Posted on 11/02/2008 11:04:18 PM PST by ubaldus
O +8, was O +10 two weeks ago.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
"The poll shows some slight movement for McCain. But with just 48 hours left, it's going to be a challenge to make up the rest of the difference," said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who conducts the survey with Democrat Peter D. Hart.
WSJ polls since July:
Date Obama McCain
11/1 - 11/2 51 43
10/17 - 10/20 52 42
10/4 - 10/5 49 43
9/12 - 9/22 48 46
9/6 - 9/7 47 46
8/15 - 8/18 45 42
7/19 - 7/21 47 41
Well, some things, it doesn’t matter whether it is the first, the middle, or the last one out, they all stink equally.
It will be interesting to see if TIPP and Battleground stick to their guns tomorrow. If they do, we’ll have polls literally all over the map. Polls usually converge to a single consensus this late in the game.
I love how the chart shows they have consistently underpolled Republican support each time.
No internals = bullsh*t poll.
Not this year. Who cares, it’s crunch time.
Vote!
I don’t understand how so many people are undecided.
I don’t trust the polls - I don’t give them the correct information when I’m polled, I’m certain many others don’t either.
I think TIPP and Battleground will try to go low (in O +3 range). In this case they can claim all the glory if the election is indeed close.
Many thanks for this great post!
Just look at the trends - there has been movement towards McCain. There are polls that show a big Obama lead and ones that show a narrow Obama lead.
What’s important to note is that this poll very likely gives the Dems a huge advantage to the Dems in party turnout.
The finall Gallup Poll, for instance, shows Obama winning 55%-44%, but their internals are 38% Democratic and just 26% Republican! What in the world gives them the idea this is the actual turnout? Pfffff
I’ve said elsewhere that if McCain can get within 2% of the popular vote, he can win the electoral college. Maybe even within 3% would do it. 0bama is going to post huge huge huge numbers in CA, NY, IL.
That's who picked up the phone when they called. It is literally as simple as that.
If Obama wins, it will be the media’s fault and all retribution should be aimed at them and those that support them by paying for advertising.
So only 26% of the people going to vote in this election are Republicans?
Does Gallup actually believe that?
(yawn!)
Here are the under-reported reasons I have collected why McPalin will win from visiting FR way too much.
1) ACORN has been stuffing the Democratic registration lists for years now, especially this year. Pollsters use these stuffed registered-voter lists to poll real people, so if the lists read 60%D, 40%R, the pollster will poll 60 Ds for every 40 Rs. If every D were for Obama and every R were for McCain, Obama ought to be ahead by 20 points in the polls He’s not! Ergo, McCain is actually ahead and doesn’t know it!
2) The press (AP, MSNBC) is starting to turn on Obama. They see what’s happening in the early returns. Please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119327/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119299/posts
3) If you have not considered that Democratic Presidential campaigns would try to browbeat you into thinking that a Democrat win was inevitable, and that you should side with “history,” and vote with everyone, please read http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2117212/posts
4) According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2118129/posts, McCain is polling evenly in early voting exit polls in a county that has 28% more Democrats. Repeat: DEMOCRATS ARE VOTING McPALIN!!!
5) Oh yeah, the “Joe the Plumber” video isn’t the only time Obama has let fly with his “spread the wealth” worldview. He blabbed about it profusely in 2001 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2116921/posts
6) “Polls” that show Obama ahead tell a different story when internals are studied. Please see http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/14/an-eeyore-free-zone for a primer on how polls are cooked. UPDATE: Rasmussen saying McCain ahead in Florida and Ohio.
And now, a brief history lesson of ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS:
1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41%, (+9.75 Reagan) Reagan won 45 states.
1984: Regan 58.77%, Mondale 40.56% (+18.21 Regan) Reagan won 49 states.
1988: Bush 53.37%, Dukakis 45.65% (+7.72 Bush) Bush won 42 states.
1992: Clinton 43.01%, Bush 37.45%, Perot 18.91% (+5.66% Clinton) Clinton won 30 states.
1996: Clinton 49.23%, Dole 40.72%, Perot 8.40% (+8.49% Clinton) Clinton won 31 states.
2000: Bush 47.87%, Gore 48.38% (Gore +0.49%) Bush won 30 states.
2004: Bush 50.73%, Kerry 48.27% (Bush +2.46%) Bush won 31 states.
NO WAY was Obama ever up 14 points! He won’t even break 49%.
7) Hillary and Bill are not acting like they want Obama to win, since she wants to run again in 2012, despite what she alludes to. Notice Hillary has not gotten Berg to cut it out with his “birth certificate” lawsuit.
8) “Hussein” being Obama’s middle name is still news to most people.
9) A picture of Obama dressed as a Muslim (there are at least three) is still worth 1000 words (3000 in this case). Man your email station! Post bills!
10) The PUMAs who know the hows and whys of Hillary getting cheated, will vote Palin, and will pull others. Check out http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=33711&page=3 and http://democrats-against-obama.org. Freeper lonestar67 says, “Surveys have suggested that as many as 20-30% of Democrats may vote for McCain based on the rejection of Hillary. If even fractions of these claims are true, Obama would be hard pressed to win the election— especially in key states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio.”
11) “[Bitter Clingers] to [Religion and Guns]”, will vote McCain, so much so that 22K of the 45K in Grand Junction, Colorado came out to see her http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110920/posts.
12) The Palins ARE America and the conservative base. America and the conservative base will vote accordingly. According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2106836/posts parts of the country that were not fired up about the election, are working for Palin. She draws THOUSANDS at every campaign stop.
13) The NRA has “8 figures” of ads to unload in “swing” states
14) At one point, Obama was only 5 points up in New York! New York!
15) The Democrats were talking about Democratic consultants freaking out over Obama mis-managing his campaign before they settled into poll alteration.
16) The Enemedia is already spreading the meme that if Obama loses, it “is racism”. They see the tea leaves ...
17) The Media was calling the election for Kerry ELECTION MORNING in 2004, and Carter and Reagan polled evenly on election day! SOMEONE is trying to buffalo us with these polls! For more on the history of polls leaning Democrat, please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2106669/posts Both Zogby and Mike McCurry predicted a Kerry win.
18) McCain has only started to play the Ayers card. McCain has not yet played the Tony Rezko, Odinga, ... more at http://www.barackbook.com
19) Plenty of long-time Democratic voters are http://thehill.com/dick-morris/undecideds-should-break-for-mccain-2008-10-28.html Long time Democrat votesrs are unimpressed with Obama, and will not vote for him. Two midwestern transplants have volunteered to me that they know lifelong Democrats who WILL NOT vote for Obama. The 1st hand accounts here on Free Republic about lack of enthusiasm for Obama relative to Kerry similarly bodes poorly for Obama.
20) Obama has only 75% of the Jewish vote last I checked, just like Kerry (comfortable R win). Gore got 90% (close R win). Please see http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_and_the_jewish_vote.php and http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08293/921167-470.stm
21) The Christian base that re-elected Bush in 2004, knows Sarah is more than a Sunday Christian, and is praying for her.
22) McCain opened 50 offices in California. It’s in play! It should be the bluest of the blue, and it is not.
23) Google “Bradley Effect”. Obama is getting poll votes he’ll never get on election day. PUMAs have also agreed to lie to pollsters about supporting Obama, and are encouraging others to do so.
24) Operation Chaos resulted in an overlarge quantity of Democrat registrations that will never ever vote Democratic.
25) Obama’s “spread the wealth” line to Joe the Plumber will cost him undecideds not ready to etch the current class structure in stone.
26) The Enemedia overstating Obama’s popularity will cut two ways. The lazy, and the youth, (core Democrat constituencies) will not brave traffic and lines to vote on election day, since they were lied to by the KGBMedia to believe that Obama has a gigantic lead. In fact, if I worked for the GOP, I’d make sure free beer/music parties were being held outside of every major blue city before/on election day. They’re called “raves”.
27) There is a group playing Jeremiah Wrights ads. Read more about it http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108462/posts, and to donate visit https://www.completecampaigns.com/FR/contribute.asp?campaignid=OCDBPac.
28) The Obama crew already knows they’re going to lose. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110803/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2103037/posts
29) Kerry won the Nickelodeon kids vote 57/43, and Obama won it 51/49! If you don’t think kids vote like their parents, then you got another thing coming! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110843/posts
30) Freeper lonestar67 says, “... the misogynist treatment of Palin by the media elite has provided additional elements to the coming silent backlash— especially among women.”
31) Three people over 50 (white male and two Mexican women), on two occasions, on October 25th, asked me if I know about Obama not being a citizen. My Dad knows, and he emailed all his friends also. Point being, EVERYBODY KNOWS that Obama ain’t benevolently and humbly forthcoming with his birth certificate, and thus something fishy is afoot in Camelot.
32) Polls are meant by the Enemedia, to SHAPE public opinion, not to accurately report it. Get your news here! Stop torturing yourself! We bring the liberal media lies here, and we dissect them through the lenses of Christianity and Conservatism.
Make sure you ...
1) campaign and/or pray and/or donate
2) vote
3) wear the gracious smile of a victor
Fellow Freepers, please feel free to post this list every time you see a Freeper or anyone feeling down, anywhere. No need to credit me or ping or write me.
Let me know if you have any other under-reported reasons for the coming McCain/Palin win.
Please tell me if you think there are mistakes.
Hey Obama supporters!! Taxes kill businesses, which kills jobs, which kills people.
The “internals” are normally released for this poll, so we’ll have to wait and see what that data shows.
-Bob
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