supporters against her.
At least this will give the GOP faithful here on FreeRepublic something to comment upon, get hopes up, donate time and money to get their favorite "Republican" nominated in the process that is rigged from the beginning.
I can't even muster a yawn these days as it seems things never change.
The "machine", regardless of political party - RULES!
Not looking for any arguments with the "Party" faithful, nor will offer any! Enjoy yet another flawed nomination process if you will. When you tire of it and we still have a Republic you must change it. My efforts will be at ending the "party system" with little hope of success, but more hope for the Republic than playing their games.
His ambivilence with respect to his positions on the issues, his support for RomneyCare, and dare I say it, his Mormonism(which a certain % of the GOP base will not vote for under any circumstances) means he is unelectable.He's not just unelectable. Lots of people are unelectable. Yet they're still decent people. Romney, on the other hand, is positively repellent. You know it. I know it. Everyone knows it. They're just afraid to admit it.
Very bad and extremely silly for the punditry to be forecasting 2012.
There’s no forecasting events that will impact who will run and who won’t. In addition, trying to limit the race between Sarah and Romney is also silly, since Romney is the only one who’s decidedly running, whereas our Sarah is busy trying to raise money for the GOP in states like Arkansas and for Sarah’s PAC so she can further advance her work in election 2010 with no concerns about election 2012 at this juncture.
I agree with you about the fact that she has been active and that is why I am so angry with the people attacking her over the McCain thing. She has done so much for the conservative movement in so little time, and as a reward these people turn their backs on her.
They're not.
Yup, but if the Mitt decides to back someone, then that ‘machine’ becomes even more important.
Sara has a 3rd string sandlot team, no machine seen as yet.
I wonder who the dark horse will be?
I would agree with you but I remember the last election and it was practically decided before it started. The media was allowed to pick our candidate by deciding who could go to the debates. This is why people need to support the people they want early so that the media can not simply dismiss who they choose.
I agree also, all of the anti-palin, concern troll business going around is nothing but static noise, also all of the articles against Sarah by left and right are also just papers needing to fill up space. We will certainly know very soon how all of this will play out.....when the rubber meets the road.
His big problem is there are at least two other moderates in Pawlenty and Huck.
Sarah will garner the vote of most conservatives, and in a GOP party primary with tea partiers coming in, that's a huge edge.
We must be recalling a different ‘08 Republican primary. We had a very weak field. Rudy Guiliani was leading in almost all the polls but we knew he wouldn’t win the nomination because he wasn’t pro-life. Romney had the best grassroots organization on the ground in Iowa, but when Huckabee, the Christian swept-in, he took Iowa and then McCain took NH, SC and finally FL and it was all but over. It was Huckaboob or McCain at that point. Again, WEAK field. That cannot be allowed to happen in 2012.
Bob! I like that idea.
Romney was never my favorite, he was my third fav after Hunter fell, and Thompson shuffled off, and I was hoping for anyone who could stop McCain.
As it turned out, Romney didn’t have the fight in him. I haven’t had much use for him since. When we needed him to fight, he did a cost-benefit calculation and handed the nomination to the single worst man running. I haven’t really got over that.
He’ll give Palin a run for her money because he’ll be well prepared on every issue, and he will be well funded. But he doesn’t have clear principles and he isn’t a fighter, he proved that to me when he stepped aside for McCain.
Its still early to say if Palin will be my candidate. But she is a born campaigner, and she has good instincts, both political and human. She sees O as a bigger threat than any fellow Republican which in my view makes her a much more worthy soul than Romney, who just sees in Palin a rival rather than an ally in the fight for America. His minions spend so much ammo attacking Palin that they don’t have any ammo left over for Obama. You’ll notice that most of the attacks on Palin are “friendly fire”. Which tells you just about all you need to know about Romney.
We just went through the fight of the century, with O seizing control of banks and car companies and unions and with his carbon law trying to take over every industry in America. I’m going to remember who was in the fight and who was off planning his 2012 campaign and couldn’t be bothered.
Sarah is a rising star.
That's the difference. Easy.
“Most of the Anti-Palin noise we are hearing here on FreeRepublic seems dis-ingenuous to me.
Probably the disaffected followers of other candidates.
Maybe so, maybe not.”
We also don’t want to put all of our eggs in one basket before the chicken even lays them.
Here’s CPAC’s ballot.....
Ballot order
Haley Barbour
Mitch Daniels
Newt Gingrich
Mike Huckabee
Sarah Palin
Ron Paul
Tim Pawlenty
Mike Pence
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum
John Thune
Other (write in)
Undecided
- - - - - - -
From this article:
“Some Evangelicals will simply not be comfortable with a Mormon candidate.”
(A very uncomforatable truth).
“Some tea party purists won’t like a politician that advanced health care reform while governing Massachusetts.”
(State’s rights, but I don’t like it, regardless).
Sheesh!
I didn’t proof read, so go ahead...
hit me for “uncomforatable” LOL.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.