Posted on 04/03/2016 6:12:24 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
What rich irony, if one of the most calculating politicians in modern American politics miscalculated the will of Wisconsin's Republican voters, something Democrats have done repeatedly since 2010.
If Donald Trump loses Wisconsin's primary on Tuesday, it will not be because of the uproar over his comments about Ted Cruz's wife, Heidi. Or his reaction to the confrontation with a female reporter that led to an arrest summons for his campaign manager. Or even his suggestion that women who get abortions should face “some form of punishment” if Roe v. Wade is overturned.
Instead, it will be his misunderstanding of Badger State conservatives' deep relationship with their elected officials, one that does not take well to outsiders trying to divide them from the people they worked so hard to put and keep in office.
Trump ran into a buzz saw in Wisconsin last week when he went on the local talk-radio circuit, which is staunchly conservative and widely influences Republican voters — very different from national talk-show hosts who don't ask him tough questions and lean toward rabble-rousing rather than ideological discussions....
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Wisconsin was going to be a tough state for Trump, it’s the home of Paul Ryan, Rinse Rerinse, and Scott Walker, who was the Golden Boy until Trump got in the race. Plus, the two talk radio shows have long been #nevertrumpers. The anti-Trump Super PAC’s have been carpet bombing Trump for the last two weeks in Wisconsin, and so has the Cruz and Kasich campaigns.
Despite all that, the polls show Trump coming in 2nd within 5 or 6 points of Cruz. Anyone else facing such heavy artillery would be in single digits by now.
It has nothing to do with Trump misreading anything.
Wisconsin is just one more battle. Even if it goes extremely well for Cruz on the 19th he will still most likely lose enough of the candidates in New York that he will no longer be able to mathematically get a majority of the delegates before the convention. At that point the Cruz campaign will be no more legitimate than the Kasich campaign.
Trump can begin arguing that a vote for Cruz or Kasich is a vote for the GOP establishment to pick the nominee. A vote for Cruz or Kasich will mean that the path to destruction that the party bosses have agreed to will continue unabated.
For evidence all Trump would have to do is point to recent statements from Carl Rove, Paul Ryan, Reince Priebus, Lindsay Graham, Mitch McConnell. If that is not enough we have the recent debacle in Tennessee that confirms this as well.
Hopefully— if he hires some better people to hold onto the delegates-— I still think he will have enough to win on the first ballot— but is about 50-50, so who knows for sure.. It is too early to tell..
Who cares,so are you.
I just don’t see Trump losing this. Wisconsin has a open primary, and I expect a lot of indies to show up (and maybe some blue collar Dems). I’m thinking that Trump should win it by 2/3%, but with Missouri being as close as it was, it could go to Cruz.
I’m also thinking that Cruz’ sex scandal rumors cost him 5% of his vote.
You see the Democrats and the Media [but I repeat myself...] do this in general elections all the time.
Sorry for the android auto-correct typo. Candidates in the first sentence was of course intended to be delegates.
Will New York be Cruz’s Hiroshima?
This poll of over 50,000 voters says different.
Cruz will win Wisconsin but I don’t think it will be by a huge margin. I’m sure you will let me know if I am wrong.
Waterloo? What was Ted’s Waterloo? When did it become pretty near impossible for Ted to get 1237 given the calendar? February? March? I think it was March.
OK...Cruz wins Wisconsin...That gives him 10 states to Trump’s 20 states...
Trump has 736 delegates...Cruz has 463...
If trump wins 12 delegates in Wisconsin, he will have 748.
If Cruz wins 30 delegates in Wisconsin, he will have 493.
Where is the “Waterloo”????????
It is funny too because if you take out the super-delegates, who can change their votes, Trump is winning by a higher percentage than Hillary and yet Hillary is a shoe-in and Trump won’t make it...
You gave me a great laugh with that one and yes, either NY or PA will be Cruz’ Hiroshima…LOL.
So it’s his Waterloo because he’s....never lost any other states?
See, freespirit2012 - this is what I described as putting "the skeer" [the scare] on someone.
It's also known by its more common name: "agitprop"
Agitprop is a Socialist/Communist specialty, though the United States indulges in it occasionally. :)
Huh? He’s lost plenty of states, starting with the first one.
It’s Cruz’s Cemetery Ridge.
Staunchly conservative?
Not hardly.
"Staunchly GOPe" is a better characterization.
Mark Belling was despondent when the Memorizer Bunny had to drop out.
He probably didn't bad-mouth The Won as much in 2012 as he's bad-mouthing Trump this year.
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