A Conversation With David Kilcullen (Interview by Carlos Lozada, former Petraeus advisor)

Washington Post ^ | March 22, 2009 | Carlos Lozada

[neverdem]

Why is an Aussie anthropologist coaching American generals on how to win wars? David Kilcullen, an Australian army reservist and top adviser to Gen. David H. Petraeus during the troop surge in Iraq, has spent years studying insurgencies in countries from Indonesia to Afghanistan, distinguishing hard-core terrorists from "accidental guerrillas" -- and his theories are revolutionizing military thinking throughout the West. Kilcullen spoke with Outlook's Carlos Lozada on why Pakistan is poised for collapse, whether catching Osama bin Laden is really a good idea and how the Enlightenment and Lawrence of Arabia helped Washington shift course in Iraq. Excerpts:

What is the real central front in the war on terror?

Pakistan. Hands down. No doubt.

Why?

Pakistan is 173 million people, 100 nuclear weapons, an army bigger than the U.S. Army, and al-Qaeda headquarters sitting right there in the two-thirds of the country that the government doesn't control. The Pakistani military and police and intelligence service don't follow the civilian government; they are essentially a rogue state within a state. We're now reaching the point where within one to six months we could see the collapse of the Pakistani state, also because of the global financial crisis, which just exacerbates all these problems. . . . The collapse of Pakistan, al-Qaeda acquiring nuclear weapons, an extremist takeover -- that would dwarf everything we've seen in the war on terror today.

How important is it to kill or capture Osama bin laden?

Not very. It depends on who does it. Let me give you two possible scenarios. Scenario one is, American commandos shoot their way into some valley in Pakistan and kill bin Laden. That doesn't end the war on terror; it makes bin Laden a martyr. But here's scenario two: Imagine that a tribal...

[LS]

"I think it took them a historically standard period of time [to affect change in Iraq]. In Vietnam it took three to four years to reorient. In Malaya the British took about the same amount of time. In Northern Ireland they took longer."

Que me as Randy Quaid in "Independence Day": "I been sayin' it and sayin' it---ain't I been sayin' it?"

[neverdem]

Touting Religion, Grabbing Land

Let us know when you're on TV, please?

[LS]

It's an easy schedule to remember. I'm on "Fox and Friends" every Wednesday, usually at 7:40 but sometimes 7:50 EST. Then, for the past two weeks, they've also brought me in on Sundays . . . but the times are all over the map. Two weeks ago it was 7:40, yesterday it was 7:20.

My spot on ABC's "Living the Life" scheduled for April 21 went away when the show was canceled last week.

I was on Pat Dollard's "Jihadi Hour" blogspot radio last night.

No more "big" media scheduled for now. There MAY be something very big in the works, however. Stay tuned.