Posted on 07/06/2016 6:33:06 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
After the UK voted to leave the European Union a week ago, there was a lot of talk about how the polls blew the result, predicting a "Remain" win when in fact "Leave" managed a close but clear victory. The rejoinder to this criticism - I think a valid one - was that the balance of polls showed "Remain" in the lead but only barely. A better interpretation of the data was that the race was too close to call.
Beyond the statistical margin of error, there were aspects of the contest that made it difficult for pollsters to accurately model. If we combined statistical with what we might call methodological margin of error, the margin of the "Remain" lead was well within this combined margin of error.
But now TPM Reader DF sends me an email with a link to a study which puts the whole picture in a very different light - and even suggests, by implication, that Donald Trump might be doing better than we think.
Three public opinion experts, Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, and Paul Whiteley, ran 121 Brexit polls through a statistical model intended to correct for methodological 'artefacts' and the 'house effects' of each pollster polling the race. After they ran the numbers through their model they came up with adjusted data that showed "Leave" was actually always ahead - sometimes by a bit and sometimes by a lot, but always ahead....
(Excerpt) Read more at talkingpointsmemo.com ...
Trump people tell pollsters to “go to hell”.
Well yes. The internals on polls are a joke. Learned to know what you are looking at TPM.
When free speech is subject to terrorism people just won’t speak the truth but they will act.
I would vote for a dead skunk before I would vote for Hillary. But when the pollsters call I lie lie lie to them that she’s my favorite, ever.
I don’t answer phone polls, don’t do on-line polls. To all of them it is NOYB.
Ignore all polls
Get out the vote
Polls from corrupt media are designed to suppress voter turnout... pure propaganda
I answered a poll tonight that asked me what I think of the Democrat candidate for President...I told them the candidate belonged in jail.
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