Posted on 05/26/2017 9:22:02 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
BOZEMAN, Mont. — The ending was shocking, but the result was no surprise.
Despite a bizarre election eve altercation with a reporter that led to a citation for misdemeanor assault, Republican Greg Gianforte kept a red-state House seat in Republican hands in Thursday’s Montana special election.
Yet his closer-than-expected victory against Democrat Rob Quist for the at-large congressional seat proved revealing, exposing GOP weaknesses that could threaten the party’s House majority in 2018 but reminding Democrats of the uphill climb ahead against President Donald Trump.
Here are POLITICO’s five takeaways after the messy two-month brawl and wild final 24 hours:
Trump was an asset, not a drag
Trump won Montana by 21 points in November, and Gianforte — then running for governor — lost by 4. But this time around, Gianforte wrapped himself as close to the president as possible, despite Democrats’ insistence that Trump’s low approval ratings and constant White House turmoil will be a drag on GOP candidates nationwide.
Campaigning with Vice President Mike Pence and Donald Trump Jr., relying on last-second robocalls from the president and Pence, using Trump’s campaign slogans — all of it worked to Gianforte’s advantage.
“Everything I see is that Greg Gianforte is trying to make him completely front and center. He might have muttered his name once or twice when he was running against me and now he wants to ‘drain the swamp’ and says, ‘I want to be with Trump every step of the way,'” said the state’s Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock on Wednesday — nearly seven months after he himself defeated Gianforte.
Quist, meanwhile, barely talked about Trump at all on the trail.
For Gianforte, the biggest applause lines of his Thursday night speech came when he mentioned Trump and used his "drain the swamp" theme. Local Republicans dismissed the idea that the president could drag Gianforte to defeat as preposterous.
Speaking at Gianforte’s election night party in Bozeman before the race was called, former Rep. Denny Rehberg said the national coverage of the race had set up a lose-lose scenario for Trump.
“If Gianforte wins with anything less than 20 percent, it’s [seen as] a loss for Trump, it’s a trend, and, ‘Oh my God, you better be paying attention!’ If Quist wins, it’s going to be, ‘We told you so, Trump’s an idiot.’"
All eyes shift to Georgia
After an intense focus on Montana in the run-up to Thursday’s vote, much of the attention is now likely to shift back to Georgia, where Democrat Jon Ossoff is looking to pick off the seat formerly held by Tom Price, now secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. That special election will be held June 20, when Ossoff faces off with Republican Karen Handel.
It’s already the most expensive House race in history — and now, national groups on both sides of the aisle will face even more pressure to pump resources into the contest.
Democrats need a win to prove momentum is on their side and to ensure that the party’s energized base doesn’t become demoralized. Republicans need a win to calm the nerves of incumbents worried about their chances in the midterm elections and to make the case that Trump isn’t the anchor many political pros believe him to be.
So when do Democrats actually win something?
Powered by seething anti-Trump sentiment, the Democratic Party keeps turning in strong performances in special elections in Republican-friendly districts. But they still haven’t won any of those races.
Quist came closer than expected in the race for the seat now-Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke won by 15 points back in November. But the results fit the pattern set in a Kansas special election earlier this year — where the Democrat came just short in now-CIA Director Mike Pompeo’s old seat — and in suburban Atlanta — where Ossoff was aiming for a win that would enable him to bypass a June runoff where his chances of winning weren’t as strong.
Ossoff could still win the runoff next month, providing an adrenaline shot to Democrats. But if he doesn’t, some party operatives are concerned the money flow — unprecedented amounts of campaign cash were pumped into the Georgia and Montana races — will slow to a trickle.
The Republican freak-out has been delayed
If Gianforte had lost, national Republican leaders were ready to throw him under the bus to make the case that it was the candidate’s own flaws, not adverse current political conditions, that were at fault.
“When we run shitty candidates, it’s going to be hard to win,” said one Republican operative closely involved in the race on Wednesday. “In the three races so far this year, we’re running shitty candidates, it’s just the fact.”
But Gianforte’s victory now allows them to push back forcefully on the idea that Democrats’ over-performance in special elections so far portends a wave election in 2018 that will sweep out the GOP House majority.
“It has zero predictive value of 2018,” said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC affiliated with House Speaker Paul Ryan that’s invested heavily in the special elections so far, on Wednesday. “People just write about the energy that Democrats have, but look at the candidates they’ve put forth in all these races. Quist is a glorified homeless person. He raised $7 million and he’s still going to lose. Ossoff is a glorified child who was born to rich parents and he’ll lose.”
So, for the time being at least, Republicans have delayed the reckoning that many privately assume is coming. At least until Georgia votes.
Press-bashing: the new normal
Much of the vote had already been cast before Election Day in Montana, so it’s impossible to gauge the impact of Gianforte’s run-in with Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs.
But if nothing else, the Republican's win demonstrates that a candidate’s hostility toward the media is no deal-breaker for voters — and it might even be helpful.
Taking a page from Trump’s playbook, Gianforte regularly made fun of East Coast reporters on the campaign trail to gin up his supporters. Indeed, his altercation Wednesday night was widely laughed off by attendees at his Election Day party, as they stared — some angrily — at the media gathered there. In his speech at the end of the night, when Gianforte apologized to the reporter he had assaulted, an attendee yelled that he was forgiven, as others shook their head, expressing the opinion that he shouldn't have to apologize.
Earlier in the evening, the media hatred was even a punch line of supporters’ jokes.
Eyeing a reporter’s press badge skeptically just after polls closed, one attendee explained, “We’re looking for the right press to flip off.” Then she laughed and walked away.
“The Democrats will implode. It will become the party of minorities.”
It will remain the party of the super wealthy who want everyone else footing the bills for their scams.
No one needs a republican to oppose Trump. A Democrat can do that and Republican voters will stay home. IF republicans had any sense they’d push the president’s agenda through. Imho John McCain wants to give Congress to the Democrats.
Your comments are well put. Millions like you are getting it. The Lame Stream Media, like many of America’s institutions, has became infiltrated by the Communists and has become the Great Enemy of the people.
Those willing to fight evil win - whodathunkit?
It is the media that is actually helping to undermine the Democratic candidates.
Their hostile coverage energizes Trump supporters and hard-core Republicans—these are the hard workers that every campaign needs and at this point Republican campaign workers will walk through walls to help their candidate win.
Their “the Democrat may actually do it this time” coverage motivates every luke-warm Republican to drag their rear ends to the polls and vote Republican on these low turnout elections.
If the press totally ignored these races the Democrats would be more likely to pull an upset.
One example of how this works was the primary (2014?) in Virginia where the Republican Minority Leader lost to an unknown. The media totally ignored the race and thought there was nothing to cover. As a result the Republican establishment ignored it as well.
I bet, with almost complete certainty, that the entire Press has been given instructions and a "How to" primer on doing this exact action so they can elicit some type of negative response they can then use to smear the conservative candidate/politician.
OH is Mandel. Solid. He’s leading by 5 already.
If I recall correctly, right after Obama was elected in 2008, the Republicans started winning all of the special one-off elections, and that led to the 2010 mid-term. Funny how the media has forgotten all of that.
Oh, I know. I’m just worried about our beloved Pig Vomit doing a sabotage number on Mandel. Deep State RINOs are scum.
No, actually they didn’t. That was a serious complaint at the time that the National Chairman, Michael Steele of Maryland, wasn’t lifting a damn finger to help our candidates in the specials. They ignored the race to replace Rahm Emanuel (a fellow FReeper, ChicagoLady, was the nominee, and she can attest to the fact they offered her no help, despite the fact the GOP had won the seat as recently as 1994). That followed by 2 disastrous losses in NY, for the Gillibrand seat (which was historically Republican) and for an open Republican seat held by John McHugh (in which a closet Democrat was nominated, and she quit the race and endorsed the Democrat before the election, who won).
It wasn’t until the Virginia statewide races a year later (Nov 2009) that they won anything (sweeping the Governorship, Lt. Gov, and Atty General offices). Other than that, the only 2 contests the GOP won between then and the November 2010 elections were the marquee race in Massachusetts in January 2010 (Scott Brown), and a House special in Hawaii in May 2010 (Charles Djou), which was then promptly lost in November (and Brown’s seat lost in 2012).
It took the independent Tea Party movement for the GOP to recoup its losses that started in 2006, but that was no thanks to incompetent GOP leadership then of Steele, Boehner and McConnell. Had there been no such movement and if the party had had to rely on its normal operations, its unlikely the GOP would’ve made more than desultory gains in 2010, and not enough to win the House or Governorships and legislatures.
Seems to me Mandel has blessing of the party.
BTW, READ THIS to the bottom. See what strikes you: https://t.co/LtBigonQQd
I’d like to know why in the hell that committee (or indeed, ANY Congressional committee) is nearly all-Democrat with its staffers. Something is very, very wrong here. We know full well a Democrat majority would never allow such a makeup with the reverse. It seems pretty clear that Chaffetz is compromised in some way, although I’m not terribly enthused about Gowdy as his replacement, either.
Precisely. And all DC Democrats. I guarantee you, only a tiny % are from home districts. This warrants a MAJOR investigation.
It also means either our “conservative media” is stupid, or has been covering up, that an unknown reporter for a nothing source only in passing points this out.
Swamp Rats.
I could actually buy that “Conservative Media” might very well have missed this (unless they reported it somewhere else and we simply didn’t see it. Countless stories have slipped under the radar over the years). But you’re right, this is a huge story (and if it isn’t, it damn well should be).
Gowdy should indeed fire the entire staff, even the two Republicans (unless they can demonstrate why they deserve to be hired back). If the Dems want to hire Dem staffers for themselves, let them, but otherwise, Gowdy should hire only Republicans (and/or Conservative Independents) and probably from outside of DC. Perhaps recruit straight from colleges (think of “The Untouchables” when Ness & Co. went straight to the Police Academy to find an untainted and unbribed but motivated newbie officer).
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