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Threat Matrix: August 2007
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Posted on 08/01/2007 10:32:19 PM PDT by nwctwx

:::FreeRepublic's Threat Matrix:::
Disaster Looms in Pakistan

Decorum was abandoned as accusations ricocheted between the wood-panelled walls of Pakistan's national assembly on Monday night. "Murderers! Murderers of innocent people!" screamed an MP from a religious party, his yellow turban shaking as he wagged a finger towards the government benches.

Five female parliamentarians, their faces concealed behind black and white burkas, slapped the benches with open palms. Another mullah stood up and started shouting. The speaker strained to maintain order.

Others were less captivated by the debate on last month's siege of the Red Mosque, in which more than 100 people died. One man snoozed at his desk. Across the vast hall others started whispered conversations. And high above them Muhammad Ali Jinnah, a dapper man with a pinched, clean-shaven face, looked on impassively from his giant portrait on the wall. Full story...

Critical Threats: Blank When None
Threat Matrix:
August 2007
Click for Color Code Information


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: adamgadahn; afghanistan; alqaeda; alqaida; bus; china; denmark; epr; ferries; ferry; florida; france; gadahn; gangs; globaljihad; hamas; hezbollah; hizballah; hizbullah; hlf; holylandfoundation; india; internet; iran; iraq; jamesujaama; jihad; jolo; mexico; morocco; ms13; pakistan; philippines; russia; syria; taleban; taliban; threatmatrix; ujaama; vatech; virginiatech
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To: All

PERSECUTION.ORG
http://www.persecution.org

#

http://www.assistnews.net/Stories/2007/s07080108.htm

Sunday, August 12, 2007

“Torture of Degar Montagnard Christian reported as fact in foreign media;Victim has now fled to Cambodia as entire village has been threatened
Newspaper report says Degar Montagnard was tortured for two days after meeting UNHCR officials and that village meeting was staged for visiting international officials”

By Michael Ireland
Chief Correspondent, ASSIST News Service


961 posted on 08/13/2007 4:00:53 AM PDT by Cindy
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To: All

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=iran
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=ahmadinejad

#

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1880376/posts

“Iran President To Tour Central Asia”
TurkishPress ^ | August 13, 2007

Posted on 08/13/2007 4:02:33 AM PDT by Fennie

TEHRAN (AFP)


962 posted on 08/13/2007 4:07:18 AM PDT by Cindy
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To: All

http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_1161.html

PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Office of the Spokesman
This information is current as of today, Mon Aug 13 2007 04:15:39 GMT-0700.

Worldwide Caution

April 10, 2007


963 posted on 08/13/2007 4:15:38 AM PDT by Cindy
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To: All

http://www.truthusa.com/IRAN.html

#

UPDATE:

http://www.wtop.com/?nid=251&sid=1147716

“Wife of Missing FBI Agent Heads to Iran”
August 13, 2007 - 4:58am
J.J. Green, WTOP Radio

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “WASHINGTON — Frustrated with the lack of information about her missing husband, the wife a former FBI agent is taking action on her own.

Christine Levinson is going to Iran to look for her husband Bob, who went to the Island of Kish in March and hasn’t been heard from since.

For Levinson, the silence has been deafening.

U.S. and Swiss authorities have been doing what they can, but for Levinson, it’s not enough.

“It’s been five months now and I am having a very difficult time just waiting,” she says.

When asked what she was hoping to accomplish in Iran she said, “I’m hoping to find Bob when I get there and bring him home with me. I’m hoping meet with anyone in authority in Iran who can help me do that.”

Levinson expects to leave any day now.

She and Bob have seven children, ranging in age from 13 to 30.”


964 posted on 08/13/2007 4:29:37 AM PDT by Cindy
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To: All

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=hamas

#

Note: The following news brief is a quote:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3436958,00.html

Israeli Arab man arrested over link to terrorists

Published: 08.13.07, 12:10 / Israel News

An Arab Israeli man was arrested for buying illegal weapons and funneling them to Hamas terrorists who carried out a terror attack last May.

Maanan Mohammad Khalaila, 21, is suspected of supplying automatic rifles to two Hamas gunmen who carried out a shooting attack against IDF troops in the West Bank. The gunmen were killed by soldiers. (Efrat Weiss)


965 posted on 08/13/2007 4:34:20 AM PDT by Cindy
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To: All

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/08/12/freeway.shootout.ap/index.html

“Gunman opens fire on freeway, killing 2 and then himself”

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “DALLAS (AP) — A man with a shotgun opened fire on motorists and police who stopped to help with what appeared to be a wreck on a downtown freeway early Sunday, killing two people and wounding two others before taking his own life, authorities said.

Authorities say they may never know why 20-year-old Nick A. Salinas of Cedar Hill started shooting. He killed himself with the shotgun used in the slayings.”


966 posted on 08/13/2007 4:40:03 AM PDT by Cindy
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To: Velveeta

Hi Vel, good to see you again! I don’t make it around these parts too much anymore, but I’m pleased to see that you guys are carrying on. With all of the stuff brewing around the world, I’m surprised that the other shoe hasn’t dropped yet, but maybe we’ve had some successes behind the scenes. Take care.


967 posted on 08/13/2007 5:26:48 AM PDT by thecabal
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To: Cindy

Thank you for that information. Well worth reading. Makes me wonder what makes a person so pariod that they stalk someone accross the net.


968 posted on 08/13/2007 5:54:45 AM PDT by Mata6858 (We the people of the US in order for a perfect union)
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To: neverendinghunt
“Admittedly once in a while you’ll catch me in a rant, it happens. But NOT 20 times in 50 posts! OT my friend is off-topic, which nwctwx made pretty clear in post #813.”

The only person making 20 posts of OT crap is you and your rants. You are the only person complaining and daily. If you want to be the boss of something then start your own thread. TM was started a few years ago and has been maintained by dedicated posters that work together and all have something to provide.

“I’m sticking around but would like to see less 16yr old labia cutting and more info on the terorrism threat. Understood?”

Suggestion, you might want to consider removing the burr that you obviously have.

969 posted on 08/13/2007 6:52:12 AM PDT by drymans wife (They is nothing like the mind of a TM;'er)
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To: neverendinghunt

I think you’ve made your point. :)


970 posted on 08/13/2007 8:12:53 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: nwctwx; Cindy; All

Thank you for taking this Thread over from Piper.

I appreciate the dedication and the way everyone works in tandem with each other.

Sometimes we go about our business and we don’t stop to think about the time that has been put into TM.

Thank You :)


971 posted on 08/13/2007 8:26:30 AM PDT by drymans wife (They is nothing like the mind of a TM;'er)
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To: Oorang; Cindy; JellyJam; callmejoe; nwctwx; All

The empty camps has followed a period where the Tali/AQ have lost major leaders who had directed the terror campaign in Afghanistan. There is evidence that the command is decentralizing due to the effectiveness of our intel and rapid action response.

There are also apparently rumors about US forces moving into Pakistan after these ‘bases’. Remember recently that we hit a major gathering on the Paki side, nailing something like 100 of their main leaders. As I’ve said before, the Tali/AQ are dispersing either in response to a perceived threat of preemptive strike or expecting a retalatory strike (due to a major attack against US).

More details here:
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/20070813.aspx

With Musharraf’s threatened position, if AQ were to launch a strike against the US, now would be a good time as Musharraf would be hard pressed to help in the strike back and the US possibly reluctant due to the empty camps as well as to avoid potential backlash against Mushie. Throw in the question about the safety of Paki nukes and things could get dicey real fast.


972 posted on 08/13/2007 8:27:54 AM PDT by Godzilla (Be nice to your kids. They'll choose your nursing home.)
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To: Godzilla; Cindy; nwctwx; Oorang; Rushmore Rocks; Velveeta; JellyJam; All

The Guns of August . . .

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-alqaeda20jul20,1,47411.story?track=rss

Al Qaeda widespread in Pakistan

Anti-terrorism officials and experts say a U.S. report incorrectly focuses on the group’s strength in border areas.

By Josh Meyer, Times Staff Writer
July 20, 2007 (excerpted)

WASHINGTON — Al Qaeda has strongholds throughout Pakistan, not just in the areas bordering Afghanistan that were emphasized in a terrorism assessment this week, according to U.S. intelligence officials and counter-terrorism experts who say Osama bin Laden’s network is more deeply entrenched than described.

The National Intelligence Estimate on the Terrorist Threat to the U.S. Homeland, which reflects the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, described Al Qaeda as having “regenerated key elements” and freely operating from bases in northwestern Pakistan. But several officials and outside experts interviewed since the document’s release this week say the situation is more problematic. These analysts said the Bush administration was blaming Al Qaeda’s resurgence too narrowly on an agreement that the Pakistani government struck in September with militant tribal leaders in the country’s northwest territories.

In recent years, U.S. intelligence and counter-terrorism officials who focus on South Asia say they have watched with growing concern as Al Qaeda has moved men, money and recruiting and training operations into Pakistani cities such as Quetta and Karachi as well as less populated areas. Militant Islamists are still a minority in Pakistan, commanding allegiance of a little more than 10% of the population, judging by election results. But Al Qaeda has been able to widen its sway throughout the country by strengthening alliances with fundamentalist religious groups, charities, criminal gangs, elements of the government security forces and even some political officials, these officials said.

Bin Laden’s network also has strengthened ties to groups fighting for control of Kashmir, most of which is held by India, a broadly popular cause throughout Pakistan that has the backing of the government and military. “It is a much bigger problem than just saying it is a bunch of tribal Islamists in the fringe areas,” said Bruce Riedel, a South Asia expert who served at the CIA, National Security Council and Pentagon and retired last year after 30 years of counterterrorism and policymaking experience. . .

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/08/10/pakistan.nuclear/index.html

Sources: U.S. assessing Pakistan nukes if Musharraf falls

From Barbara Starr
CNN Washington Bureau (excerpted)

WASHINGTON (CNN) — U.S. military intelligence officials are urgently assessing how secure Pakistan’s nuclear weapons would be in the event President Gen. Pervez Musharraf were replaced as the nation’s leader, CNN has learned. . .

The current review is a result of recent developments in that country, including the prospect that Musharraf could still declare a national emergency that would give him sweeping powers. Although the Pakistani government ruled out the declaration Thursday, the three sources told CNN that the United States thinks Musharraf may still impose those measures. . .

The United States has full knowledge about the location of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, according to the U.S. assessment. But the key questions, officials say, are what would happen and who would control the weapons in the hours after any change in government in case Musharraf were killed or overthrown.

Musharraf controls the loyalty of the commanders and senior officials in charge of the nuclear program, but those loyalties could shift at any point, officials say. The United States is not certain who might start controlling nuclear launch codes and weapons if that shift in power were to happen.

There is also a growing understanding according to the U.S. analysis that Musharraf’s control over the military remains limited to certain top commanders and units, raising worries about whether he can maintain control over the long term. The U.S. officials also say one of the key problems for the U.S. military is what restrictions on U.S.-Pakistani military cooperation could be imposed if Musharraf were to impose heavy security restrictions in his country.

http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/03spring/malik.htm

The China Factor in the
India-Pakistan Conflict

MOHAN MALIK

From Parameters, Spring 2003, pp. 35-50.

(excerpted)

War Scenarios

It is said that each conflict simply prepares the ground for the next one or every war contains the seeds of another. The Afghan War of the 1980s against the Soviet occupation culminated in the war on terrorism in 2001. Whether the war on terrorism will lead to another war or a clash of civilizations or a nuclear jihad in South Asia, only time will tell. Pakistan is, in the words of former Italian Foreign Minister Gianni De Michelis, “the fuse of the world.” . . .

One Chinese national security analyst argues that “what worries China more is the possibility that it could be drawn into a conflict, not between Pakistan and India per se, but between Pakistan and the United States, with the latter using India as a surrogate.”48 With the top al Qaeda and Taliban leadership fleeing into Pakistan’s Wild West and Pakistani-held Kashmir, Beijing knows full well that Pakistan is no longer the “frontline state” in the war on terrorism that it once was; it is, in fact, the battlefield in the war on terror.49 Should the India-Pakistani conflict escalate into a nuclear one, neither the geopolitical nor the radioactive fallout will remain limited to South Asia. Indeed, the most worrisome scenario would be one where Pakistan is losing a conventional conflict and uses tactical nuclear weapons in a desperate effort to win or to salvage a face-saving defeat that would allow the regime to survive. (The risk-taking nature of the Pakistani military leadership suggests that such a scenario cannot be completely ruled out.) Should India respond by launching strategic nuclear strikes resulting in the complete destruction of the Pakistani state, China would find it difficult to sit idly by.

The next India-Pakistan war also could bring the United States and Pakistan on a collision course, with or without India acting as a US partner. Such a development would obviously present China with difficult choices. Open support for its closest ally would jeopardize China’s relations with the United States and India. But nonintervention on Pakistan’s behalf could encourage India to solve “the Pakistan problem” once and for all, with or without a nuclear exchange, and thereby tilt the regional balance of power decisively in its favor. . .

Should post-Musharraf Pakistan disintegrate or be taken over by Islamic extremists, a new level of instability would rock the region and increase tensions among Pakistan, India, and China. Another dreadful scenario is one in which Chinese-made Pakistani nuclear weapons fall into the hands of the United States, Israel, or even India in the event of a civil war should al Qaeda or the Taliban declare jihad against Pakistan—the weakest ally in the US-led anti-terrorism coalition.51 India would be tempted to militarily intervene in Pakistan if Islamists gain control over the nuclear weapons of its neighbor, either through a coup or civil war.52 Such a scenario could reveal information regarding China’s own nuclear program and the extent of help provided by Beijing to Islamabad. The scenario of Pakistan in splinters, with one piece becoming a radical Muslim state in possession of nuclear weapons, can no longer be simply rejected as an alarmist fantasy. . .

In the final analysis, Beijing’s response to the next India-Pakistan war will be shaped by its desire to protect Chinese national interests, no matter what the cost. Geostrategic concerns require China to covertly side with Pakistan, while publicly calling for restraint by both sides and appearing to be even-handed. In the triangular power balance game, the South Asian military balance of power is neither pro-India nor pro-Pakistan, it has always been pro-China. And Beijing will take all means possible, including war, to ensure that the regional power balance does not tilt in India’s favor. . .


973 posted on 08/13/2007 9:19:24 AM PDT by callmejoe
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To: All

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBflQLa75C8
Interesting Video

The Right to be Free


974 posted on 08/13/2007 9:41:27 AM PDT by Mata6858 (We the people of the US in order for a perfect union)
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To: Mata6858

THAT WAS AWSOME!!!!!!!!!!!!


975 posted on 08/13/2007 9:55:12 AM PDT by drymans wife (They is nothing like the mind of a TM;'er)
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To: Velveeta

Interesting, thanks Velveeta.


976 posted on 08/13/2007 10:17:21 AM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: neverendinghunt; texpat72; celtic-cat; drymans wife; Cindy; nwctwx
Look I have also been here for years...

Considering your FR sign up date is July 9, 2007 you have not been here "for years". Perhaps you have lurked/trolled "for years" but you have not been a contributing member of TM "for years".

In fact, IMO, you are still NOT a contributing member of TM. You have not contributed one single post of value. You have posted your self-admitted drunken rants and posts of complaint. Again, nothing of value. You don't have a leg to stand on here.

977 posted on 08/13/2007 10:29:02 AM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: Oorang

“In fact, IMO, you are still NOT a contributing member of TM. You have not contributed one single post of value. You have posted your self-admitted drunken rants and posts of complaint. Again, nothing of value. You don’t have a leg to stand on here.”

DITTO, DITTO, DITTO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


978 posted on 08/13/2007 10:56:13 AM PDT by drymans wife (They is nothing like the mind of a TM;'er)
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To: neverendinghunt; Cindy; nwctwx

You did not direct that post at me but I can’t stay quiet any longer.

IF you have been reading the TM thread for any length of time at all you would know that there are times that a few of the posts between members get off topic. And furthermore, the off topic chat does not last more than a few posts.

Ian and Cindy made it very clear to you that if you had a problem with posts in this thread to take it private. Yet, you continue to ignore their warnings.

YOU are the one who continues to disrupt this thread because you seem to not like some of the valuable posts that Cindy and others put up for us to read. Well too freaking bad.

Take your demands and hit the door.
To quote you >> Understood?<<


979 posted on 08/13/2007 11:37:31 AM PDT by KylaStarr
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To: JellyJam; Cindy; nwctwx; Godzilla; Velveeta; callmejoe; drymans wife; All
Three Oaks Park closed as suspicious package is investigated (Florida)
August 13, 2007

Members of the regional bomb squad suit up at Three Oaks Community Park in San Carlos Park on Monday, August 13, to investigate a suspicious object found by a maintenance worker earlier in the morning.

The Lee County Sheriff's office closed Three Oaks Community Park and the parking lot in San Carlos Park to investigate a suspicious package reported this morning. A maintenance worker found a suspicious football-shaped object wrapped in black tape with a wick-like item protruding from the top.

Lee and Collier County Sheriff's Offices responded to investigate, along with the State Fire Marshall and the regional bomb squad. The situation ended shortly before 11 a.m., when officers detonated the mysterious object with the bomb squad robot.

http://www.bonitanews.com/news/2007/aug/13/three_oaks_park_closed_suspicious_package_investig/?latest

Taliban hand over 2 S. Koreans to Afghan elders
Aug 13 2007

Taliban militiamen who abducted 23 South Korean Christian aid workers last month handed over two ill female hostages to Afghan elders as promised on Monday, a district chief told Kyodo News.

The chief of the Andar district in Ghazni Province told Kyodo News that the two women were being taken by the Afghan elders to the provincial headquarters of the Afghan Red Crescent Society in Ghazni, the provincial capital of the same name. The development comes amid the holding of direct talks between South Korean diplomats and the Taliban abductors since Friday over the fate of South Korean Christian aid workers, mostly women, who were abducted in Ghazni on July 19. Two of the original 23 have been slain.

Excerpted

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8R04OR00&show_article=1&catnum=0

Libya 'looking to buy powerful French reactor'
13 August 2007

Libya is seeking to purchase from France one of the most powerful nuclear reactors in the world, French daily Le Parisien reports, citing an official at CEA, France's state atomic energy commissariat.

Tripoli is said to have proposed buying the 3 billion euros EPR pressurised water reactor from French company Areva - of which CEA is the principal stakeholder. Last month Libya signed a controversial accord with France to build a nuclear reactor for water desalination among a raft of other deals sealed during a visit by French president Nicolas Sarkozy to the North African country. Areva told Le Parisien that Libya expressed interest late in June in acquiring the pressurised water reactor. The company said it has presented its product to the Libyan authorities and immediately opened "preliminary discussions."

Excerpted

http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/English/Security/?id=1.0.1201361741

980 posted on 08/13/2007 11:42:26 AM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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