Your guesses make a lot of sense. News reports say that we've been "testing" Iran's airspace for a year now. But did you notice how QUICKLY the Mad Mullah's claimed that an enemy was responsible? I'm wondering if they are going to pull a stunt as you say, and then try to blame the US or Israel? I feel sorry for the average Iranian who is saddled with such scum pretending to be their government, sigh.
One thing that seems to be common about the mutual enemies of Israel and the USA - they will do anything and say anything to put the blame on Israel and the USA for everything that has gone wrong since Adam and Eve. And blowing something up and saying the US and/or Israel did it to try and start trouble is an action I wouldn't put past any of them to do to us.