It's down to New Hampshire if this trend continues

538

[Sybeck1]

I've just started looking at 538 for a couple of weeks now. This is the highest chance of winning Trump has gone since I have been looking at it. He's up 2% since this morning. A lot can change but little New Hampshire is the highest non Trump state but it is up also. Looking at the snake graph at the bottom little NH with the other states and we would be saying President Trump with right over 270 electoral votes. The establishment has got to go scorched earth now.

[mware]

I think Trump should be able to take 3 or the 4 vote from Maine.

Obama just screwed them over bigtime.

[556x45]

Wouldnt count on NH as its infested with Massholes and other such refugees from occupied states. They just cant seem to figure out why the stench and destruction follows them. NH used to be a great place to live but its slowly matching the cesspool its surrounded by. Gee, good thing those free staters came...they sure set things right.

[Voluntaryist]

Yes, but isn’t there a chance of one of Nebraska’s EV going to dems? I’m not sure about polling in that district, but I don’t like to ignore that, because it’d make your outcome 269/269.

[GCC Catholic]

Nate’s chart gives it a VERY small chance to go Dem. I’d think many other states are likely to flip before it does.

[BitWielder1]

Don't count on New Hampshire, we're infested by New Yorkers and Massholes.

[Walvoord]

By my math that map, even with NH, results in a 269 - 269 electoral college tie. House of Reps. decide.

[ExTexasRedhead]

Really? Where does anyone think the Zombie Hillary is winning? It’s all bogus.

[dp0622]

Bro I live here and that’s a VERY bad wager.

It aint the NY of Reagan’s day.

Not happening. Nor will PA in the end.

Who care? If we win CO OR NH OR VA and we win, those are GREAT odds!!

[dp0622]

good. that will put him over the finish line, among at least 3 other states.

forget nj, pa and ny. Hopefully she will have to spend money and time but they are UTTERLY unreliable.

Anyone know what’s up with that #### who ran just to win utah? Any effect.

[sphinx]

Not sure about CA yet.. they are way too nuts

It's not the nuts. They've always been there. California has become way too Mexican.

[Sybeck1]

Are you counting that Maine district in play?

[mbrfl]

It seems as if the Trump surge of the last two weeks is stablizing. Not much motion in the last few days, but his gains appear to be the new normal. There will likely be additional surges in the next 50 days. Certainly a strong Trump debate and perhaps more importantly, a weak or disasterous performance by Hillary will set the polls in motion again.

[CtBigPat]

I live in New Hampshire. It’s wall to wall Trump signs up here! Clinton signs are practically nonexistent.

[MMaschin]

Recent poll showed Trump up in Colorado - that would give it to him. Just today, a poll in Maine showed him tied. that would be enough.

This election will either be 1) a slim win for Hillary, or 2) a large win for Trump.

Hillary's votes are locked in, there are not many people sitting around, trying to figure out who Hillary is, and can they vote for her - but there are quite a few who don't know about Trump.

This election will hinge on the debates. All that the majority of undecideds know about Trump, at least as a politician, is predicated on what the media has told them. If Trump does as I expect, and shows himself as likeable, intelligent, caring person, he has huge upside. And he will pull in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia - they are all close right now, but he has the chance to take them all if he comes thru in the debates.


This election is Trumps to lose, and he will lose if he comes out of the debates looking, mean, unknowledgeable, or non-presidential. But if he doesn't, he will be the next President, and there will be no amount of fraud that will be able to change that.

[Louis Foxwell]

Your pubbie governor is making great strides in changing the political landscape of MD. I trust he will come out for Trump.

[major-pelham]

I don’t care about Nate Silver and tortured statistics. We’re winning NH - anecdotal but true - Trumps signs and bumper stickers appearing on my street. Ayotte killing Hassan in the Senatorial. My Trumpster Congressman got killed in the local media and ran against a squish and still won. NH is Bushie GOP not red meat. We won’t win all of them. We’re going to win NH.

[mvonfr]

This is today's map from the also pro-Hillary electoral-vote.com. The score is 274:258 with 6 undecided (Nevada). Now, I suspect that Trump has Nevada. And I also suspect that NC should be counted as Trump's.

So.. NH will be fine, but absolutely unneeded. In fact, this map is the winning path with NC and NV added.

[MMaschin]

VA isn’t winnable?


Yes it is, it will depend on Trump performance in the debate.

The most recent poll was inside the margin of error.

I was surprised when I saw the Emerson poll that showed Hillary up only 1. I looked at the tables, and she was only +9 in Northern VA. I read a comment from someone who lives in the area, and there has been a LOT of immigration into the area, and that has upset a lot of people.

The main thing Trump needs to do in the debates, is come off as likeable (not arrogant, or mean), knowledgeable, and Presidential. If he does that, his favorable numbers will go up 10-15 points, and he will win not only VA, he will win NH,CO,MI,WI, and PA.

[fortheDeclaration]

Still clinging to hope, just like the anti-Brexit establishment did.

[Fast Ed97]

Sad that New Hampshire is even in play. Used to be one of the most conservative states—Senator Bob Smith and Pat Buchanan did very well there.