I read it (and this isn't the first time I've seen it). My reaction:
Posted on 02/22/2016 11:15:28 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Sounds like a Marvel Team-Up, and perhaps as unrealistic -- at least for the moment. Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley and his team express their amazement over Donald Trump's sustained dominance in a crowded field, but believe that the inevitable consolidation will expose a cap for Trump's support in Republican primaries. If the GOP wants to accelerate that process, they argue, then they need to get Marco Rubio and John Kasich to partner up on a Florida-Ohio GOP ticket, starting now (via Peter Schorsch):
Now that Bush is out, Rubio might want to consider a daring gambit -- openly offering Kasich the vice presidential slot in exchange for the Ohio governor's support. (Ronald Reagan did something similar much later in his 1976 campaign, right before the Republican convention, and while it didn't work out, Reagan shook up conventional wisdom. It is a tactic worth considering.) If Rubio can somehow push Kasich out after Bush's exit, it seems reasonable to think that the lion's share of their supporters would go to him, and in a three-way race, that could be enough for Rubio to start getting the victories he has failed to secure so far. However, Kasich seems inclined to continue to run, and the Republican power brokers who favor a Rubio-Kasich ticket probably won't take the risks necessary to make this happen.
Let's make no mistake: Trump, amazingly, is in a commanding position to become the Republican presidential nominee. The fact that he won about the same share of the vote in New Hampshire and South Carolina -- two wildly different states -- shows the broad appeal of his campaign among a significant portion of the Republican electorate. As we noted in the Crystal Ball on Thursday, we're rapidly approaching a critical point in the Republican primary process: After Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio vote on March 15, nearly 60% of the Republican delegates will have been won. If someone is going to beat Trump, Rubio probably has the best shot, but the hour is growing late for all of the non-Trump candidates.
Why not Ted Cruz? After all, Cruz has actually won a state (Iowa), which Rubio has not. The Crystal Ball team see Cruz' disappointing third-place finish in South Carolina while running hard on evangelical identity as a harbinger of disappointment:
Trends from Iowa and New Hampshire manifested themselves once again in South Carolina. Trump did better among voters with lower education levels, while Rubio did better among the more educated. Cruz did well with the most conservative voters, but he doesn't show much appeal outside of the hard-liners. To have a shot, Cruz must do well in the most religious and conservative states. Unquestionably, South Carolina is one of them, yet Cruz didn't get a single delegate. Cruz is well-funded and has some theoretically promising states coming up on Super Tuesday -- like his home state of Texas -- but his hopes of winning the nomination seem to be dwindling, at least at the moment.
The only way this works is if the race has truly gotten down to either Trump or Rubio. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy made a case for that scenario on Morning Joe earlier today:
House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Monday suggested that the Republican presidential race is now down to Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, leaving out Ted Cruz.
"I see it more as Trump-Rubio," McCarthy said during an interview on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" as the hosts discussed pundits who ruled out candidates like Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
"Cruz's whole strategy of winning - he wasn't planning on Trump - and when you look going through the evangelical vote and others, he just lost that," McCarthy added.
That argument is hard to credit, though, mainly because of the scoreboard. Rubio has 3rd, 5th, and 2nd place finishes; Cruz has a win and a pair of 3rd places; Kasich has a 2nd-place finish in New Hampshire. On a money and organization basis, Cruz and Rubio do better than Trump, while Kasich may be all but tapped out. One can make a case for a three-man race -- in fact, that's almost certainly reality now -- but not a two-man race, unless either Cruz or Rubio drop out. And since they both see each other as the obvious beneficiary of such a suspension, neither has any incentive to go first.
Would the Rubio-Kasich Marvel team-up work? Sabato's team uses Reagan's bid in 1976 as a favorable precedent, but let's not forget that it didn't work for Reagan. Still, a Florida-Ohio ticket would be a conventional-wisdom dream in the general election, especially with a young and charismatic presidential nominee at the top and a two-term governor and former budget hawk as running mate. It would make Republicans instantly more credible in two states they need to win in November, and without which Democrats maintain their White House lease. (For more on the importance of Florida and Ohio, and how Republicans can win both, watch for my book GOING RED.)
In this cycle, conventional wisdom hasn't played very well in the primaries, even if it's likely to find more connection in the general election. The Rubio-Kasich combination might consolidate the moderates and anti-Trump forces in the party behind Rubio, but it would also perhaps shift the "very conservative" vote to Cruz. Could that drain support from Trump? Possibly, but the result would be to make a brokered convention more likely -- and perhaps put that Rubio-Kasich combination on the ticket as a result. That seems to be the most optimistic outcome for those looking to preclude Trump's march to the nomination.
If history is any consideration, putting a woman on the ticket seems to be the kiss of death. (unfortunately)
How have your elected conservatives done in Congress?
This is an epic battle for survival for this country.
The house is burning but the curtains in the bedroom better be blue, dammit.
Whew! Trump squeaked it out !
Maybe you should look at this before you dismiss the “birther” charges:
http://powderedwigsociety.com/eligibility-of-cruz-and-rubio/
I am still shocked... and there is no sarcasm in that statement.... I really did not think South Carolina would turn out like it did...
Handwriting, meet wall.
People can read polls. They were a tad off in both NH (undercounting Trump) and SC (over counting by a few) but the direction is unmistakable. Common sense tells you Kasich cannot win any southern state. Cruz has no chance in MA, VT, RI, NY, DE, CT, NJ, MI, IL, and apparently PA and OH. That leaves Rubes, who is second in most but 10-20 points behind.
Of course they are desperate to deal. They have no chance to stop Trump anywhere and they know it.
Right now Trump is the ONLY one on America’s side.
Get ready for the dark side of politics. Did you know, Trump is the reincarnation of Mussolini. and his supporters are now being accused of being fascists... I am not joking. Seems ‘free trade’ = cheap labor, a commodity necessary to keep wall street flush.
The good thing is that the GOPe has trashed Trump nonstop for eight months, dug up every comment, made every slimy argument. So while the left will not lack motivation, they aren’t going to find much new.
Meg was begging Kasich to take the VP slot last night. It was pathetic to watch.
Pray America wakes
You mean the type of Conservatism that has your wife making $800K from Goldman Sachs? Is that your definition of Conservative? Someone who was a proponent of the One World economy.
Yeah, keep your head buried in the sand Mr Conservative. Trump is the only Capitalist in the race.
Pray America wakes
Sabato knows no more about politics than the average freeper, and in many cases less.
Yeah, keep your head buried in the sand Mr Conservative. Trump is the only Capitalist in the race.
Pray America wakes
So making a lot of money is bad if it's Heidi Cruz, but good if it's Trump. Just like backing single payer, Planned Parenthood, and Kelo - and shouting "Bush lied, people died" - is bad if you're Barack Obama but good if it's Trump.
LS, after 15-plus years on here I thought you were better than this kind of empty assertion. But then, I thought FR was a better place than what it seems to have become.
I read it (and this isn't the first time I've seen it). My reaction:
You do realize the best way to launder money in DC is using the spouse. Who knows if this is graft and corruption, but the appearance of corruption is corruption.
Trump made his own money and she is on salary. Do you have a statue of Saint Cruz on your dash?
She's on a leave of absence without pay.
Trump made his own money and she is on salary.
You don't think Trump is neck-deep in graft and corruption? Bless your heart.
Do you have a statue of Saint Cruz on your dash?
Nah, you should probably re-read my posts.
Given the ridiculous attacks on Trump, I would agree with your last statement.
‘Sabato’ is the root word for ‘sabotage’.
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