Posted on 11/01/2008 5:07:01 AM PDT by vwatto
Election 2008: Pennsylvania Presidential Election Obama Leads By Four in Pennsylvania
Saturday, November 01, 2008
In Pennsylvania, John McCain is getting closer, but Barack Obama is still attracting a majority of voters.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state shows Obama with 51% of the vote while McCain picks up 47%. That four-point advantage for Obama is down from a seven-point margin earlier in the week and a 13-point advantage for Obama earlier in the month.
Just 75% of Pennsylvania Democrats now support their party’s nominee, down from 86% in the previous survey. Obama is doing a bit better among unaffiliated voters while Republican support for McCain remains steady (see crosstabs).
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I don’t care WHAT the top number says: If either man is getting only 75% of his base he can’t win.
This poll is insane on its face.
The Democrat registration in Pennsylvania is at least 42%. This means lots of Republicans are voting Obama which is very unlikely. It also means our friend Scott has been lied to by many people.
Obama can’t win with support from only 3/4 of Dems right now. That number probably gets a little lower on election day.
IMO, Obama is toast if GOP voters get out to the polls. This also bodes well for McCain’s chances in OH, which, while similar demographically, always performs better for the GOP than PA.
Now this is wonderful news. There is something going on under the covers of this election. Don’t fret or get upset we can win this!
Remember Sarah Palin guaranteed a win in PA. You cannot dismiss this as idle bluster. Sarah is not prone to ‘rhetorical flourish’.
“We barely squeaked by last time”
What do you mean “We”?
It’s obvious you are here to try to demoralize us in support of Obama.
I think it is massive. Check out the Cone of Silence article a few threads prior.
Obama supporters are getting real nervous after FINALLY hearing about his background these past few days. When they go into the booth and close the curtain, it will be the moment of Truth. I can not believe their gut feelings will allow them to throw caution to the wind and pull the trigger for Obama. Lord, please bless this country and save us once more from the evil that could destroy this Nation that was founded on the words of the Holy Bible.
Ironically, his Pennsylvania numbers are exactly the same as his national numbers, which in turn are farther apart than other polls. That might be because he tends to oversample 'Rats. (Traditionally, registered Republicans are more likely to vote than regigstered 'Rats.)
The Bradley effect may also be very much at play here.
Ironically, his Pennsylvania numbers are exactly the same as his national numbers, which in turn are farther apart than other polls. That might be because he tends to oversample 'Rats. (Traditionally, registered Republicans are more likely to vote than registered 'Rats.)
The Bradley effect may also be very much at play here.
As ambivelant as the GOP would have been FOR McCain, hopefully Obama is such an extreme candidate that the GOP would make a point to vote for McCain for fear of the radical Obama.
If McCain can pick up only 2 points over the weekend, which is very doable, he'll be "in the sweet spot" and the undecideds will break his way to finish the job!
Oh yeah, and I believe that if the DNC had put Hillary up, she would have won.
People wouldn’t have been as apt to vote for McCain for fear of her like they are for fear of Obama.
If BHO is only getting 80% of the Dem base there is no way in holy hell he is going to win this election. This is the dirty little secret about this election year. Meanwhile, the GOP base will be about 93-95%. This is a recipe for disaster for BHO. Even if there is a 5% gap between Dems and GOP.
If this is true, then Obama ISN'T getting the majority of the voters.
The Democrats are leading in numbers voting, but Obama is losing 25% of them!
Isn’t it a shame that we have become like those first Christians, hiding in caves and whispering “passwords” to each other in the streets because of “political correctness”?
Where I live, there is [or should say *was*] -1- OB sign.
It was put up a month and half ago.
In the last month, McCain signs have been springing up like dandelions on a summer lawn.
That one OB sign started to look like the guest of honor at a firing squad.
I noticed last week that it is now just gone.
And no, no one here would’ve taken it or otherwise molested it...it’s just not our way.
I don’t know if the owner of it “changed” his mind or just started feeling really, *really* surrounded and paranoid.
Whatever the case, I’m overjoyed that I no longer have that irritated wave of nausea while passing it on the way to town.
Here, if you seem to be vacillating, people will just bellow at you “You’re not voting McCain? Why the hell not?”.
[If you still seem iffy, you’ll get a laundry list of reasons why you’re an idiot]....LOL
I hope I always live in a place of such unabashed freedom.
[and I’m voting against Zero to make sure of it]
Also, the link to his electoral map shows that he has Montana, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina as "tossups".
It's getting increasingly difficult to take Rasmussen seriously at least in this election.
Try actually READING the article.
The Democrats are getting more votes, but Obama is losing 25% of them!
He will be blown out if that trend is true!
Over at Hedgehog, Polaris who is a statistics wizard, says that if the internals in the poll hold, Obama is “toast”.
FOR OBAMA TO WIN THE ELECTION, LET ALONE PA, HE ABSOLUTELY MUST GET 90% OF THE DEM VOTE.
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