Nice analysis. I predicted a 6% spread, all things considered. The amount of people that will vote, who did not vote in the primaries, might hit above the 2% mark that you noted. FWIW.
Yes, I’m being conservative, although Rush just said Fred Barnes said Trump only getting 80% GOP (Romney got 93% and lost, but again, black vote, youth vote). I don’t believe that. I think Trump at least gets 85% R, as you say, gets some previously “never voted” and gets 10% Is.