Italy's political landscape shifts ahead of forthcoming election

Financial Times ^ | July 25, 2005 | Tony Barber

[Righty_McRight]

By next May, the latest possible date for Italy's forthcoming national election, the country's political landscape could look very different.

For one thing a new law, strengthening the role of proportional representation in the voting system, may be in place. For another, the three main parties in Italy's ruling centre-right coalition, which has held power since June 2001, may have merged into a single, if loosely knit, movement.

Most intriguingly of all, Silvio Berlusconi, the prime minister who will turn 69 in September, may not even be the centre-right's candidate for premier.

Italy's next election campaign will take place against a backdrop of weak, even non-existent economic growth, a crisis in its export competitiveness, a rising budget deficit and public debt that cramp the options for recovery.

Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, president of Confindustria, Italy's employers' association, said: "We've lost world market share from 1995 onwards. There have been too many years of non-choices. We have 18 political parties in this country and they talk about alliances and tactics, but not about the real problems facing us."

Romano Prodi, leader of the centre-left opposition, said it was frustrating to watch Italy's economic problems pile up, with no prospect of decisive government action until after the poll. "It would have been better to hold the election last spring, because every day that passes is a drama for this country," he said.

Mr Prodi has his own troubles. Managing a diffuse and often squabbling opposition that stretches from centrists to unreconstructed communists, he plans to hold - and hopes to win - US-style primary elections in October to impose his authority on the grouping once and for all.

He said this would ensure he was in a position to govern for a full five-year term. But even some of his allies are worried that the loyalty of Italy's far left to a Prodi government would not last.

It is on the centre-right that the most unpredictable events are unfolding. On Friday, Mr Berlusconi's Forza Italia party, the conservative National Alliance and the centrist Union of Christian Democrats will hold what they bill as the "constituent assembly" of a new movement of the "moderate centre-right".

It will omit the populist Northern League, the government's fourth-biggest party. But the plan is to launch the movement with a manifesto of values, statutes and perhaps even a different name from the "House of Freedoms" under which Mr Berlusconi's coalition campaigned in 2001.

The reborn centre-right will craft its appeal to moderate, undecided voters, who deserted the government in droves in regional elections last April but who may have doubts about voting for a Prodi government too dependent on far-left support. Mr Berlusconi wants to seal the new movement's unity with changes to Italy's electoral system that would give a greater role to proportional representation - as demanded by the UDC.

But one outstanding question is whether Mr Berlusconi will be the man whom Mr Prodi must beat to gain power. Mr Prodi and the centre-left have held a lead in opinion polls over Mr Berlusconi and his government for most of this year, but the gap narrowed in June from 49.5 to 47 per cent. Should Mr Berlusconi gain more ground, he will surely seek another term in office. Should the gap remain or widen, however, the centre-right may search for a new leader.

For centre-right politicians, an important calculation will be how far they believe Mr Prodi's support comes from the electorate's disillusionment with Mr Berlusconi personally.

If they want a more popular leader, the obvious candidate is Pier Ferdinando Casini, a moderate Christian Democrat who is speaker of parliament's lower house.

Opinion polls show Mr Casini, 49, is the best-liked centre-right politician. One poll in June gave him 37 per cent support against 24 per cent for Mr Berlusconi.

Not surprisingly, opposition leaders hope Mr Berlusconi will play into their hands by running again for the premiership. Piero Fassino, leader of the Democrats of the Left, said: "He's convinced he's the best. He has a boundless opinion of himself."

[Mister Baredog]

Piero Fassino, leader of the Democrats of the Left, said: "He's convinced he's the best. He has a boundless opinion of himself."

Any relation to the Clintoon's?

[aquila48]

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