A chart of Rasmussen's pollings. Notice the trend lines. No doubt this is a result of the Iraqi Guards ambush?!?
Posted on 10/25/2004 8:55:46 AM PDT by MoonMullins
Can this be right?
Here's the new wisdom on FR: Zogby is no longer a biased liberal, but a brilliant scientific pollster, and Rasmussen is a Kerry plant who has riggered his automated calling machines in Kerry's favor...
What events could have accounted for this?
Don't let ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC
give the election to Kerry like they did Gore
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1255413/posts
Assmussen is so predictably unpredictable.
I call him ASSmussen for a reason.
Republicans out on Saturday. This thing seems to happen every weekend.
Well, I sure am glad TIPP and Zogby managed to poll those republicans anyway!
It is obvious that sometime in the last three days, Kerry had a big day in Rasmussen's poll. I suspect that his big day was Saturday, which rolls off tomorrow and/or Wednesday.
If you go back to October 18, one week ago, Bush was at 47.5% and Kerry was at 47.3% in this poll. Over the next four days, Bush improved to 49.1%, while Kerry dropped to 45.9%. Thus, whatever caused the numbers to change happened during the last three days of the week. During these same last three days, the Zogby and TIPP tracking polls were reporting a surge for Bush (with Zogby further reporting mostly good news for Bush on the state by state level as well), while ABC/Washington Post and Rasmussen were reporting good days for Kerry.
Assuming, as is likely, that all this "surging" in both directions is statistical noise, the best approach is to what realclearpolitics does: average them out.
LOL....true.
Good point. But how can we explain the obvious historical sine wave that is Rassmussen?
Snow! Ski resorts opened, all rich repubs went to ski with their family.
Who's better at National Security? Bush 52 Kerry 43
Who's better at Economic Issues? Bush 49 Kerry 46
Bush's Job Approval: 52
Who will you vote for? Kerry 48 Bush 46
"I think Bush is better on the issues, and he's doing a good job, but I'm going to vote for Kerry."
Doesn't make much sense, does it? The horse race numbers for this poll have been goofy for a long time. If Bush's JA is 52, he should be ahead by 5 or so, not behind by 2.
You can't answer that, you can't do an accurate poll period. LV samples are all over the place, that is why the polls are all over the place.
A few weeks ago for example, while we were all cheering that Gallup gave the President an 8 point lead, the dems were crowing that the internals showed that it was actually a 1 point Kerry lead if turnout was the same as 2000 by party ID.
9-11 changed party ID towards GOP. Dems are registering a whole bunch of college kids. Nobody really knows what these two competing facts will do to affect turnout.
This whole race is not going to be about the poll numbers, it will be about turnout. Either Kerry or Bush could go in losing by 3 points, in a national sample, but still easily win by getting their bases out.
About a week to go and they can all just shut the hell up. I'm sick of these polls.
Whatever happened to Portrait of America?
Portrait of America polling, humiliated by their remarkable lack of accuracy in the 2000 election, ran, hid, and changed its name to 'Rasmussen.' :-)
How about a third choice, for those of us who just don't take polls all that seriously?
You're looking at it. Name change to "Rasmussen."
A chart of Rasmussen's pollings. Notice the trend lines. No doubt this is a result of the Iraqi Guards ambush?!?
The polls reflect a weak stock market and rising oil prices.
Soros working his market manipulation, no doubt.
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