Posted on 11/02/2008 6:30:36 PM PST by BIOCHEMKY
The conventional wisdom, which I share, is that Barack Obama will win this election, perhaps by a healthy margin. But Democrats are nervous wrecks; they're having nightmares that defeat will be snatched from the jaws of victory. To add to their misery (and guard against complacency), here's how that horror film could play out:
In the end, the problem was the LIVs. That's short for "low-information voters," the three fifths of the electorate that show up once every four years to vote for president but mostly hate politics. These are the 75 million folks who didn't vote in the primaries. They don't read newsmagazines or newspapers, don't watch any cable news and don't cast their ballots early. Their allegiance to a candidate is as easily shed as a T shirt. Several million moved to Obama through September and October; they'd heard he handled himself well in the debates. Then, in the last week, the LIVs swung back to the default choice: John McCain. Some had good reasons other than the color of Obama's skin to desert him; many more did not. In October, a study by the Associated Press estimated that Obama's race would cost him 6 percent. The percentage was smaller, but still enough to give the presidency to McCain.
Obama's field organization was superb, so it was no surprise that most of the 18 million Hillary Clinton voters came home to the Democrats; the person-to-person voter contact (and significant resentment about the selection of Sarah Palin) made a big difference. But the huge swath of more than 30 million independents broke heavily for McCain. By piling up overwhelming margins in big blue states like California, New York and Illinois, Obama carried the popular vote, but he ended up like Al Gore in 2000denied admission to the Electoral College.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
Look, it's GOING to happen.
So, relax and enjoy it already.
They did, did they? Somebody ping the PUMAs on FR.
“here’s how that horror film could play out”
They aren’t biased are they?
Can you say Schadenfreude?
I’ve said for the last two weeks that McCain is going to pull out this election.
>>Ive said for the last two weeks that McCain is going to pull out this election.<<
Likewise. I doubled my bet the week before last.
Unfortunately, there are many in the 75 million who want to vote for the winner, which is why the media hyping and spinning the dems to victory is so darned dangerous.
I’ve just got this terrible feeling that given the media will really overplay how well Obama and the rest of the dems are doing to get the above mentioned vote, as well as to try to demoralize and hurt the republican base turnout.
Mark
Every Democrat voter is a ‘low information voter’.
The democrat party advocates for voting rights for murderers, rapists and burglars, and for non-english speakers. These folks are by definition, low-information voters. The democrat party is the natural home of the low information voter.
The Lord our God is on our side and we will win.
I have FAITH in my fellow americans and I think the pundits on the TV shows are full of poop.
That’s it...i’m done now...:)
They might be setting him up for a fall? It sounds likely!
It's those damn redneck racists again ... what are we going to do with those people.
It's for being a MARXIST and SOCIALIST, STUPID!!!
“...most...” = 50.0001%?
It is really the PUMAs who will decide this election. Never thought I would say it in my lifetime (and even now I am hesitant to) but thank god for Hillary. I would rather take on an enemy I know in 2012 than a much more dangerous one I do not in 2008.
What is the sin enshrined in our constitution?
The Obamalama is in trouble and it’s starting to show.
The guy voted three times in favor of legalized infanticide. Let him sweat. And please God, let him lose!
What a sorry @ss article. Whatever happens....a McCain victory or God forbid an Obama win...the free and secret election is what makes our country great. To say “it shouldn’t have happened” is a slap in the face to all who voted for it to happen. I pray to God McCain wins...but I will NOT will NOT discredit all the legal votes that puts the winner over the top. If their are challenges of illegal votes that is one thing—that all will get worked out (or should) but if one candidate has a clear win...then we move on—the people would have spoken and what’s done is done and we transfer power from Bush to whomever in a peaceful manner.
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