Posted on 10/10/2006 8:46:24 PM PDT by Red Steel
Sunset Edition
A new poll shows Democrat Jay Fawcett tied with Republican Doug Lamborn in the race for an open congressional seat in a district that historically has been solidly in GOP hands.
Each has support from 37 percent of respondents in a poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, while 26 percent of respondents in the six-county district were undecided. The poll of 400 likely voters, conducted Oct. 3-7, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
It appears that Lamborn is now the first Republican who has ever had to fight hard to take that seat, said Bob Loevy, a political science professor at Colorado College. A seat that should not have been competitive for the Democratic Party, as a result of a number of unusual events coming together if the poll is correct now appears to be competitive.
The district, created in 1972, has never been represented by a Democrat, and Republican-registered voters outnumber Democrats two-to-one.
More details in tomorrow's Gazette
That means there are a lot of undecideds.
This must be one of those "7 to 30" seats (uh, which one is it, anyway?) that the Washington Compost mention. In 2 or 3 weeks, this GOP seat will no longer even be on the map. The same will be true for those other seats that are supposedly "in play" today.
I also read a Denver Post piece claiming Democrats could pick up Butch Otter's open seat in Idaho, both of Nevada's Republican seats, the Wyoming seat, and Marilyn Musgrave's seat in Colorado.
These people really do live in fantasy land.
If Democrats win the CO-5, hell will truly have frozen over. Districts don't get much more conservative than Colorado Springs. I'm skeptical of this poll.
The dem candidate is running attack ads proclaiming that Lamborn is for cutting veterans benefits by a huge amount. So the dem is not running like the race is tied but like he is desperate. dem candidate thinks veterans in the district are stupid.
Colorado polls tend to underestimate Republican strength. It may be due to all the military here, I don't know. Anyway, this is a safe Republican seat - unless there's some kind of tidal wave and everything goes left.
The only environment that would have the Dems winning in Idaho and CO-5, would have them picking up 100+ seats across the country. That's insane -- they're overplaying their hand. No way there are more than 40-50 competitive races, of which the Dems will win no more than half. We may lose the House, but the House GOP is not exactly on the brink of extinction.
I'm not saying this poll is correct or full of it but Colorado seems to leaning left more and more since all the Californians moved here.
26% undecided? That makes this poll useless.
That said, Lamborn made a lot of enemies in the primary because of the nasty campaign he ran. He is not well respected or well liked by many Republicans. This might give you an idea of what's going on:
Hefley wont run, but blasts Lamborn campaign
By ED SEALOVER THE GAZETTE
Congressman Joel Hefley said Tuesday that he will stick to his plan to retire at the end of the year, despite an effort to have him seek re-election as a write-in candidate.
The 20-year Republican congressman said, however, that he will not back GOP nominee Doug Lamborn for the seat, explaining that he can not condone the way the state senator campaigned in a six-way primary.
I feel that he ran the most sleazy, dishonest campaign Ive seen in a long, long time, and I can not support it, Hefley said in a telephone interview. He is in Oklahoma for a cousins funeral.
Neither Lamborn nor his campaign manager could be reached for comment Tuesday morning.
Several Republicans revealed on Monday that they have been conducting a three-week push for Hefley to take the improbable step of running as a write-in. The effort, which had involved national political consultants and elected officials, was a reaction to widespread dislike of Lamborn, party activist Peggy Littleton said.
Hefley said Tuesday that despite listening to a number of people, he had not seriously considered the race. His February decision to retire had been a tough one, but he is looking forward to opportunities in the private sector rather than running another race, he said.
The former chairman of the House ethics committee, who had endorsed his former aide and eventual primary runner-up Jeff Crank, said, though, that he was stunned by the dissatisfaction with Doug Lamborn as a candidate. He then added his name to the list of dissatisfied.
In his rebuke of Lamborns campaign, Hefley cited the attempts by Lamborn and third-party groups to portray Crank as a tax hiker and supporter of radical homosexual causes.
Lamborn has defended his campaign as of one of issues and has said he had no interaction with groups that mailed out some of the most negative ads.
Though he will not endorse Lamborn, Hefley said it would be very difficult as well to support Democrat Jay Fawcett because he wants Republicans to keep control of the House. But he added: I dont know what Im going to do at this point about that.
That's the current, retiring Congressman from CO-5 talking, FRiends. Lamborn has a problem.
Is Joel Hefley a RINO or just an idiot? Or both?
Hefley is very conservative and well respected in the district. And he is not an idiot. His remarks reflect the extreme distaste and frustration that Lamborn has generated among both the GOP establishment and the grassroots.
The sleaze and lies from the Lamborn campaign came to light late in the primary, and he actually lost on election day. The absentee ballots put him over the top. I would guess many who voted for him absentee feel snookered by Lamborn.
I would advise CO-5 Republicans to hold their noses and vote for Lamborn for the sake of keeping the House and insist that GOP House leaders send Lamborn on a two year junket to Bolivia if he wins. Then in two years, CO-5 Republicans can vote him out in the primary.
In any case, the winner of CO-5 is a one termer. The good news is that what's going on in CO-5 is not at all an indicator of a general national trend.
Sounds like Hefley has a bad case of sour grapes.
Crank, his candidate, lost the primary.
He should get over it and support the conservative Republican candidate who won the primary.
BTW, here is the list of coservative groups supporting Doug Lamborn:
National Rifle Association (NRA)
Minuteman Civil Defense Corps & Minuteman PAC
House Conservative Fund
National Right to Life
Eagle Forum PAC
Right March
Club for Growth
Republican National Coalition for Life
Gun Owners of America
National Right to Work Committee
National Pro-Life Alliance
Colorado Alliance for a Secure America (CASA)
Conservative Victory Committee
Rocky Mountain Gun Owners
"Distinguished Legislator Award" United Veterans of Colorado
Citizens United for Conservative Victory
"100% rating from Christian Coalition of Colorado"
"100% rating from Colorado Right to Life"
"Friend of Life" Award from Citizens for Responsible Government
A+ rating from the National Rifle Association (NRA)
Highest rated Senator by Colorado Union of Taxpayers (CUT)
Sursum Corda
The high "undecided" percentage in the poll cited I think is a result of a lot of normally "automatic" Republican voters wrestling with their consciences -- can they vote for such a man even if he's right on the issues? Congressman Hefley isn't the only solid Republican who's having trouble supporting Lamborn.
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