Posted on 07/05/2006 2:12:31 PM PDT by chilepepper
MEXICO CITY -(Dow Jones)- Mexico's leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador holds a small lead in the final vote count being conducted by the Federal Electoral Institute, or IFE, based on results from 35.2% of polling stations, The Associated Press reported Wednesday afternoon.
Lopez Obrador, of the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, is ahead with 37.1%, while conservative Felipe Calderon of the ruling National Action Party, or PAN, has 34.3% of the vote, according to IFE.
A quick tally the night of Sunday's vote proved too close for IFE to call a winner, so election officials Wednesday started a full review of tallies compiled by polling stations. The process could take several days to complete.
In a preliminary vote count, Calderon led by a little over 400,000 votes, about 1 percentage point, with 98.5% of the country's more than 130,000 balloting places reporting.
Lopez Obrador's campaign has rejected the preliminary results and called on IFE to open ballot boxes and conduct a vote-by-vote recount, citing irregularities. Leonel Cota, president of the PRD, upped the stakes Wednesday by saying the campaign won't concede the election without a full recount.
While parties can appeal to district election officials to open ballot boxes for a recount, it's unclear if a nationwide recount is allowed under Mexican law.
Interestingly, the Mexican business community cast doubt on Obrador's ability to bring millions into the streets. They say that Obrador is widely seen as molding himself as the "victim" (their words).
It really is maddeningly close. As the total counted went from 84% to the current 92%, the Calderon "need to gain" has stayed beteen 11.7% and 13.0%, meaning he is right on a path to come up to a dead heat! The last few bumps have been optimistic, but only by the tiniest of margins. If the remaining are not radically different than the last few percent (and, of course, they could be, per the PAN confidence spin), we are looking at Florida territory, which would not have been the case with even a 260,000 vote margin.
.98, with 92.3% counted.
Whatever happens, it will likely be in the small decimals.
92.45% votes counted
Obrador 36.09%
Calderon 35.13%
Difference of 0.96%
It's really impossible to predict. The remaining areas to be counted could have went for Calderon 65-35, or 35-65, or 50-50.
It ain't gonna be pretty.
Too much money, too much power, too much to be hidden; it's going to go to blows & the NG just might find themselves more necessary on the border than picking up after a hurricane.
throw libs over the wall
Title says "Rate of decrease of AMLO's advantage over Calderón on the vote's tally"
92.57%, Obragore by 0.94%
It is impossible to predict, it just seems like he has been narrowing the gap too slowly. Wait and see.
Distrital calculation in five states finishes
It reports the IFE that the counts has been delayed particularly in the organizations that would be bastion of the Party Nacional Action
- TO A TO +
Arturo Zárate and Jorge Herrera
The Universal one
City of Mexico
Wednesday 5 of 2006 July
23:27 has finished the calculation of votes in the distritales advice who are in the states of South Baja California, Logwood, Coahuila, Hidalgo and Zacatecas, informed the IFE.
In other 19 organizations, the advance of the count is already of more of 80%.
It has been delayed particularly in the organizations that would be bastion of the BREAD.
In the eight organizations where it advances slowly, National Action would have most of the votes.
In agreement with the official official notice of the institute, the count of numbers is slow in Sights on (28,03%), Durango (59.18) Baja California (58,14%), Sonant (59,75%), Querétaro (73,93%), Puebla (75,57%), Nuevo Leo'n (76,53%) and Aguascalientes (80,42%).
He himself official report explained that the sum of results has been delayed in some organizations by the decision of distritales advice, based on legal causes, to open the packages and to make the calculation ticket by ticket and, by the debate that the representatives of the parties maintain.
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eluniversal.com.mx%2Fnotas%2F360403.html&langpair=es%7Cen&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&prev=%2Flanguage_tools
92.57% votes counted
Obrador 36.08%
Calderon 35.14%
Difference of 0.94%
Closes another 0.02%
0.94% margin
7.46% of votes remain
Magic number - 12.61%
Sung to the tune of "Obla-di, Obla-da"
Obrador, Obrador, the recount goes on, yeah
La la how the recount goes on
Obrador learned from Gore how to steal a race
Calderon still hopes to take command
Obrador wants to be like Hugo Chavez
Calderon wants to shake Bush's hand
Obrador, Obrador, the recount goes on, yeah
Lal la how the recount goes on
Obrador, Obrador, the recount goes on, yeah
La la how the recount goes on
If Obrador wins illegals will flood our land
Even more than they already can
Obrador will follow down Chavez's path
As he drives the business from his land.
Obrador, Obrador, the recount goes on, yeah
La la how the recount goes on!
Obrador, Obrador, the recount goes on, yeah
La la how the recount goes on!
Also from the El Universal site (Google translation, sorry my spanish is not as good as yours.)
http://translate.google.com/translate?sourceid=navclient-menuext&hl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eeluniversal%2Ecom%2Emx%2Fol%5Fminuto%2Ehtml
Basically is says that many strong PAN areas are yet to be tallied. Good news.
Distrital calculation in five states finishes
It reports the IFE that the counts has been delayed particularly in the organizations that would be bastion of the Party Nacional Action
Arturo Zárate and Jorge Herrera
The Universal one
City of Mexico
Wednesday 5 of 2006 July
23:27 has finished the calculation of votes in the distritales advice who are in the states of South Baja California, Logwood, Coahuila, Hidalgo and Zacatecas, informed the IFE.
In other 19 organizations, the advance of the count is already of more of 80%.
It has been delayed particularly in the organizations that would be bastion of the BREAD.
In the eight organizations where it advances slowly, National Action would have most of the votes.
In agreement with the official official notice of the institute, the count of numbers is slow in Sights on (28,03%), Durango (59.18) Baja California (58,14%), Sonant (59,75%), Querétaro (73,93%), Puebla (75,57%), Nuevo Leo'n (76,53%) and Aguascalientes (80,42%).
He himself official report explained that the sum of results has been delayed in some organizations by the decision of distritales advice, based on legal causes, to open the packages and to make the calculation ticket by ticket and, by the debate that the representatives of the parties maintain.
What percentage change was this last one?
0.92% margin
7.31% of votes remain
Magic number - 12.59%
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