I betchya Ian would like to banter with you :)
Need to familiarize myself. There is so much “stuff,” and I realize grabbing good context is tough in many situations, but this analysis just seems to be very narrow and out of sync with what is really going on.
Would like to know what this analysis is based on.
The trends in Iraq are clear, and might even be something of an ultimate vindication of the Bush policy when all is said and done. It is fragile for sure, but recent months have seen steep declines in violence as a whole. November was by some counts the lowest civilian casualty month since the war began. December went back up but much of it is due to Ashura which has historically been violent. The big attacks and seeming resurgence of at least some AQI is troubling, and perhaps a future lean toward an Iranian-like state... but, the Iraqis do seem to enjoy democracy so there is reason to think it could turn out OK after some rocky periods.
The increased troops in Afghanistan have helped stabilize the areas that have seen the increase. The additional troops should continue that trend. If we can really push the Taliban and AQ into the country and kill the worst and demoralize the 'best' then it's a good thing. Afghanistan is a big place, I'm not sure the U.S. or allies could really up the numbers to match it's size. Getting out does not make much sense given the fact that many high profile attacks and attempts have come from the region.
There are lots of questions with Pakistan, as the attack yesterday reminds. It does seem they are trying to work to defeat the Taliban and associated elements, but I am not sure they understand counterinsurgency as well as the U.S. and the allies. The drone attacks are taking out top leadership left and right but also annoy large parts of the population. It is obviously heavily tied to Afghanistan and the point about attacks being plotted and then activated from the region.
The Yemen thing is a bit scary just because it seems AQ or similar groups could just keep popping up in weak or failed states. I don't know all that much about the situation there, but it seems like it could boil over in some fashion.