European Dominance (EU): Fact or Fiction?

Demographers say that to keep a population's numbers stable, the magic number is 2.1. That is the birthrate needed in any society to replace the number of deaths.

CBN.com – BRUSSELS, Belgium -- You can feel the anticipation in the city of Brussels. When the European Union enlarges in May, it will become the world's largest economic superpower: 455 million people in 25 nations, with a combined economy that Europeans enjoy telling Americans will be even larger than that of the United States. The prospect of pushing around the United States has some Eurocrats drooling. The vision is not of a single European super-state, but of a multilateral collection of nations that together will be an economic superpower, and if it chooses, will be able to stand up to the United States.

But alas, the dream of European dominance appears to be stillborn. A looming demographics disaster unparalleled in modern times threatens to send Europe into the dustbin of history.

Europe's population numbers have begun a free fall that could leave the 25-nation EU with only half the population of the United States in 100 years. Pretty amazing considering that 50 years ago, just the 15 members of the present EU had twice the population of the United States (296 to 152 million). But the 25 members of the enlarged EU will be only one-third bigger than the U.S. (450 to 293 million). And, as present birthrates and immigration levels play out, by 2050, the U.S. population could stand as high as 550 million, with the 25-nation EU at 360, and plummeting.

"I have no doubt in my mind that the greatest challenge facing Europe is the demographic problem," says Tim Evans, who heads the Center for the New Europe in Brussels. "The political leadership of the EU have set in a tablet of stone the promise that by 2010, Europe is going to see more economic growth and more prosperity than any other part of the developed world."

That looks increasingly unlikely. No modern society faced with a declining population on the scale facing Europe has seen economic growth.

Why aren't European women having more children? The two reasons given most by Europeans are that women are choosing careers over motherhood, and the high cost of raising children in Europe.

Dr. Cecile Philippe is president of the free market think-tank Institut Molinari. She says, for her and other French women, it is a matter of economics. Europeans can't afford to pay for large families and a bloated welfare state.

"People cannot really choose how many kids they want to have. To build your life, to become rich and wealthy enough to have the possibility to offer your kids what you think is important. This is simply not a possibility anymore. You look at what you can do. In the case of children, how many can you have, and very often you decide not to have the second one or the third one, because simply you do not have the economic means to do that. You're trying to make enough money to take care of yourself and pay your taxes, and maybe then you'll decide how many children you will have. But I don't call that a choice."

Evans says, "Taxes are so high in Europe. And the cost of the welfare state and regulation is so high that people actually don't have the money to raise children. I think if you look at failing state education on this continent, if you look at tax rates of 40, 50, 60 percent, then you begin to understand why parents, if they're planning to have children, …usually plan increasingly to have one or two."

Demographers say that to keep a population's numbers stable, the magic number is 2.1. That is the birthrate needed in any society to replace the number of deaths. In 1960, Europe's was 2.6. Today it is 1.4. The U.S. number is just under 2.1, but is augmented greatly by high immigration rates. In Italy, where the rate is an alarming 1.2, the government has been experimenting with paying families to have more children. It is not working. The Italians are on a course to disappear from the planet completely in the next 100 years or so.

Small towns and villages across Europe are depopulating. Deustche Bank warns that Germany could be a tiny nation of 25 million by 2100.

If you are thinking all this is going to mean are some sweet real estate deals in Rome or Paris in 20 years, think again. The political fallout from Europe's demographic disaster will be felt around the world. It will create a huge drag on the world economy, and historic political and strategic changes. By 2050 there will be almost as many retirees as there are workers in most European nations. That's unsustainable, unless benefits are slashed dramatically, or retirement ages are raised considerably. And this is what happens in Europe today when governments try to do that. They strike. Europe will be an even less reliable ally for Washington, since what nation struggling with bulging retirement rolls is going to want to spend more on defense? And increasing numbers of Arab and Muslim immigrants, with three times the birthrate of native or white Europeans, are likely to turn Europe against Israel and the United States even more.

Still, at the EU-aligned European Policy Centre, Political Director John Palmer says increased immigration is the answer for Europe. He said, "We will have to come to terms with significantly greater migration. I think how we handle that will be a very major challenge for policy makers in Europe, but it is going to be inevitable if we are to sustain the living standards, the growth, the competitiveness of the European economies."

But immigration is also the problem. Backed by public opinion, more and more European governments are trying to limit immigration levels, not increase them. Far-right groups who want to literally ship Africans and Asians back to their home countries are growing in almost every European nation.

With economic growth rates already at only about one percent and unemployment at close to 10 percent, Europe's future does not, in fact, look bright at all.

Evans said, "The cost to European economy and European prosperity in the future, if we don't decrease the welfare state, is going to be a sustained and ongoing demographic crisis. And that's going to be a spectacular catastrophe, because not only will we not be the most prosperous world (sic) of 2010, we'll be nowhere by 2020. We'll be a joke."

There is no historical precedent for the demographic disaster facing Europe, unless one goes back to the fall of Rome. Europe has two choices. It can start having more babies, or let in more immigrants. But in 2004, neither looks likely.

In my own area, we are building five new schools to accommodate the influx of illegals' children

You have a growing school-age population? Ours is declining. Nonetheless, the School District is taxing us to death to replace all of their buildings this decade except the 2 they built last decade.

Because of that, I'm not convinced the school building frenzy around the country has much to do with immigration or the number of children at all. I think it's about the NEA demanding new sparkley environments for their teachers to work in, where each teacher has their own classroom and own office.

A common complaint we heard at the High School (98-02) was from 'teachers with a cart'. They had to complain to every parent at every opportunity that they couldn't provide a quality class because they didn't have their own classroom - they had a cart that they had to take from room to room. Personally, I thought it was great that we were using most of the rooms all day, even if the teachers were only teaching 4 out of 8 periods...

That is true also. But Bush visited us (our city) and told us we needed to get ourselves in the mind frame to educate illegals. So I think there is a double whammy going on in education against parents and tax payers.

And, as present birthrates and immigration levels play out, by 2050, the U.S. population could stand as high as 550 million, with the 25-nation EU at 360, and plummeting.

Overpopulation is the ultimate decider of who is part of the first world and who is relegated to the third.Small,'Ageing' nations have,throughout history,been those who contain financially independent well-off citizens.Better to be Monaco or Switzerland than India or Iran.A drop in population will be the slap of reality France and Germany need to become self-reliant.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.