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Why McCain Won
NEWSWEEK ^ | Oct 25, 2008 | Jonathan Alter

Posted on 11/02/2008 6:30:36 PM PST by BIOCHEMKY

The conventional wisdom, which I share, is that Barack Obama will win this election, perhaps by a healthy margin. But Democrats are nervous wrecks; they're having nightmares that defeat will be snatched from the jaws of victory. To add to their misery (and guard against complacency), here's how that horror film could play out:

In the end, the problem was the LIVs. That's short for "low-information voters," the three fifths of the electorate that show up once every four years to vote for president but mostly hate politics. These are the 75 million folks who didn't vote in the primaries. They don't read newsmagazines or newspapers, don't watch any cable news and don't cast their ballots early. Their allegiance to a candidate is as easily shed as a T shirt. Several million moved to Obama through September and October; they'd heard he handled himself well in the debates. Then, in the last week, the LIVs swung back to the default choice: John McCain. Some had good reasons other than the color of Obama's skin to desert him; many more did not. In October, a study by the Associated Press estimated that Obama's race would cost him 6 percent. The percentage was smaller, but still enough to give the presidency to McCain.

Obama's field organization was superb, so it was no surprise that most of the 18 million Hillary Clinton voters came home to the Democrats; the person-to-person voter contact (and significant resentment about the selection of Sarah Palin) made a big difference. But the huge swath of more than 30 million independents broke heavily for McCain. By piling up overwhelming margins in big blue states like California, New York and Illinois, Obama carried the popular vote, but he ended up like Al Gore in 2000—denied admission to the Electoral College.

(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; alter; election; jonathanalter; livs; lowinformation; mccain; win
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Hey, it all makes sense, doesn't it?

Look, it's GOING to happen.

So, relax and enjoy it already.

1 posted on 11/02/2008 6:30:37 PM PST by BIOCHEMKY
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To: BIOCHEMKY
Obama's field organization was superb, so it was no surprise that most of the 18 million Hillary Clinton voters came home to the Democrats.

They did, did they? Somebody ping the PUMAs on FR.

2 posted on 11/02/2008 6:33:12 PM PST by pray4liberty (This election will separate the wheat from the tares. Watch, pray, work and VOTE!)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

“here’s how that horror film could play out”

They aren’t biased are they?


3 posted on 11/02/2008 6:33:59 PM PST by Lawdoc (My dad married my aunt, so now my cousins are my brothers. Go figure.)
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To: BIOCHEMKY
Obama's field organization was superb, so it was no surprise that most of the 18 million Hillary Clinton voters came home to the Democrats; the person-to-person voter contact

Can you say Schadenfreude?

4 posted on 11/02/2008 6:34:11 PM PST by IllumiNaughtyByNature (If You Have A BRAIN - You'll Vote For MCCAIN)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

I’ve said for the last two weeks that McCain is going to pull out this election.


5 posted on 11/02/2008 6:34:20 PM PST by no dems ("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
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To: BIOCHEMKY
I find it very interesting that Newsweek would be writing about the defeat of the Liberal Messiah. Don't they think His victory is a fait accompli?
6 posted on 11/02/2008 6:35:36 PM PST by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: no dems

>>I’ve said for the last two weeks that McCain is going to pull out this election.<<

Likewise. I doubled my bet the week before last.


7 posted on 11/02/2008 6:36:09 PM PST by RobRoy (Islam is a greater threat to the world today than Nazism was in the 1930's.)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

Unfortunately, there are many in the 75 million who want to vote for the winner, which is why the media hyping and spinning the dems to victory is so darned dangerous.

I’ve just got this terrible feeling that given the media will really overplay how well Obama and the rest of the dems are doing to get the above mentioned vote, as well as to try to demoralize and hurt the republican base turnout.

Mark


8 posted on 11/02/2008 6:37:06 PM PST by MarkL (Al Gore: The Greenhouse Gasbag! (heard on Bob Brinker's Money Talk))
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To: BIOCHEMKY

Every Democrat voter is a ‘low information voter’.


9 posted on 11/02/2008 6:37:53 PM PST by raptor29
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To: BIOCHEMKY

The democrat party advocates for voting rights for murderers, rapists and burglars, and for non-english speakers. These folks are by definition, low-information voters. The democrat party is the natural home of the low information voter.


10 posted on 11/02/2008 6:38:49 PM PST by Sgt_Schultze
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To: no dems

The Lord our God is on our side and we will win.
I have FAITH in my fellow americans and I think the pundits on the TV shows are full of poop.
That’s it...i’m done now...:)


11 posted on 11/02/2008 6:39:38 PM PST by gimme1ibertee (Obama,the Hope Diamond ,is actually polished Chicago parking-lot glass.)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

They might be setting him up for a fall? It sounds likely!


12 posted on 11/02/2008 6:40:53 PM PST by tallyhoe
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To: BIOCHEMKY
Some had good reasons other than the color of Obama's skin to desert him; many more did not.

It's those damn redneck racists again ... what are we going to do with those people.

13 posted on 11/02/2008 6:40:53 PM PST by tx_eggman ("The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule" - Mencken)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

It's for being a MARXIST and SOCIALIST, STUPID!!!

14 posted on 11/02/2008 6:41:35 PM PST by Colonial Warrior (Never approach a bull from the front, a horse from the rear, or a fool from any direction.)
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To: pray4liberty

“...most...” = 50.0001%?


15 posted on 11/02/2008 6:41:50 PM PST by Chaguito
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To: pray4liberty

It is really the PUMAs who will decide this election. Never thought I would say it in my lifetime (and even now I am hesitant to) but thank god for Hillary. I would rather take on an enemy I know in 2012 than a much more dangerous one I do not in 2008.


16 posted on 11/02/2008 6:41:58 PM PST by wrhssaxensemble
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To: BIOCHEMKY
Millions of people in the rest of the world assume that Barack Obama cannot be elected because he is black. They assume that the original sin of American history—enshrined in our Constitution—cannot be transcended.

What is the sin enshrined in our constitution?

17 posted on 11/02/2008 6:42:39 PM PST by littlehouse36 (If we will not be governed by God, then we will be ruled by tyrants. -- William Penn, 1701)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

The Obamalama is in trouble and it’s starting to show.


18 posted on 11/02/2008 6:42:40 PM PST by cripplecreek (Paying taxes for bank bailouts is apparently the patriotic thing to do. [/sarc])
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To: BIOCHEMKY

The guy voted three times in favor of legalized infanticide. Let him sweat. And please God, let him lose!


19 posted on 11/02/2008 6:44:09 PM PST by Aquinasfan (When you find "Sola Scriptura" in the Bible, let me know)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

What a sorry @ss article. Whatever happens....a McCain victory or God forbid an Obama win...the free and secret election is what makes our country great. To say “it shouldn’t have happened” is a slap in the face to all who voted for it to happen. I pray to God McCain wins...but I will NOT will NOT discredit all the legal votes that puts the winner over the top. If their are challenges of illegal votes that is one thing—that all will get worked out (or should) but if one candidate has a clear win...then we move on—the people would have spoken and what’s done is done and we transfer power from Bush to whomever in a peaceful manner.


20 posted on 11/02/2008 6:45:07 PM PST by Illinois Rep
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