Posted on 10/30/2004 3:24:48 AM PDT by narses
Battleground Fall Track (Week 7) FINAL ______________________________________________________________________________ STUDY #9936 THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. and LAKE SNELL PERRY N = 250 per day of registered “likely” voters Field Dates: October 25 –28, 2004 Hello, I’m _______________ of The Tarrance Group, a national survey research firm. We’re talking to people long distance today about public leaders and issues facing us all. May I please speak with the youngest male in the household who is registered to vote in this state? A. Are you registered to vote in this state? IF “NO”, ASK: Is there someone else at home who is registered to vote in this state? (IF “YES,” THEN ASK: MAY I SPEAK WITH HIM/HER?) Yes (CONTINUE) No (THANK AND TERMINATE) Now, thinking ahead to the elections that will be held this November -- B. What is the likelihood of your voting in this upcoming election -- are you extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, or not very likely at all to vote? Extremely likely...........................................82% (CONTINUE) Very likely ....................................................17% Somewhat likely ...........................................1% (THANK AND TERMINATE) Not very likely UNSURE (DNR) C. Are you, or is anyone in your household, employed with an advertising agency, newspaper, television or radio station, or political campaign? Yes (THANK AND TERMINATE) No (CONTINUE) * = Less than .5%
(Excerpt) Read more at tarrance.com ...
Read the whole poll!
What are we supposed to be looking at that makes you draw that conclusion?
Look at the strength of the support for Bush. Especially the 'values' question. Ignore the overall lead Bush has (which is great news) and look at WHY he has that lead. You need to go to the pdf document to see the supporting data, but wow! A blowout is about to happen.
You put a spring in my step, my friend.
Its about 5% - that lead me to think Bush's support is somewhere around 8%. This sample is very evenly weighed which makes it credible. This is in line with what the other reputable polls - TIME and Gallup have found.
from your keyboard........
Yep...the democrats are desperate to announce one more surprise before the election. It is rumored they will charge Bush with having sex with his Laura before they were married. Bill Clinton will narrate the ad.
It says this is a national poll, but I found a few of the numbers a little odd if that is the case.
44% responded they considered themselves bornagain/evangelical.
2% responded them considered themselves hispanic/latino
On a positive note, 58% considered themselves somewhat or very conservative.
polls! polls! polls!
Creating jobs is the only one Bush did not win...The rest is terrific...Combine that with favorablity and 5 % looks solid...I like this poll!
This poll is done by a joint effort between a major GOP firm and a major DEM firm. That makes it the most respected poll I know. Plus, they publish their questions and answers for all to see.
:)
It is done by BOTH a GOP firm and a Dem firm. It is the 'gold standard' in polling.
Very well done poll. I have to agree with your assessment. These numbers look extremely good for the Good guys, BUSH WINS BIG
I wish more people would read and understand this poll.
All the more better for those who will be left speechless come tuesday night. Should be classic!
I want to tape the MSM coverage. Just for the laughs.
I want to see Alan Colmes's reaction; that should be priceless.
Thank you for the information on the polling service. I still wonder about those two sets of numbers, but I don't mean to infer it's 'bad' poll. I just take them all with a grain of salt.
Speaking of which, I heard someone on the radio the other day explaining 'margin of error'. Likely most of you knew what that effect was, but there was one fact I didn't know about it I found interesting. The margin of error is only 95% confidence. I didn't know that and found the implications of it interesting. 5 out of 100 polls are just off. So if a poll comes up with 50% Margin of Error 5, 5% of the time the correct answer isn't within 45-55%. Sort of made me realize how worthless any indiviual poll is and trending is really the way to go.
I found a great explaination at http://www.census.gov/acs/www/UseData/change.htm
Hold everything..The poll must be flawed..Joe Lockhart just said Kerry will win handily...:)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.