Lopez Obrador leading Calderon in Mexican Vote Recount [Update: Calderon now leading]

www.easybourse.com ^ | 05 July 2006 | Tom Barkley

[La Enchiladita]

No gain latest update.

[ChipShot]

Great minds think alike.

you beat me by a minute.

[Heartofsong83]

Since the magic number came down, it is actually favorable. That seems to be the key now - keep the magic number declining.

[CedarDave]

Can you translate the translation? LOL

[Heartofsong83]

Right now we are on pace for a virtual dead heat (within 0.10% either way).

[BunnySlippers]

From the WSJ article:

After the recount is finished, political parties can challenge the results at Mexico's Federal Electoral Tribunal, which is made up of seven judges. Political analysts say the tribunal has been accused in the past of partisanship, especially in favor of the PRD. During the recent election campaign, the tribunal ordered Mr. Calderón's camp to pull TV ads comparing Mr. López Obrador to Venezuela's populist leader, Hugo Chávez, because the tribunal said it "defamed" the Mexican candidate. Mr. Calderón's camp had argued that it had the right of free speech, and that its charges were accurate.

[Seeing More Clearly Now]

"If Calderon holds a 1% lead with 98.5% of the vote counted, what is the possibility this would reverse to a 2.8% lead for Obragore, assuming the 35.2% of the polling places recounted so far weren't cherry-picked?"

Or some pockets didn't get lined.

[SideoutFred]

I need help...what is the magic number? 12.59% of what?

[BohDaThone]

I was about to post the same, in Spanish, but your translation is great -- this is very good news. all of the states that are the slowest are strong pan. The margins in the PREP count were, roughly:

colima-18%

Durango - 22%

Baja - 24%;

sponora - 25%;

queretero - 25%;

puebla - 6%;

Nuevo Leon - 33%

and Aguas caliente - 25%

[SideoutFred]

92.69% votes counted

Obrador 36.07%

Calderon 35.15%

Difference of 0.92%


Closes another 0.02%

[Heartofsong83]

We need to beat Obrador by 12.59% in the remaining polls to win.

[BunnySlippers]

Apparently this has happened before: quoting:

Mexican election officials, caught in the middle, struggled to explain the initial difference in vote counts. They said that in the 2000 presidential contest, there was a difference of 0.6% between the preliminary count on the night of the election and the full recount three days later.

[La Enchiladita]

It is eerie how this is mirroring our last two elections, the way the country is evenly divided.

[Blue Highway]

SO basically in an hour the finals will be in?

[Blue Highway]

So basically in an hour the finals will be in?

[GOP]

Thanks I was thinking the same thing.

[peggybac]

Sorry if this question was already answered. If there is a second close count, as it obviously is as of now, then what? It's over? Can there be a recount of the recount?

[conservative in nyc]

Can you translate the translation?

As of the time the article was written, the results were fully in from Baja California Sur, Campeche, Coahuila, Hidalgo and Zacatecas, informed the IFE. [These are largely battleground areas, with an advantage to the PAN in Coahuila and the PRD in Hidalgo and Baja California Sur]

-19 other states were 80% or more counted.

-The vote counts lagged most in some very pro-PAN regions of Northern Mexico.

[La Enchiladita]

Fighting over TV ads, that sounds familiar too.

Methinks political "consultants" get around.

[BunnySlippers]

I was thinking the same thing. Conservatives and liberals 50 - 50 again!