Polish Analyst: Russia May Send S-300 Missiles to Iran via Belarus

Missile Threat.com ^ | June 7, 2006 | BBC Worldwide Monitoring :: Analysis

[Flavius]

Russia may export S-300 air/missile defense interceptors to Iran via Belarus, writes Polish analyst Piotr Koscinski in the website for the Rzeczpospolita newspaper. Koscinski cites the Russian publication Vzglyad, which published an article in April 2006 suggesting that Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenka himself would be the go-between for the transaction. The move would allow Russia to categorically deny that it sold these weapons to Iran, and maintain its image within the G-8 and on the world stage. According to Jane’s Intelligence Digest, an Iranian military delegation visited Minsk in January 2006, and negotiations surrounding the transfer of S-300 systems allegedly took place. According to Aleksandr Rakhimchyk, deputy director of the Moscow-based Institute of Military and Political Analysis, if Iran receives Russian-made S-300 systems, the U.S. would not be able to carry out a military operation against the Islamic Republic “without suffering significant losses.”

[Red6]

SA15, combined with S300, and other systems all packaged into a solid IADS, in part hardened facilities would be a hard nut to crack. Nonetheless, we we can do it.

[denydenydeny]

if Iran receives Russian-made S-300 systems, the U.S. would not be able to carry out a military operation against the Islamic Republic “without suffering significant losses.”

Oh yes, the B-2s will be dropping like flies.

Give me a break.

[John Lenin]

After the elections Iran is toast.

[Red6]

I fully believe that Russia (The true decision maker in this issue since they back Belarus and support their pseudo dictator there) is willing and able to deliver S300 missiles to Iran. Often such deals are done through "third party's". Much of the former Soviet hardware we have and analyze down to the last rivet is procured this way. A third party sells it to us. Many of the Stingers that got into Afghanistan did so through Pakistan. It's an old game.

In this case-

You have precedence. Russia in December 2005 already began with its first deliveries of the SA15, an advanced anti aircraft system. In Iraq Russia ensured GPS jammers were delivered last second before war began in 2003. While these systems were completely ineffective in Iraq, it was probably believed by them that they would have a profound effect in our JDAMS effectiveness. Nonetheless you have a precedence.

With Iran the situation is more extreme. Russia is a major trading partner with Iran. Russia wants the US presence in the Middle East and especially the Caucasus to end. They see this region as their sphere of influence. Look at the Russian meddling in the Ukraine or Republic of Georgia. Russia is the nation building the reactor in Iran. At the same time they offer themselves as a mediator in this issue. The latter is done purely to take the heat off of Iran. While the US try's to increase the pressure, the Russian through such political maneuvers attempt to diffuse the pressure. When the EU takes the lead and makes numerous statements about Iranian nonconformity and noncooperation in this issue, the Russians quickly politically beat the drum as loud as they can and try to rob the stage from them. The bottom line here is that Russia is Iran's largest ally. Russia can be expected to block anything in the UN, to de-legitimize any economic, political, or military options against Iran in the publics perception, and to arm Iran in such a way with "key" technology as to make any military option costly.

A system like S300/SA10C would significantly increase the difficulty of dealing with Iran in an aircampaign. This missile is in the class of missile comparable to Patriot.

[VeniVidiVici]

If true, I think the much simpler reason is that the Russians would like to see how well their stuff will do against battle tested weapons and tactics.

Desert Storm gave the Soviets heartburn. The current laboratory in Iraq for realtime desert/urban warfare testing/training must have them reaching for the Prilosec.

[Red6]

Putin/Russia today is trying to reassert itself as a hegemony. They are trying to prevent further erosion of their empire.

http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Mar2006/20060327_4625.html

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04208/351890.stm

You have US troops all over their former republics and they consider this area as "their" real-estate. You have former republic joining NATO or trying to get in:

http://www.nato.int/pfp/lt

Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia........

The Warsaw pact is gone, in Afghanistan where the Soviets after years withdraw with tens of thousands of casualties, we win within weeks. In Chechnya they loose over 5,000 men in each of the two wars there and the first one they loose! Russia as a state wants to reassert themselves.

Would it not be nice if this phenomena Iran were a major thorn in the US side and sucks up resources over decades? Besides that, guess who gets a major portion of the trade? US firms are forbidden to do business there. Who sells everything from trucks to nuclear reactors? Who becomes a major political broker?

The enemy of your enemy is your friend - Russia's guiding policy towards Iran.

[LeoWindhorse]

what would Russia do if we were offering to sell Stingers to the Chechans?

[Southack]

The Soviets first deployed the S300 in 1986. The Russians later sold the S300 system to Cyprus. They offered it to South Korea in 2001.

Now they'll sell it to Iran. It's a bit over-hyped.

[jerryem]

Russia is the one building the recator in Iran.

and if I remember rightly they also built one in Ukraine.

[jerryem]

we could always do it and find out. But if you made it a political issue the Russians would most probably sell the missiles first to the Chechen's just to screw the US

[redgolum]

Unloading old inventory?

[Lessismore]

What would be more interesting is if they give Iran the Kornets anti-tank missile. It was reported that 500 were exported to Syria. It's no RPG, and it is capable of knocking out the Abrams.

[A. Pole]

This is another Lukashenko baiting. The shortest way to Iran is through the Caspian Sea and not through the marshes of Belarus.

Russians have sold the supposedly excellent anti aircraft systems to Iran OPENLY and presumably in hope that it will make a good impression on other potential BUYERS.

Italians do not hide their Ferrari sales! $$$$$$$$$

[Grzegorz 246]

"Oh yes, the B-2s will be dropping like flies."

The whole number of B-2s is something like 20 and they may operate from one base in the world.

[Grzegorz 246]

"The shortest way to Iran is through the Caspian Sea and not through the marshes of Belarus."

This is not about geography...

[Kozak]

So Russia will not have problem with US providing advanced weaponry to Ukraine or Poland or Lithuania etc etc etc.
By the way can we now stop subsidizing Russian scientists in nuclear and biochem area since Russia is doing such land office business in weapons to countries that are stated enemies of US? Russia seems bent on taking up the USSR's old position as an enemy to us. Fine. If so I have no problem with the US paying back Russia and stirring the shit for them. LOTs of ethnic groups might be interested in starting independence movements. At some point in near future when China starts to gobble up the Russian far east I won't be crying any tears.

Too bad. I thought Russians were ready to join the west as part of our civilization. My error.

[A. Pole]

So Russia will not have problem with US providing advanced weaponry to Ukraine or Poland or Lithuania etc etc etc.

I guess that Russia would rather sell her own weapons to these markets. The question how much can they pay?

[Kozak]

Oh no doubt. But why buy Russian crap when you can get the real deal. Maybe we can arrange some sweet sweet deals for all those neighbors of Russia so they can arm to the teeth.