Posted on 09/20/2016 6:37:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Team Hillary has 49 days until Election Day to clinch what should be an easy victory. After Donald Trump’s August swoon, Hillary Clinton should have been able to coast to November 8th. Instead she has apparently stumbled back into a virtual tie, and Electoral College maps now make the race look like a dead heat with the first presidential debate on the near horizon. With allies and donors getting restive over her inability to close the deal, the Clinton campaign sent out a memo with one main message — don’t panic. Greg Sargent got a look at the Robby Mook missive:
Hillary Clinton has many paths to 270 electoral votes, while Donald Trump has very few. Hillary is nearly certain to win 16 “blue” states, including Washington D.C., which will garner her 191 electoral votes. If we add the five states that FiveThirtyEight.com gives Hillary a 70% or greater chance of winning (Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin), Hillary only needs ten more electoral votes. …
Even if he wins Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio he’s still 17 electoral votes short of 270. To win, he’ll need to find those electoral votes in Colorado (which FiveThirtyEight gives Hillary a 65% chance of winning), plus at least two of the three small battleground states: Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire. All of these scenarios assume that Trump wins traditionally “red” states, such as Arizona, Georgia, and Utah, even though he is currently underperforming in these contests.
One could make the same argument about Hillary Clinton, too. She may be leading in the states where Mook argues she’s a near-lock, but she’s also underperforming. A candidate as well known as Hillary, and whose policies and party affiliation make her a near-incumbent in this cycle, should be scoring 50% or more in these battlegrounds — especially against an amateur like Trump. And yet, seven weeks before the general election, she’s sinking back into a virtual tie while Trump manages to improve his standing.
Sargent asks a few uncomfortable questions that the memo doesn’t answer, such as: Why is the race tightening? Are Virginia and Colorado secure? And how seriously does the Clinton campaign take her problems with Latinos and millennials? The issue with millennials was easily predicted, but not the lack of enthusiasm among Hispanic voters. The news isn’t all bad there — Trump’s only doing as well as Romney, as Jazz pointed out, which doesn’t bode well for the GOP in the short or long run — but if turnout drops off more than marginally, Hillary will be in serious trouble on Election Day.
As for why the race is tightening, there’s really only one answer: Hillary Clinton. This began before her collapse in New York City a little over a week ago, but that and her fumble on the “basket of deplorables” attack line didn’t help. Notice that the campaign has cooled off on that sound bite of late? That’s probably no accident. But the real reason for her setbacks is that no one trusts Hillary Clinton, and she keeps providing more and more reasons to earn that distrust. Lying about her health only added to that public perception of dishonesty, and may do more damage than pay-for-play evidence emerging from the Clinton Foundation and State Department e-mails.
At the same time that Mook insists the Electoral College map looks secure for Hillary, NPR argues that it suddenly doesn’t:
But now, less than a week before the crucial first debate of this presidential race — and as a terrorism bombing investigation continues in New York and New Jersey — a viable route has emerged for the Republican nominee, according to the latest NPR Battleground Map.
About a dozen battleground states have gotten closer with some key ones showing Trump leading for the first time. Hillary Clinton retains the advantage, but it’s a far more precarious lead for the Democrat than at any time in this presidential race.
Trump’s movement comes as many pollsters have switched to “likely voter” models, which try to predict the electorate based on factors like enthusiasm and past voting records. That alone may be responsible for most of the tightening, but it also follows a less-disastrous month of campaigning for Trump than the stretch immediately following the party conventions, which saw his fight with the Khan family, whose son, a Muslim American, was an Army captain killed in Iraq. Trump also began running his first major round of campaign ads in key states in recent weeks.
That may well point to a simple explanation. Trump has picked up his game, while Hillary has not. Whether Trump can keep improving is a big question — but Democrats have to worry more about whether Hillary can stop the bleeding at this point.
And the dirt on Trump will be thick and heavy in the coming weeks. If she thinks this will work to her benefit, I don’t think so.
If Cankles wants to get dirty, Trump will respond twice as hard.
I want nothing more than to have Hillary give a concession speech after this election. I would say late on November 8, but, unless Trump has completely trounced her by the time 8PM Pacific Time, I expect her to hold out for as long as possible.
Yes, he will!!!
I have never heard of a Presidential candidate who doesn’t campaign!
Both pilots are dead..... but don’t panic.
I had the lasagna.
In the old days it was considered vulgar and gauche to personally campaign, so you sat on your porch and greeted well-wishers. Perhaps Hillary is reviving that custom?
Tough to flip PA....4 mil Dems to 3 mil repubs
I don’t see how her poll numbers are holding up at all.
The ole rented mule trick.
If Hillary gets wiped out early on the East coast I would
think that perhaps California might even be up for grabs for Trump. That's a stretch, but it could happen. Does anybody here think that California has
had enough of illegals yet?
They are busy registering voters. I’ve seen them all over, at supermarkets, at a WllMart, one came to my door. I don’t know that the GOP has a big registration drive going on.
but how many of those Dems are blue collar/union people, or coal miners?
The better translation is send a financial contribution to the Trump campaign. We have been giving $20 a paycheck. All we can afford but feel it is important.
It is easy and even small amounts help.
Exactly. And when she does a public campaign event, it’s a Potemkin Village. It’s photoshopped to make it look a packed house.
I am a life long Pennsylvanian. He’s going to beat her senseless. Or more senseless than she already is.
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