Posted on 10/30/2004 3:24:48 AM PDT by narses
Battleground Fall Track (Week 7) FINAL ______________________________________________________________________________ STUDY #9936 THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. and LAKE SNELL PERRY N = 250 per day of registered “likely” voters Field Dates: October 25 –28, 2004 Hello, I’m _______________ of The Tarrance Group, a national survey research firm. We’re talking to people long distance today about public leaders and issues facing us all. May I please speak with the youngest male in the household who is registered to vote in this state? A. Are you registered to vote in this state? IF “NO”, ASK: Is there someone else at home who is registered to vote in this state? (IF “YES,” THEN ASK: MAY I SPEAK WITH HIM/HER?) Yes (CONTINUE) No (THANK AND TERMINATE) Now, thinking ahead to the elections that will be held this November -- B. What is the likelihood of your voting in this upcoming election -- are you extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, or not very likely at all to vote? Extremely likely...........................................82% (CONTINUE) Very likely ....................................................17% Somewhat likely ...........................................1% (THANK AND TERMINATE) Not very likely UNSURE (DNR) C. Are you, or is anyone in your household, employed with an advertising agency, newspaper, television or radio station, or political campaign? Yes (THANK AND TERMINATE) No (CONTINUE) * = Less than .5%
(Excerpt) Read more at tarrance.com ...
Read the whole poll!
What are we supposed to be looking at that makes you draw that conclusion?
Look at the strength of the support for Bush. Especially the 'values' question. Ignore the overall lead Bush has (which is great news) and look at WHY he has that lead. You need to go to the pdf document to see the supporting data, but wow! A blowout is about to happen.
You put a spring in my step, my friend.
Its about 5% - that lead me to think Bush's support is somewhere around 8%. This sample is very evenly weighed which makes it credible. This is in line with what the other reputable polls - TIME and Gallup have found.
from your keyboard........
Yep...the democrats are desperate to announce one more surprise before the election. It is rumored they will charge Bush with having sex with his Laura before they were married. Bill Clinton will narrate the ad.
It says this is a national poll, but I found a few of the numbers a little odd if that is the case.
44% responded they considered themselves bornagain/evangelical.
2% responded them considered themselves hispanic/latino
On a positive note, 58% considered themselves somewhat or very conservative.
polls! polls! polls!
Creating jobs is the only one Bush did not win...The rest is terrific...Combine that with favorablity and 5 % looks solid...I like this poll!
This poll is done by a joint effort between a major GOP firm and a major DEM firm. That makes it the most respected poll I know. Plus, they publish their questions and answers for all to see.
:)
It is done by BOTH a GOP firm and a Dem firm. It is the 'gold standard' in polling.
Very well done poll. I have to agree with your assessment. These numbers look extremely good for the Good guys, BUSH WINS BIG
I wish more people would read and understand this poll.
All the more better for those who will be left speechless come tuesday night. Should be classic!
I want to tape the MSM coverage. Just for the laughs.
I want to see Alan Colmes's reaction; that should be priceless.
Thank you for the information on the polling service. I still wonder about those two sets of numbers, but I don't mean to infer it's 'bad' poll. I just take them all with a grain of salt.
Speaking of which, I heard someone on the radio the other day explaining 'margin of error'. Likely most of you knew what that effect was, but there was one fact I didn't know about it I found interesting. The margin of error is only 95% confidence. I didn't know that and found the implications of it interesting. 5 out of 100 polls are just off. So if a poll comes up with 50% Margin of Error 5, 5% of the time the correct answer isn't within 45-55%. Sort of made me realize how worthless any indiviual poll is and trending is really the way to go.
I found a great explaination at http://www.census.gov/acs/www/UseData/change.htm
Hold everything..The poll must be flawed..Joe Lockhart just said Kerry will win handily...:)
You're welcome. The data actually looks solid to me. Look at the breakdown of religions at the end, look at the age breakdown. It is America.
I know, to see all their excuses come pooring out after going to all lengths to give the impression Kerry was well on his to victory. Delusional!
Darn. OK, I quit. Will John Edwards get me my flu shot soon?
One I don't watch the trend on is Zogby...!..Otherwise I do like to see the trend.
Prepare to be healed!...;)
Whew. Will the results be in time to save me?
Edwards promised..
And we know lawyers never lie.
I found this to be interesting:
D3. When thinking about politics and government, do you consider yourself to be...
(READ LIST, ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM, BOTTOM TO TOP)
Very conservative.......................................................18%
Somewhat conservative..............................................40%
MODERATE (DNR) ....................................................3%
Somewhat liberal.........................................................26%
Very liberal....................................................................7%
UNSURE/DK (DNR) ...................................................6%
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1262406/posts
Movables in today's results favor Bush by 52-33 percent, a change from 46-36 percent in Kerry's favor as of Sunday."
This is the ABC poll...and this fact is encouraging.
Kewl. Burnt French Toast Tuesday?
58%! Guess what will happen Tuesday? :)
Heating up the broiler..;)
That's 44% of those who already specified a Christian religious affiliation (i.e., discounts Jews, atheists, etc.). It's more like 35% of the total pool.
This is the one that really galls me. I understand the why, but by default, Kerry gets a pass here!!! Kerry gets 51% and Senators don't even create jobs. Nothing in this guys record suggests he's ever successfully run a kool-aid stand.....well, ok, bad analogy. How about car wash? He just DOES NOT deserve his 'supposed' lead in job creation.
Wait just a minute, please. This poll is heavy with 45-64 year olds and retirees. It's good for that age group, as we are the group second most likely to vote. But I think we need to take it with a grain of salt.
It galls me to no end that people seem to think that the President can create jobs.
All a President can do is set the stage through policy so industries and businesses can expand, which means more jobs available. Only rising productivity can dampen job creaation in a growing economy. Declining profits quicken the pace of job shedding.
The only jobs that a President can directly create are Presidential Appointmentns or creation of a new Government agency, office, cabinet department or a expanded enlistment for the armed forces.
George W. Bush has done much to set the stage for job creation the past two years. I think that the numbers will tell the tale after the first of the year. It doesn't happen overnight.
I see the President is up 5 in this poll, 5 in fox. Yesterday it was 3 at ABC. Of course Zogby has Kerry up today. I was giving Zogby the benefit of the doubt until the 10 point swing in Michigan this week, and Kerry up in Colorado.
So based on the other polls, yesterdays' Pentagon Briefing, the Osama tape, the President traveling to NH and Ohio with the Terminator, I'm thinking the President is up by 5 nationally. As for the battleground states, Rush said yesterday that the President was up in 4, down in two tied in two others. According to Karl Rove. I think what happened yesterday gives momentum to the President. Jim
Dear narses,
I googled, and this poll had Bush 50% and Gore 45% in the closing days of the 2000 election. These folks don't have the most sterling reputation for accuracy. I will note that they did much better in 1996.
sitetest
FOX said this morning they will release new Opinion Dynamics poll at 2 pm today... any guesses?
Suspect, because moderate numbers are usually closer to 25%
The poll was only directed at the youngest male in the houshold who is registered to vote. It is not a representative cross section.
That is a good poll.
This poll is for "the youngest male in the household who is registered to vote." The demographics show the age was spread pretty evenly so it is really just a male poll.
I would expect Bush to be leading 46, 41 in this demographic so it is not spectacular.
This poll is done by a joint effort between a major GOP firm and a major DEM firm. That makes it the most respected poll I know. Plus, they publish their questions and answers for all to see.
Could you even begin to imagine the backlash if they did something like that?
lol
Polls are not predictions, much as we'd like them to be. This poll discloses what was asked, who was asked, the methodology used in asking and the results. That allows people like us to analyze more than just the horse race. You can use aggregators - http://www.electoral-vote.com/ or http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html or http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html but they tend to have their biases too. We will know soon enough. I think this could be a huge blowout but I'll settle for a repeat of 2000 if I must.
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