Associated Press photos Both Barack Obama and John McCain must focus on states that Bush won in 2004.
Posted on 06/05/2008 9:39:47 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Associated Press photos Both Barack Obama and John McCain must focus on states that Bush won in 2004.
In many states that President Bush captured in the 2004 election, Barack Obama has swelled the ranks of Democrats by the thousands, drawing record numbers of young people and African Americans to the polls.
But will this enthusiasm -- which propelled his victory Tuesday in the race for the Democratic nomination -- deliver enough of these states to Obama to win the presidency?
That question is on the minds of strategists plotting the Democratic Party's drive to retake the White House. In national polls, Obama runs about even with Republican John McCain, but he cannot win the 270 electoral votes he needs unless he picks up states that Bush won.
McCain, for his part, must hold all of Bush's states, or else carry some new ones to make up for any losses.
"Everybody's top priorities will be those 12 to 15 swing states that were close in 2004," said Charles Black, a senior McCain advisor.
For weeks, Obama and McCain have crossed paths in those states, with a particular emphasis on Florida. When South Dakota and Montana handed Obama the delegates needed to clinch the nomination Tuesday night, he did not celebrate in either state, but in Minnesota -- a state that is crucial for Democrats to hold.
Obama is running in a climate that strongly favors Democrats. Advisors say he is well-placed to expand the map of Democratic states to Colorado and Virginia, a pair of Bush states now more friendly to his party -- and might even add such GOP strongholds as Georgia.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
All of the idiots Obama has been associated with SHOULD be an issue, but there’s no way in hell McCain is going to mention ANY of them. McCain is far more concerned with ‘reaching out to the other side’ and playing Mr. Nice Guy.
Just like issues like immigration and drilling for oil, McCain and his staff will take this golden opportunity to hammer Obama and will throw it right out the window (by agreeng with Obama). Naked stupidity. Add to this the fact that he has almost completely abandoned the conservative base and I don’t see McCain winning... he might even lose by a landslide.
I’m very much expecting an outcome similar to Clinton/Dole. After all, we have the teflon, charismatic, hope candidate Clinton-like Obama vs. the gruff, old, Republican who will be defined by the media as he will not define himself Dole II: McCain.
OK, say Obama could win.
It will NOT be in a landslide...it wouldn’t be by any more of an electoral margin than Bush did.
Just because Obama draws crowds doesn’t mean he can win. Remember Mondale’s crowds? He barely won Minnesota, big crowds and rock star popularity doesn’t translate to votes.
Dole was never competitive in polls though.
OK. Your map is about the absolute-worst-case scenario.
We have to remember the Bradley Effect. Google it if you’re not familiar.
Spend some time with blue-collar union workers in OH and Michigan. These guys usually vote Dem. Listen to them talk.
Then come back and tell me these guys will vote for Obama. Ain’t happenin.
I'll have to do some research. I remember it quite differently while working on Dole's campaign. It seems like he didn't slip in the polls until after the convention, tanked after his lack of charisma showed in the debates, and managed a big bump to make it less of a wipe-out at the end.
I honestly can’t remember, but it was always pretty much assumed that Clinton would win in 1996.
Today, you have a lot of people saying McCain will win this, I didn’t get that sense in ‘96 at all for Dole.
The “American Idol” vote didn’t go for Bush either, what’s your point?
I spend my time here in Tennessee. I believe, from the way things feel like 1996 here, that Tennessee will be a “surprise” Dem pick up in November. It feels exactly like 1996 in the conversations I have.
In 1996, at first, there was a great feeling that a doormat could beat Clinton, his negatives were so bad. Then Dole won the nomination and proved he was below a doormat in his ability to reach out to Conservatives.
McCain has been running ads in Michigan, and they are for the general (obviously). Thanks Ernest.
Yes, I do remember that.
However, McCain himself polls better than the other Republicans did...that wasn’t true for Dole.
I guess we’ll see.
If Obama wins, I dunno what will happen. I fear we’ll cease to exist as a nation. I’m only 30 years old, if I were 80 I might not care so much.
You must sleep a lot better than I do. If McCain can win Massachusetts, he'll win 40 states, or more.
I'm seeing polls with McCain down in Ohio, Missouri, and Iowa. If he loses in those, Obama will win 40 states.
Iowa will be tough - for some reason they like him there.
That’s why it stands for Idiots Out Walking Around.
OH and MO will fall in line behind McCain.
But Robert Murdock says Obama’s gonna win by a landslide. What say you on that, oh wise one?
and don’t be calling me a butt monkey.
Somebody must of been wishful drinking!
I don’t see it happening.
If Obama does win, it will be in a squeaker. I place those chances at <35%.
Obama has been polling better against McCain lately, because he hasn’t been challenged. Now that he’s the nominee (for all intents and purposes) it’s a head to head...for a while, it was all Hillary and Obama in the news.
Obama trails BADLY among white men, something like 80/20 McCain to Obama in this group. Add that to his trouble among women, and McCain’s in good shape.
These are the things the media forgets about when they’re having their Obasms.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.