So here are the numbers I get: At 85% turnout for each, Trump even without a single D crossover or advantage with Is, Trump would get 61.5m votes. Cankles about 58m.
If in fact there is a turnout differential of 2%, you’re looking at Trump over 62m and Cankles at 57m or less.
If Trump gets more than 10% Is, add another 700,000 to Trump and remove another 700,000 from Cankles.
All well and good...but the popular vote doesn’t mean much. We have an Electoral College. And THAT is everything.
Don’t forget Hillary is waiting millions of votes in California and probably New York, as well.
Nice analysis. I predicted a 6% spread, all things considered. The amount of people that will vote, who did not vote in the primaries, might hit above the 2% mark that you noted. FWIW.
I know I will vote as many times as I can, which for me is only once, unfortunately.