Posted on 11/03/2008 11:29:29 PM PST by Chet 99
The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll
Obama/Biden 50% McCain/Palin 45% Undec 5%
--Our final tracking poll finds a whopping 27% of LV's reporting that they've already voted. Among this group, Obama leads McCain 51%-46%.
--In what could be a small bright spot for congressional GOPers, the Dem lead on the generic congressional ballot question is down to 5 pts. A week ago (10/27) Dems held an 8-pt lead.
--McCain has also opened up a lead over Obama on the question of which candidate is more prepared to lead the country. A week ago (10/27), the candidates were tied at 45%. Today, McCain leads is ahead by 6 pts. (49-43%). Among indies, he leads 50-37%.
Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/31-11/2 by FD, surveyed 887 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I. Look for full results in Monday's Latest Edition.
Based on an analysis of responses to questions on candidates' images, party ID and demographics, "Refused" responses in the head-to-head question were assigned to Obama, McCain or undec.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
This and Ramussen have great internals for McCain. We conservatives just have to turnout.
This is all turnout. If this and Rasmussen are to believed, Republican needs only turn out the way they did in 2004! That’s it!
Good god people, 0bama is a socialist. VOTE!
If there was ever a time for THE SURGE, now is the time for us Republicans (even if it is for a RINO).
This has a 5 or 6 point advantage for Dems and yet their lead is only 5 points for Obama. This shows that we can still win this thing.
Huh? Indies for McCain 51 to 37 and he’s down 5, yeah right. That’s the opposite of zogby with Indies. Obviously, both cannot be right. Man these pollsters are so FOS - I really now believe they are just pulling numbers out of their a**.
Obama only leads 51 to 46 amongst those who’ve voted. There have been so many registered dems voting thus far. Again good news - we need to turn out and even out the dem/repub ratios and we’ll be fine.
Does anyone else think the evangelicals will be coming out in droves this year? I think the Obamanation should make them come out even stronger than four years ago. I think they’ll wait all day if necessary. The courts and Roe are hinging on this election.
Absurd. No Obama voter would refuse to admit it—Peter denied Christ three times, but Obamunists won't deny their messiah even once. "Refused" responses are McCain voters who don't want to be called racists, as are most of the "undecided."
Best essay on the Polls and why McCain will win.
http://seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/
This was posted about 15 hours ago.
well Chet, finally one poll we’re not completely clobbered in
Insanely enough, it is even closer in the Daily Kos poll.. 50 to 46.
Well, I’m going to bed.
ya’ll wake me up in late 2012
And you forgot to mention the 10+ Dem oversample in that poll.
What is tripping me out is all these pollsters are setting themselves up for failure and runining their reputations.
The oversampling of Democrats seems to be from anywhere from 7% to 13% seems absurd. Are there really that many more registered Democrats than Republicans? I don’t think so.
If this poll oversampled Democrats by 10%, I’d say a five point deficit form McCain is good news. My guess is you will get 2% - 3% more Democrats than Republicans voting and that will make a much tighter race, with perhaps a small MCain lead.
Bottom line is I feel it comes down to who wins PA, OH, VA, NV and CO (I think McCain is safe in NC, IN, and FL).
You really have to also wonder how many people will show to vote certain they will vote for Obama, then once they get in there, thy just can’t do it. I think that number may be higher than usual this year.
Remember no votes have been counted yet (except 2 NH hamlets). The 51-46 that is alluded to in favor of Democrats refers only to their party affiliation and NOT to how they actually voted.
It’s actually exit polling for whatever accuracy that has (not much) for the early voters. I’ve seen McCain ahead by 1 in exit polling of early voters to all the way up to a 10 to 12 point lead for Obama in exit polling early voters. This “exit poll” of the early voters shows a 5 point lead which intuitively seems right b/c so many more dems have shown up compared to repubs thus far but yet only 5 down. Of course no votes have been counted.
Remember what my daddy told me..."Don't believe everything you read".
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.