[AmishDude]

The fact is, it would be bizarre for any candidate in a genuine two-person race to win by more than one full % in the popular vote and lose the EV. Now, Nader doesn't make this a genuine two-person race. He's sure to get more than 2%, more likely 4-5% and will effect the race in CA and maybe in WA and ME -- all Dem strongholds.

I did some worst-case analysis before Nader announced:

Edwards, interestingly enough, has a cool interactive map with the electoral votes pre-calculated. The 2000 vote percentages are here. Take the states Gore won by more than 5% over Bush: DC, RI, MA, NY, HI, CT, MD, NJ, DE, IL, CA, VT, WA, MI, ME. These are Safe Dem. -- 200 electoral votes.

Take the states Bush won by more than 5% over Gore: WY, UT, ID, AK, NE, ND, MT, SD, OK, TX, KS, MS, SC, IN, KY, AL, NC, GA, CO, VA, LA, WV, AZ, AR. Add TN because that's safe as long as Gore isn't running. That's 211 electoral votes which are Safe Rep.

The rest: PA, MN, OR, IA, WI, NM, FL, NH, MO, NV, OH are tossup.

Now make the threshold 3.25%. That makes 247 EV's for Bush, 223 for Kerry with 59 tossup. The only thing that can change this is if Kerry puts a Safe Bush state person on his ticket. Even so, that makes NC, for example, a tossup.

I should note that Kerry could take Safe Rep seats and Bush could take Safe Dem seats, but if that happens, nearly all of the tossup states will go that way too.

Lieberman was a big factor in Florida being so close. The FL 2002 governor's race was a portent of things to come. I'd say FL leans Rep in the same way that TN is now Safe Rep.

Bottom line: the Dems NEED Florida. They can't win without it. Gore also won all of the very very close contests except Florida. OR, IA, WI and NM all went with less than .5% difference for Gore, the next on the list is NH, which went Bush by 1.3%.

Bush has a gigantic structural advantage. Maybe Bob Graham could help with Florida, but he's awfully weird...

[ambrose]

Gerald Ford came close to winning the electoral college vote in 1976 with a 2% deficit in the popular vote. I believe that if 4000 votes had changed hands in Ohio, and 300 in Hawaii, Ford would have had an electoral vote victory.

[DallasJ7]

Edwards, interestingly enough, has a cool interactive map with the electoral votes pre-calculated. The 2000 vote percentages are here. Take the states Gore won by more than 5% over Bush: DC, RI, MA, NY, HI, CT, MD, NJ, DE, IL, CA, VT, WA, MI, ME. These are Safe Dem. -- 200 electoral votes.

Heh, notice how he has Florida colored. I must admit I chuckled.

[raloxk]

He's got GA as a swing state. I dont think so.

[txrangerette]

"Graham could help with FL, but
he's awfully weird"

Bill Nelson?

What would that do?

[deport]

He's sure to get more than 2%, more likely 4-5%

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What makes you think Nader will do so much better this time around then he did in 2000? He got about 2.7% nationwide and was on the ballot in 47 states with the Greens.... He'll be lucky as an independent to be on that many states with the effort it takes to get the signatures.... In CA he got 3.8% of the vote. His best state percentage wise was Alaska where he got 10.1%