Hizbullah’s commanders continued to operate. Its units continued to launch missiles and rockets against Israeli territory. Iran and Syria continued to supply the group with arms and personnel. As for the Lebanese military whose forces were supposed to be part of the long-term solution, far from opposing Hizbullah, its forces actively assisted Hizbullah in targeting Israeli cities and military targets throughout the war.
Due to Hizbullah’s resilience in the face of the air campaign, it quickly became apparent that Israel’s strategy needed to be replaced. To defeat Hizbullah, Israel needed to adopt a maneuver strategy that tasked ground forces with invading and conquering South Lebanon. To effect the long-term demise of the Iranian-controlled and Syrian-assisted group, Israel also needed to bomb Hizbullah-related targets in Syria. Such attacks would deter Iran and Syria from employing Hizbullah as their foreign legion in Lebanon in the future. Only after Iran and Syria had been deterred and Hizbullah had been defeated on the ground could the Lebanese military begin to act as a controlling authority in the south.
But when presented with this reality, Israel’s political and military leaders refused to countenance it. They clung to the notion that airpower and Lebanese military deployment to the South could serve as the primary components of a winning strategy. Tipping their hats to the public outcry provoked by the strategy’s self-evident failure, they embellished it by adding a limited ground component to the operational plan.
But since the strategy remained one based on airpower, maneuver units were provided with no clear operational objectives. With no relevant strategic frame of reference to guide them, the General Staff commanders couldn’t determine how to use the ground forces. And so they were deployed willy-nilly to battles that served no operational purpose.
The failure of the country’s strategic leadership to base their strategy on reality caused Israel to fail to achieve its stated objectives in the war. And Israel’s failure constituted a massive victory for Hizbullah and its state sponsors. With the passive support of the Lebanese military, in May Hizbullah staged a coup that won it effective control over the Lebanese government. And with the passive support of the Lebanese military, Hizbullah has rearmed and reasserted full control over South Lebanon.
For its part, unscathed by the 2006 war it effectively controlled with Iran, Syria now feels confident enough to plan a reinvasion of Lebanon. Today Syria has 10,000 troops positioned on Lebanon’s northern border. Damascus is openly preparing a pretext for invasion by waging a proxy war in Tripoli through its Lebanese Salafist militias.
THE LESSONS of Israel’s failure in 2006 are clear. First, Hizbullah cannot be defeated on the ground without invading and conquering South Lebanon. Second, Hizbullah cannot be defeated without attacking its state sponsors. Third, the Lebanese military will not fight Hizbullah in Israel’s place.
In addition to their reliance on ignoring the lessons of their previous failures, the current US and Israeli strategies for contending with Lebanon also share an outsized estimation of the relevance of the Lebanese government. Specifically, both policies wrongly view the government of Lebanon as a relevant force in the country. They diverge only on how they relate to the government. The US believes that the Lebanese government is a credible ally. Israel on the other hand sees the Hizbullah-dominated government as its enemy.
There is ample evidence supporting both positions. But the basic reality that both Washington and Jerusalem ignore is that whether it is a friend or a foe, the Lebanese government today - as it was in 1983 and indeed since the PLO fomented the Lebanese civil war in 1975 - is completely inconsequential. Some elements of its military are pro-Western. Overall, both during the 2006 war and during Hizbullah’s coup in May, the Lebanese military has facilitated Hizbullah’s operations. Its former commander Michel Suleiman owes his position as president of Lebanon to the support he enjoys from Hizbullah and Syria. And regardless of its commanders’ political views, the fact of the matter is that the Lebanese army is incapable of establishing and enforcing the authority of the central government over the country. Moreover, since May, Lebanon’s central government exists at the pleasure and in the service of Hizbullah.
So both Israel and the US are now embracing policies that are founded on false readings of the facts on the ground and on a refusal to countenance the lessons of their past failures. As a consequence, both countries have adopted policies that are doomed to fail. Moreover, their divergent assessments of the Lebanese government place them on a collision course that can threaten their alliance.
In light of all of this, Hizbullah, Syria and Iran have good reason to be happy. When the next war erupts, rather than fighting them, their two greatest foes may well spend their time and energy fighting each other.
No doubt Hezbollah will be grateful. Another brilliant coup by the State Department. Just as long as there is "continuity" in our policy they think they have been successful, regardless of the facts on the ground.
In addition to the situation in Lebanon, which is appalling (doesn't anyone at the State Department even read a newspaper? Why are we sending military equipment to the pathetic, incompetent Lebanese Army?) her ridiculous policy regarding the Palestinians is about to collapse completely.
By January, Fatah and Hamas will be fighting a civil war for control of the West Bank.
And who do you think will win? The corrupt, bloated, poorly-trained and poorly led Fatah forces (although there are reports that the US is traing elite Fatah units in Jordan - now there's a real dandy idea!), or the vicious, fanatical, jihad-driven lunatics of Hamas?
We are headed right towards the perfect storm. Just wait until the One becomes President. We will all look back on the sober realism of the Bush years.