Posted on 04/10/2016 5:02:43 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Those in the know are now spreading the word. Read it here first!
Earlier I had a different Note, and different stuff written. Now I can tell you that Ted Cruz is the winner, I can prove it for most people. Yes read it again, Ted Cruz has won the nomination.
Trump is letting people go as we all know. Florida, Ohio, and other battleground States have seen most positions slashed. Staff in his Headquarters have been let go as well even when they were performing critical roles. Trump did not even have a New York Team until last week. He is growing teams in some States, but those teams will be laid off later just as he has done to any State he considers “safe”. Trump is not spending the money needed to secure a campaign team, he thinks force of personality will win. That was his undoing.
The Nation will wake up after the New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware election to the very same title as I have posted. “Ted Cruz wins the Nomination”.
So how did Ted Cruz do it? It starts in 2014. Ted Cruz decided he was going to run for President. So he hires Cambridge Analytica, some top people from the Romney Campaign, from the Santorum Campaign, the Ron Paul Campaign, amongst others. Not the top paid people. Often those people are there for show only, no Ted Cruz hired the real talent. Ramping up for 2016 Ted made the strategic goal to win his “lane”, to prepare for a Contested Convention, to have the strongest volunteer base, and finally… to win the data war like no one has ever won the data war before.
So this leads up to New York and current wins that have been talked about, mentioned, or alluded to.
New York
Donald Trump ran from efforts to secure California and Colorado for a reason. At first he utterly was bored with Ted Cruz stumping in New York. After all the media, his campaign, the polls… aka the yes men, the yes men, and the Pundits who never seem to score Ted Cruz properly, all were saying Trump was going to win in New York. So why even bother? Until his campaign team studied what areas Ted Cruz was doing, checked the election laws for New York, and hit the panic button (I wonder who is getting fired over this failure). Oh and Trump’s campaign did not see voters had to Register in October of last year. His own children missed the deadline to switch from Democrat to Republican.
Trump has been polling above 50%, so the man who really does not know politics assumed he would clean up in New York. His problem is that you need to win 50% in each of the 27 Congressional Districts to get all of the delegates. This is where his headache is beginning. Ted Cruz is campaigning in districts no Republican Presidential candidate has ever campaigned in. This includes the Bronx. With very few Republicans there no normal candidate would take the time. But Ted Cruz can campaign there, win the conservatives, and get potentially over 50%.
Did your eyes get wide? Yes, Ted Cruz can win some of these small Republican population CD’s. Now it is unlikely that Ted really takes a lot of them, with Kasich as a spoiler. But it is potentially possible Trump can end up 3rd in some CD’s. Not so many as I would wish would happen, but enough to make the Pundits, the Yes Men, and the Yes Men (doh! I mean pollsters, media, and Trump team) to all say that Trump got shellacked in his home turf. Trump may win the popular vote, but his delegate total is not going to meet his expectations and those silly Yes Men will all be saying that Ted Cruz is going to make it a Contested Convention.
Pennsylvania
Polling currently shows Trump up at 39%, but that’s 39%… You read that right. Ted Cruz at 30% and Kasich at 24%. Kasich lost 5% in Wyoming and it is reasonable to think he will lose as much or more in Penn State. Which means Ted Cruz, who often surges in the undecides and those who leave other candidates, can quite easily pass Trump here..
Connecticut and Montana
Libertarian, strongly, especially in Republican ranks. Expect these to be #NeverTrump and pro-Cruz.
Delaware and Rhode Island
One closed, one Open. First is 16 delegates, the second 19. No polls, no details, but they are not in the South, which is an important note. Still I concede these States because really… It does not matter in the final math. A win here for Cruz makes it that much more painful for Trump as he gets pummeled to the Convention.
Indiana
Indiana is already a losing proposition for Trump (link) (link)
Washington
Caucus State, closed, and Ted Cruz has almost entirely secured the Delegates there with no issues. Trump did an unforced error when he sent a Delegate list to Washington DC instead of Washington State. His supporters had no list when the Counties were doing their votes. The Caucus is heavily predicted for Cruz, I call 40 of 44 for Cruz and all delegates in the delegate selection.
Oregon
Hello to the Trump team in Oregon, we saw you recently organized. Congratulations on getting paid positions. However you are about 4 months too late. We secured so much of Oregon that it will be a Ted Cruz based slate that makes the Delegates. Further your support is far weaker than our support in Oregon. We have tons of evidence of that. 25 for election, 3 from the State, 28 Delegates total. Of the 25 you will win at best 3. Deal with it. If you beg enough to Trump – maybe he will try, but I sincerely doubt it. Be prepared to be fired afterwards by him for not carrying the State or improving his numbers here. Signed the Ted Cruz Oregon Team Narlina Duke, Jeff Reynolds, Michael Harrington, Mark Callahan, Nathan Dahlin, and many more. Let me know if you ever get anyone to actually endorse you openly. I want you to know we have many candidates and a number of State Representatives and Senators on board.
For those not in Oregon, Oregon is firmly in the Ted Cruz camp. We worked hard in making this happen and the pay off is that when Trump finally showed up he has 3rd rate stringers, a few trolls, a few spies, and we have their ranks fully identified. The two major candidates who support Trump will not publicly say so, that is how bad it is here in Oregon for Trump.
Other States
Not knocking any of them, I just have to get to the other side in a concise manner. Nebraska is Ted Cruz, West Virginia is by Congressional District, South Dakota should be Ted Cruz by significant numbers… The tide is switching hard against Trump and he cannot get enough secured for a first ticket win. It is in probability terms a number equal to being stuck by lightening three times in a row. Ted Cruz has got amazing odds of making it a contested convention, and more so, his odds of winning first ticket are better than Trump’s.
Trump will be short by about 140 delegates according to my current math. This includes some insider knowledge, but there you go. That is the MINIMUM shortage by the way. It could exceed 200 delegates even :)
Delegate Fights
Since this is going to be a Contested Convention without to much doubt, we have to look at how the various States are doing. In this regards there is not much room for Trump. The panic button is pushed and he is already deeply behind. More so the remainder of the States lean towards Ted Cruz. Trump spent his load, and the New York run is the end of the line for the Trump Train. Many of the States having had voted are going to lean to Ted Cruz for delegates even if they have not selected their delegates yet. Here is a list of mostly voted States (or voting).
GOP Leader Delegates (link)
Washington (link) (link)
Wisconsin: Delegates here are actually from the candidates Slate by law. Ted Cruz all but 6 :)
Iowa (link)
Tennessee (link)
Louisiana (link)
Colorado (link) (link)
Ohio: Kasich got his Republican friends to make this so each candidate submitted a Slate and the winner gets their Slate approved. Access denied for Trump, but these will be the most rabid of Kasich supporters.
South Carolina (link)
Wyoming: Convention will nominate 14 more delegates on April 16th. Cruz won with 66% in this Caucus State. Delegate list not yet compiled of course until the Convention.
North Dakota (link)
Georgia (link) In Georgia you had to be a PCP elected a year plus ago. Trump was not even considering it. Ted Cruz was :)
Virginia (link)
Utah: 23rd April we get answers how this one goes. Spoiler: Caucus State, Cruz got 70% of the vote.
Missouri: Ted Cruz is inching out Trump in places like St. Louis and St. Charles for delegates. Votes are happening now. We get the full Slate when we win by at least 1 vote. So yeah, kicking ass and taking names in Missouri (only links are Trump ones complaining, wont post those).
Arizona no delegates selected yet, but the Ted Cruz Slate is expected to win (link)
Oregon: No link, just my word, a Ted Cruz slate is the only Slate that can push through.
Michigan: The only loss for the Ted Cruz campaign to date (link) other than Ohio.
Texas: Guess!
Conclusion
Many States have yet to make their delegations. However in most cases the State Party is leaning Ted Cruz by significant numbers. Additionally the Tea Party, born in 2010, has been taking States by storm in the last few years in the “hidden war” for the Republican Party. I listed only 18 States. Of those 18 we saw one for Kasich, and one split for Trump and Kasich. Some of this is insider knowledge, I am in a few news groups and get details people won’t see and I cannot share. However I will say this, at this juncture I am projecting that Ted Cruz has essentially secured the hearts of 1300+ delegates. This is the battle we have won. We have enough States that we could potentially unseat Reince Priebus with room to spare. It is that significant what is going on inside the Republican Party.
This is not just about Ted Cruz, we are a movement of our own inside the Party.
Now we wont be exactly kicking the Establishment out over-night. Most of the sitting people will remain there, like Mitch McConnell. We don’t have enough top candidates to challenge at the Federal level, but we are in fact winning a larger share of the State level fights by looks of it. So this is where we make the offer… Instead of frequently negotiating with Democrats, negotiate with us. We are the future of the Party. Work with us and there will be less desire to remove you, less need to do so. You can probably stay until you have decided to leave if you reasonably work with us to make the changes the voters of the Republican Party so deeply want that they almost risked electing Trump as a spoiler.
I think they already know we are here however, the endorsements Trump has gotten are from mostly the dead-enders (Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, and Ben Carson for example) and lower level ignorant politicians. The main party can see the writing on the wall and probably are already working to make preparations to work with Ted Cruz.
The Fox News team, Lars Larson, and other right side media persons who supported Trump are doing so because either they were told to do so by their parent company and complied, because they got spammed by fake accounts making them think the support was overwhelmingly there for Trump, or because they are factually stationed in New York and have adapted those values we decry.
Only a Trump-ite could say that with such colorful language. You become like those you adhere to.
Cruz was neutral during the primary and runoff election. It was only AFTER MCDaniel’s loss that Cruz blasted the party leadership. As NRSC VP said nothing DURING the primary.
You put Cruz in there, and you all are going down in November. Then I suppose you can laugh all you want.
Obviously this is from a Cruz insider. He mentions the Tea Party. They seem to be pro-Cruz. It seems to me that they were challenging the Republican party’s Open Tent, moderate/liberals several years before GOPe became a meme. The Tea Party disserves our respect.
I like both Cruz and Trump, and will support either. I’m think it wrong that there is bad blood between their supporters. In each case, I think their legions of supporters are among the best of Americans.
To me, Cruz has established better credentials as an all-around conservative. Trump has some important, err, Trumps. He loves his country and wants to do well by it. He is anti-Islam. He is anti illegal immigration. This may not distinguish him so much from Cruz, but it puts him WAY ahead of Obama, Hillary, Sanders, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich.
For me a Cruz-Trump or Trump-Cruz ticket seems ideal.
Blind devotion to a sainted leader will do that. And just like their leader, they will blame us for their intellectual shortcomings. Remember “Donald does well with voters who have relatively low information”?
It'll be a rout worse than RINO ROMNEY! Hope you're happy!
I addressed this up thread in post 18. This is not a duplicate.
Isn’t “RedState” run by the guy who is casting about wildly to find a third party candidate to run against Trump?
What states will Cruz win that Romney lost?
Your graciousness outperforms that realities. TRUMP will be NO ONE'S VP!
TRUMP loses nomination with millions more voters, and GOP is going down in November. Whether it be with the Canadian or anyone else>
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If the Demmies run Hillary, he may win them all.
He polls well against Hillary in 47 states.
There are too many factual inaccuracies in the “article” to be taken seriously.
"I'm sitting this one out if Trump loses" Hillary supporting nonsense."
That's not in my post - anywhere.
I think your candidate is viable too and only with massive support from the very cartel he claims he wants to eradicate, and that's a problem for me. I'm not allowed into the rooms where the deals are being made, none of us are, so I can't provide the proof you're looking for.
We all have to read the tea leaves.
But let me ask you this -> Your candidate is deeply in cooperation with precisely the establishment he has claimed is 'The Cartel' -> he's joined it. He's working with Bushes, he co-authored an op-ed in the WSJ supporting TPA, his campaign has been legitimately accused of dirty tricks, his senatorial bid was financed by the belly of the CronyCapitalist beast (and he lied about it,) his wife wrote the book on globalizing the US, essentially dissolving it into a continental entity reminiscent of the book 1984. His debate team couldn't stand him, few people who work with him can stand him. Early videos of him wanting T&A and power. You can say whatever you want about that being kid stuff -> I never would said that, never, ever ever, never.
I can't give you hard evidence, but hard evidence isn't required because he's not on trial - he's trying to convince me to support his candidacy. I've seen enough that my 'that guy is only on HIS OWN side' meter has pinned - and to be honest, it pinned the first time I saw him speak. I wanted to believe differently, and I'd love to be wrong, I'm quiet sure I'm not.
So, what is your answer to list above? Is that not enough to make you wonder, deeply, if there is anything behind Cruz other than a semi-high-IQ trained in the art of debate - trained in the art of taking any side, whether he believes it or not? Why do you trust him? That's what needs something super close to proof, not the criticisms.
Do you doubt Trump is competent enough, loves America enough?
Do you REALLY, in the depths of your heart, fully think Cruz loves America - or does he not really care, but he does really love to debate, and he does really relish power?
Why not give him 8 more years on the political stage, not as president, to mature and also to prove himself to be what he says - so many people have the same reaction as I do - could you be missing something they are not? But if in fact he's honest -> To learn how to persuade people? What makes you think he'll be effective when no one wants to work with him? (Unless of course he sells out to the Cartel - in which case he will appear to be a very good negotiator ... everything will have already been negotiated ... and none of it will be good for us - it will be a power sharing deal between him and the Cartel)
So that's where I come from -> in part my sense is that everyone has already dug their heals in, and that's fine. My support for Trump is rational and I've examined myself and my motives as deeply as I can. I also have some first hand knowledge of the type of guy he is having known someone for a time who lived in his building, was on the Board of Trustees of Trump tower, went to college a year early and finished 2 years early, and was a zealous Ayn Rand lover, something I also am. This one also had the highest moral content of virutally anyone I've ever met (you'd have to, to love Ayn Rand that much -> in terms of integrity and what that means)
Trump's pretty much a known quantity to me - as much as he can be.
Cruz - not much track record, and a hell of a lot of red flags. Trump has been on trial his whole life - been acquitted, albeit with scars - I have some of my own and they don't detract from my integrity. Cruz ... ? ... ? I'll give him this -> he debates well. Not sure that's a plus. He's also the Cartel's last chance, and appears to be changing his stance of getting rid of them to dealing with them. 4 legs good, two legs bad two legs better.
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You are unique.
99.99% of Trump supporters will be happy with Cruz.
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But many trump supporters don't care what Cruz DID to stop the rinos, they just want there new badboy boyfriend. Trump puts on such a good show and promises things like Bernie does and they believe every word, like Bernie supporters. So he has been successful in business. And I think any republican candidate will fix it. What about actually understanding legally how to stop the gay, lesbian, transgender, queer.,...attack on our children being forced into believing evil is good and good is evil. Boys can use girls bathrooms, Christians have to bake wedding cakes for gays....our church and many others have gay transgendered activist coming in and crying it's not fair we won't marry them. We had a cross dresser use the ladies room...These are real life things happening today and trump is really talking about it. The economy needs fixed, but God won't bless us if we put money before our children. Cruz wIll address all these issues and more.
Cruz can win New York? California? Hawaii? Massachusetts?
Really?
So trump lied. He said he had his best lawyers all over it and Cruz is ok legally. Then when Cruz started to win trump attacked him like a politican would. Can’t have it both ways.
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Why vote Canadian?
Vote for the American!!
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>> “Your candidate is deeply in cooperation with precisely the establishment he has claimed is ‘The Cartel’ -> he’s joined it.” <<
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That is a bald-faced lie!
The party has joined Cruz.
They want to win to keep their own seats.
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This (the OP) is how I see it: Trump leads on first ballot but falls 100 delegates or so short of 1237,
then, by the 4th ballot, Cruz wins.
(This assumes no rule changes — and the continuing enforcement of Rule 40’s requirement that any potential nominee have the support of a majority of delegates in 8+ states/ territories. Only Trump and Cruz will satisfy that rule, but it COULD be changed.)
I still think enough Trump supporters will “take their marbles and go home,” and thus elect Hillary, but I think that Trump would lose by even more, along with handing the Senate and perhaps the House to the Dems.
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