Replies

Romanov,

You have been asked several times now to SPECIFICALLY address the claims made in the Riebling article. Instead, you throw a lot of wild claims around, engage in character assassination, and talk as though you were on a first name basis with Colby and Nosenko. According to Riebling, 139 out of Golitsyn's 148 extremely specific predictions materialized by 1993.

So far you have failed to A) demonstrate why said predictions are in reality incorrect, or B) demonstrate how and why the continuing Soviets were able to engineer events in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union to match Golitsyn's predictions almost exactly, or C) demonstrate why Golitsyn's predictions, while correct up to 1993, are no longer valid today, or D) Why no KGB defector has come forward with documentation showing that Golitsyn was a dispatched defector with orders to dupe the West into believing a genuine collapse of Communism was indeed phony.

The list could go on and on. Wild accusations and disinformation are trademarks of the hard-Left. Let's hope that your next post will be comprised of remarks that actually back up your claims. Providing detailed answers to one or all of the above would be a great start--GGG

According to Riebling, 139 out of Golitsyn's 148 extremely specific predictions materialized by 1993.

OK, let's analyze a few hypotheses:

Golitsyn actually had detailed information on what was going to happen up to 32 years in the future (assuming his access to "reliable" secret information from Russia ended in 1961). This would indicate further that one of the following possibilities was in play:
- Golitsyn had actually seen the future because he had engaged in time travel. Unlikely in the extreme.
- Golitsyn really had access to a "Master Plan" of events that was planned out 32 years in advance, and would proceed exactly as laid out, regardless of other events. Given that the Internet (for example) was almost completely unpredicted as a major technological force in 1961, and that its social and economic impacts were absolutely unpredicted, this is also unlikely in the extreme.
- Golitsyn was/is precognitive--i.e., has supernatural powers. I'm not even touching that one except to laugh at it.
Golitsyn, a traitor allegedly under death sentence, somehow maintained close contact with KGB officers still working for the Motherland and received all manner of extremely sensitive information from those contacts (who would thus be committing state treason and also subject to a death sentence). This is absolutely necessary for parts of his story to be believable, because (as one example) he cites a speech allegedly made in 1987 by Gorbachev that describes perestroika and glasnost as frauds intended to deceive the West. Unfortunately, it also completely destroys his own thesis--he cannot argue that (a) all other defectors and agents-in-place after him are false and (b) that agents-in-place are passing him true material. This demonstrates that Golitsyn is being deceptive about SOMETHING--either his status as a true defector, or his access to true information from inside the USSR after his defection.
Golitsyn retconned his predictions to continue selling books to the lunatic fringe. Given that his works were thinly published in the 1980s, and are only "widely" available in later edition reprints that postdate 1993, and given that he has already engaged in some form of deception to support his claims, this is the most likely possibility.

Golitsyn makes extraordinary claims. He does not provide extraordinary proof. In the wake of his known deception, any claims of extraordinary accuracy in his predictions (which Mr. Riebling does not cite) must be considered suspect.

Here's the claptrap Riebling's peddling with my analysis:

R: "In 1984, the KGB defector Anatoli Golytsin predicted a false liberalization in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union whose reforms would be so dazzling that the West would be incapable of retaining a consensus in favor of a strong defense. "

My Analysis" The so-called "False Liberalization" is real liberalization that has seen countries like Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia, etc., not only joining NATO and the EU but welcoming the opportunity to assist the US military, allow US military bases on their territory AND supporting the US military in the War on Terror and in Iraq (to varying degrees). Some of the aforementioned countries have outlawed former ranking Communist members from ANY posts in government. Their economies are being based on Western models, they are openly hostile to Russian movements in the area, and would resist any movements recending the fall of the Warsaw Pact, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the fall of communism. Have you even traveled to any of these countries to see this so-called "false" liberalization? It's real, it's happening, and it's irreversable. These developments place Eastern Europe solidly in our camp. Perhaps you'd like to tell the people in these countries, members of Solidarity for example, that they are/were all a part of some elaborate ruse.

R: "In stead of war the communists implemented another plan.(1) This other agenda was not of a military nature, but a flexible strategic retreat in the face of President Reagan's intention to outspend, face down and ultimately destroy the "Evil Empire." Reagan intended to achieve these goals by means of a massive military build-up, moving towards a defense against strategic ballistic missiles (SDI or Star Wars) and capitalizing on the achieved strategic advantages through diplomacy. Though Reagan is now credited with having made some of the decisive moves towards defeating communism by winning the Cold War, this common perception has to be challenged in the light of an alternative interpretation of events."

My analysis: More Rubbish. The remnants of the Soviet Union, in particular, Ukraine, Belarus, Russia (the Slavic countries) are in a dreadful state. Russia, the "big daddy" has a rapidly declining ethnic Russian population, rampant drug use, rampant corruption, a crumbling infrastructure, and most importantly - completely ill-led, ill-equipped, and ill-manned conscript Army and security forces. While they may be making some good $$$$ on oil and arms sales, their internal situation is pathetic and remains pathetic. The riches being taken in via the sale f energy and arms are only enriching a select elite. It's not being "trickle downed" to the people, and rarely goes toward making Russia stronger and more stable.

Until they get a good handle on the aforementioned problems they pose no threat but to themselves. They have proven powerless to completely defeat the Chechen Wahabist terrorists, prevent multiple home-grown terrorist acts, shut down multiple home-grown terrorist groups, control the mafia, control corrupt generals, feed their troops, keep their own soldiers from killing themselves, etc.

Furthermore, their recent forays into the domestic political systems of neighbors have been disasterous - Putin couldn't even swing votes for Yanukovich in Ukraine and actually handed the election to Yushenko (that Yushenko's ineptitude in the presidency and infighting amongst the so-called reformers led to Yanukovich's rebirth is a topic for another discussion and does not relate to False Prophet Golitsyn).

Golytsin's whole premise is based on b.s. . It's almost like a fantasy dreamed up by people who don't want to believe the Soviet Union collapsed - mainly commies. Commmies would LOVE for Golytsin to be correct, but unfortunately, facts and reality are not on their side. Or perhaps, one of the Golytsin lemmings would like to explain just how the "Soviet Union" is going to rise from the ashes when it's Humpty Dumpty Land?

Now a word about "Perestroika" and "Glasnost." I'm probably the only person on FR who was priviledge enough to meet and interact with the late Alexandr Yakovlev. Dr. Yakovlev is known for his book that was published in the West called, "History of Violence in Soviet Russia" this book details Soviet crimes in Russia. But what most people don't know is Dr. Yakovlev, former Amb. to Canada, and former head of the Propaganda Dept in the CC CPSU, was the author of "Perestroika" and "Glasnost." Both plans were implemented to stem the bleeding from the stagnating and rotten corpse that the Soviet Union was. Reagan was kicking their butts and they knew they needed to stimulate the economy. They also knew the economy wouldn't be stimulated unless people could speak out against their corrupt bosses, and present their own ideas. In short, all these programs did was open the lid on the genie bottle and set in motion the demise of the corrupt system. There was nothing they could do about it without killing thousands of their own people. Their last grasp on corking the bottle was the coup attempt 15 years ago - we all know how that ended...

To deny the legitimacy of the fall of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact is to discredit the men and women who gave their lives to end it, the men and women who risked everthing to resist it (Walesa, Havel, etc), and to spit in the face of the millions of Eastern Europeans, Ukrainians, and Russians who are working to ensure they do not repeat the failed policies and criminal activities the failed Soviet Union produced.

Reagan was absolutely correct in his planning, flawless in the execution of the planning, and won the Cold War. Only leftists deny this. End of Story.