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The Trump Monster Vote is Coming - 10-24-2016 (VANITY)
Trump Facebook ^ | October 24, 2016 | Self

Posted on 10/24/2016 1:34:39 PM PDT by bobsunshine

Something is going on !!!!

At Todays Rally in Florida, over 23,000 watched live on YouTube and over 53,000 on Trump’s facebook page.

Just checked again and his Facebook Page for this Rally has over 1,400,000 views and it’s only been over for 1 hour. The Naples rally has now over 2,100,000 views on his Facebook Page.

Check out the Great Picture of Trump and Law Enforcement from the airport in Palm Beach

By Contrast, Clinton’s rally (NH) earlier today has only 791,000 views on her Facebook Page.

(Excerpt) Read more at facebook.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Polls
KEYWORDS: facebook; florida; trump
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To: ProudFossil

Polls or odds?


21 posted on 10/24/2016 1:58:05 PM PDT by Frapster
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To: KavMan

Indies are our voters.


22 posted on 10/24/2016 1:59:15 PM PDT by jazminerose (Adorable Deplorable)
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To: ichabod1
According to Caddell, everything turned against him in the last few days. Collapse of support.

Reagan's landslide challenges the pulse-taker profession

For weeks before the presidential election, the gurus of public opinion polling were nearly unanimous in their findings. In survey after survey, they agreed that the coming choice between President Jimmy Carter and Challenger Ronald Reagan was "too close to call." A few points at most, they said, separated the two major contenders.

But when the votes were counted, the former California Governor had defeated Carter by a margin of 51% to 41% in the popular vote” a rout for a U.S. presidential race. In the electoral college, the Reagan victory was a 10-to-l avalanche that left the President holding only six states and the District of Columbia.

After being so right for so long about presidential elections” the pollsters' findings had closely agreed with the voting results for most of the past 30 years” how could the surveys have been so wrong?

At the heart of the controversy is the fact that no published survey detected the Reagan landslide before it actually happened. Three weeks before the election, for example, TIME'S polling firm, Yankelovich, Skelly and White, produced a survey of 1,632 registered voters showing the race almost dead even, as did a private survey by Caddell. Two weeks later, a survey by CBS News and the New York Times showed about the same situation.

Some pollsters at that time, however, were getting results that showed a slight Reagan lead. ABC News-Harris surveys, for example, consistently gave Reagan a lead of a few points until the climactic last week of October.

The single exception to these general findings was the judgment drawn by the Reagan campaign's own elaborate poll ing operation, run by Richard Wirthlin, who claims that Reagan had a consistent five-to seven-point lead throughout the last two weeks of the campaign.

Carter's pollster, Patrick Caddell, on the other hand, still stands by his figures, which reflected a close race right up until the weekend before the election. On the Saturday before the election, four days after he had come off second best in the debate with Reagan, Carter was about even with Reagan, insists Caddell. But by Sunday night, he says, Carter's campaign had collapsed. Caddell's reason: the hostage issue was again in the news and again unsettled, thus reviving the public's frustration with Carter as a whole. Caddell's data shows Carter suddenly dropping five points behind by Sunday night, with another five-point collapse by Monday night.

The public opinion industry has christened Caddell's thesis the "big bang" theory of the campaign: 8 million voters moving to Reagan in 48 hours. To a large extent, most public opinion researchers support this theory, although many do so with major qualifications.

Says TIME'S pollster Daniel Yankelovich: "There is every reason to assume that is what happened. When people are conflicted, they procrastinate. And that's what they did in this election."

Warren Mitofsky, director in charge of the polling effort run by CBS News and shared by the New York Times, has produced a new opinion survey that seems to substantiate the big bang theory. Re-interviewing 2,651 adults who had been questioned before the election, Mitofsky found that some 13% of the voters changed their minds in the last few days of the campaign and that Reagan got the lion's share of the switchers. Says Mitofsky: "Caddell's thesis is consistent with what CBS found."

The Harris organization, which polled throughout the weekend and on Monday, showed Reagan gaining points right up to Election Day. By Monday night, according to Harris Executive Vice President David Neft, an unpublished Harris survey had Reagan six points ahead of Carter. Others picked up the trend too, and Wirthlin showed a widening gap through the weekend until Monday night when he, like Caddell, pegged the margin at about ten points in Reagan's favor. The Gallup survey, which eleven days before the election had Carter ahead by three points, found Reagan moving from 42% to 44% to 47% in its final survey, taken on Nov. 1.

Looking for explanations of what went wrong, Wirthlin believes that the other pollsters erred by estimating that there would be more Democrats in the final body of voters than there turned out to be. He also criticizes the others for asking the key presidential-choice question first instead of last, after asking about issues and impres sions of the candidates. This, he insists, produced a pro-Carter bias.

In mid-October, the discrepancies between Wirthlin's findings and those of the published surveys created a near panic in the Reagan camp. Under pressure from their colleagues, Wirthlin and his assistants spent a frantic three days reviewing their numbers and techniques. They decided they were right, but Caddell, for one, still believes that they had Reagan too far ahead too early.

One puzzling phenomenon that the pollsters have not been able to cope with, or even explain thoroughly, is the so-called closet Reaganite. For whatever reason, people clearly voted for Reagan in this election who had said they would not.

Everett Ladd, director of the University of Connecticut's Social Science Data Center, says flatly: "I am 100% certain that there was no 'closet Reaganism' in this election." Other pollsters tend to agree. But there is some evidence that suggests otherwise. Before the election, only 7% of the blacks surveyed by New York Times-CBS News said they were going to vote for Reagan; Election Day exit polling showed that 14% had ac tually cast their ballots for the Californian. But when re-polled by New York Times-CBS News, only 6% of blacks admitted they had voted for Reagan.

If the pollsters are united on one point, it is that they are not solely to blame for misleading the public; the fault must be shared with the press, they say, which has never fully understood the limitations of surveying.

Says Cuff Zukin, poll director of the Eagleton Institute of Politics: "We are overconsumed with predicting what will happen. Polls predicting who is going to win the election are worthless. First, they can be very inaccurate at the time of the election be cause they are only accurate at the time they are taken.

Negative voting, large numbers of undecideds, low turnout” all these factors made polling this year more difficult. Says Caddell: "This is the first election in which the voters didn't really like either candidate much."

Admits Yankelovich: "Our greatest fail ure was to not point out more clearly that the implications of our data were that great movement could occur."


23 posted on 10/24/2016 2:03:20 PM PDT by Steely Tom (Vote GOP: A Slower Handbasket)
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To: MrChips

https://theta360.com/s/jM4c3wnauuWaIcdGdgE2wVUtE

A crowd estimated to be over 12,000 strong rallied today in Saint Augustine with presidential candidate Donald Trump. Here’s a really neat interactive 360° view of the crowd:


24 posted on 10/24/2016 2:04:18 PM PDT by COUNTrecount
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To: DIRTYSECRET

If they determine that the previous tenant has moved out of the voting jurisdiction, they will probably go ahead and register him/her and be sure that he/she votes for HRC.


25 posted on 10/24/2016 2:04:41 PM PDT by NEMDF
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To: bobsunshine

TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP!


26 posted on 10/24/2016 2:05:34 PM PDT by cherry
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To: Parley Baer

I just voted early for the first time ever, in person, at the Board of Elections, downtown Cleveland, Ohio for TRUMP!

It was over the lunch hour, and I must say, it looked like Mos Eisley in there....

That said, no wait, very professional staff, in and out in under 12 minutes!


27 posted on 10/24/2016 2:07:55 PM PDT by Bshaw (A nefarious deceit is upon us all!)
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To: LS

I have my eye on Michigan.


28 posted on 10/24/2016 2:13:50 PM PDT by MrChips (Ad sapientiam pertinet aeternarum rerum cognitio intellectualis - St. Augustine)
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To: ProudFossil

FOX is fully of lefty liars.


29 posted on 10/24/2016 2:14:15 PM PDT by ptsal
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To: COUNTrecount

OMG!!!! Thanks!!!


30 posted on 10/24/2016 2:17:23 PM PDT by MrChips (Ad sapientiam pertinet aeternarum rerum cognitio intellectualis - St. Augustine)
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To: faithhopecharity

Even in states he’s not expected to win, we need EVERY vote.

Trump needs to win the nationwide popular vote, as well as the electoral vote, otherwise he will be labeled an illegitimate President.


31 posted on 10/24/2016 2:23:43 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Big government is attractive to those who think that THEY will be in control of it.)
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To: PapaBear3625

we’ve had a (constitutionally and otherwise) illegitmate “president” for 8 years and that’s never stopped him


32 posted on 10/24/2016 2:26:05 PM PDT by faithhopecharity ("Politicians are not born. They're excreted." Marcus Tullius Cicero.)
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To: PapaBear3625

I don’t care what they call President TRUMP

I will be satisfied if TRUMP just win 270 Electoral Votes & keeps the Senate!!!!


33 posted on 10/24/2016 2:30:50 PM PDT by KavMan
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To: personalaccts

Is that sarcasm or are they actually trying to claim that?


34 posted on 10/24/2016 2:32:44 PM PDT by sam_whiskey (Peace through Strength)
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To: bobsunshine; All

Just voted early in Florida, Leon County, very democratic...first day of early voting here in parts of Florida...my ballot was about the 1320th one cast today...in and out in 5 minutes...

Have to admit, I was so excited to vote for Trump\Pence my hands were shaking :) !!

TG


35 posted on 10/24/2016 2:34:39 PM PDT by Tobias Grimsley
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To: bobsunshine

Voted today in NM, for Trump. Pray for a victory.


36 posted on 10/24/2016 2:37:10 PM PDT by Lee Enfield (I identify as rich, cut me a check.)
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To: Bshaw
I just voted early for the first time ever, in person, at the Board of Elections, downtown Cleveland, Ohio for TRUMP!

Does that free you up election day to watch over some suspect district and document busloads or intimidation?

37 posted on 10/24/2016 2:42:47 PM PDT by JimRed (Is it 1776 yet? TERM LIMITS, now and forever! Build the Wall, NOW!)
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To: All
Here is a video of one of Mr. Trump's speech with video overlays of what we are fighting for; Remember (from Galaxy Quest) - "Never Give Up, Never Surrender" - Enjoy: Trump The Establishment
38 posted on 10/24/2016 2:51:50 PM PDT by bobsunshine
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To: JimRed

I am hoping people all vote early because if the monster vote waits until the 8th the polls may be so overwhelmed they will close before everyone gets to vote!
VOTE EARLY!!


39 posted on 10/24/2016 3:03:01 PM PDT by weston (SO HERE'S THE STORY: As far as I'm concerned, it's Christ or nothing!)
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To: LS

In the primaries many democrats crossed over to vote for Kasich on order of their bosses to deny Trump the primary win

Will they make up their own minds this time? anecdotal evidence is many blue collars will vote for Trump over the crooked shrill emasculating hillary


40 posted on 10/24/2016 3:30:18 PM PDT by silverleaf (Age takes a toll: Please have exact change)
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