Posted on 08/27/2004 6:42:39 AM PDT by PatrickHenry
What are the chances of physicists finding the Higgs boson at CERN or intelligent life on Titan by the end of the decade? Six-to-one for the Higgs and not very likely for life on Titan according to New Scientist magazine and bookmakers Ladbrokes, who have joined forces to offer the public the opportunity to gamble on a range of scientific projects.
"Physics bets are not just the preserve of big names like Stephen Hawking," says Valerie Jamieson of New Scientist, "now everyone can join in". Last month Hawking, who is famous for placing bets on physics with colleagues and co-workers, admitted defeat in a bet about information and black holes.
Warren Lush [great name for a bookie], who deals with special bets at Ladbrokes, says that setting the odds was difficult. "I canvassed expert opinion and then formed the odds the way a bookmaker does," he says. "This means that they are not the true odds of a breakthrough, more the odds that we are willing to lay bets on."
From tomorrow physicists and members of the public outside the US will be able to place bets of up to £25 on five physics projects at the odds shown in brackets, although these will change over time:
• The Cassini-Huygens spacecraft finding intelligent life on Titan (Saturn's largest moon) by 2010 (10,000/1)Lush says that the physicists he asked about cosmic rays were very positive about the chances of a breakthrough, but opinions about finding the Higgs swayed dramatically. However, at 100/1 the odds of building a fusion power station are the same as those offered for finding Elvis alive, which is deemed five times more likely that detecting a gravitational wave by 2010. Meanwhile, the discovery of life on Titan could cost Ladbrokes thousands, but Lush says that he is not losing any sleep.• The Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO) detecting gravitational waves by 2010 (500/1)
• Building a fusion power station by 2010 (100/1)
• The ATLAS experiment at CERN finding the Higgs Boson by 2010 (6/1)
• Understanding the origin of cosmic rays by 2010 (4/1)
Thanks for the ping!
The Higgs will be discovered whether it exists or not. This is because if there is no Higgs, the W bosons become strongly interacting, and form a particle called a technirho, which behaves like a Higgs and plays a very similar role. But even if that's wrong, SOMETHING has to break the electroweak symmetry, and has to do it at an energy below 1 TeV. The behavior of that something is pretty tightly constrained.
This could turn up in a creationist quote salad someday. ;)
Good point, so let's make sure it has the proper (and weightier!) attribution: Chris Quigg first said it.
Works for me.
Huygens would have loved this. He was the first major systemizer on probability theory.
Will I get a free subscription to the British edition of Penthouse if I win?
>The Higgs will be discovered whether it exists or not.Now Physicist will be immortal! (Since this Chris Quigg guy was mentioned in a separate correction post, he won't get the "credit".)This could turn up in a creationist quote salad someday. ;)
Thanks for the post. Big Science is the frontier (and it costs big money).
and maybe..wagering on the big science the breakthrough might be a good addition to TradeSports.
Yes. And money talks. Speaking of which ... is there a website somewhere that lists the currently available prizes? I don't mean things like the Nobel. What I have in mind are specific goal-oriented prizes. I don't imagine that there's a prize being offered for discovering the Higgs particle, but prizes exist. Lindbergh flew the Atlantic for prize money. I recall seeing a TV special several years ago about a prize for a human-powered aircraft. There must be loads of these out there. Know of a listing?
I can do this thing in a swimming pool where I squirt water out of my bare hands like I had a squirt gun in there. It's a hard little stream and I'm real good at it. It might be my most unique skill. There's got to be a prize for stuff like that.
"What I have in mind are specific goal-oriented prizes. I don't imagine that there's a prize being offered for discovering the Higgs particle, but prizes exist. Lindbergh flew the Atlantic for prize money. I recall seeing a TV special several years ago about a prize for a human-powered aircraft. There must be loads of these out there. Know of a listing?"
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some Science Prizes
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Kremer Prizes (several) for human powered flight http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/j_d_mcintyre/kremer.htm
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Mars Prize
To claim the prize the constant must launch to Mars, land on Mars, stay on Mars for at least 14 months, and have a at least a 2 person colony when you leave.
http://www.marsprize.org/
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Space Elevator Prize
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1201400/posts
"Enthusiasts on Friday unveiled an effort to establish an annual competition for space-elevator technologies, taking a page from the playbook for other high-tech contests such as the $10 million Ansari X Prize."
Twenty quatloos on the newcomer!
Oh my God!!! That's not unique. At least one other person, namely me, has exactly that same skill. Everyone I know thinks I am some kind of mutant or something. Good to know there's someone else out there like me.
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