Posted on 10/05/2015 2:58:14 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Over the past week, responses from political scientists to my recent feature critiquing The Party Decides have poured in — see Seth Masket at the Pacific Standard, and Hans Noel and Jonathan Ladd at Mischiefs of Faction here on Vox. And one common point made by them is quite true — it's still early, the theory is about who will actually win, and polling conducted around this time has frequently failed to predict who will win. Clearly, we can't settle that question now.
Yet my skepticism isn't just about what's unfolding this year. It's about what's happened over the past 12 years of presidential primaries, and how I think that should inform our view of the parties' strength.
For instance, Ladd summarizes the theory as stating that "support from party insiders and organized party factions" determines who wins the nomination. But — according to the authors' own metric, of public endorsements from party insiders before Iowa — that isn't what happened for Democrats in 2004. Or for Democrats in 2008. Or for Republicans in 2008.
Obviously, none of these races ended with a nominee as alien to the party establishment as Donald Trump (or Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, or even Bernie Sanders).
All the same, the lack of successful elite coordination in three of the past four presidential primaries makes me skeptical whether it's true that, as Ladd suggests, "the Republican nominee is highly likely to be Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio, the only two remaining candidates who are broadly acceptable to party insiders."(continued)
(Excerpt) Read more at vox.com ...
We’re doomed if we’re down to Bush and Rubio.
“Savvy observers”?
Bush and Rubio?
What a crock.
down to.... is the perfect description
Still trying to manipulate the voters, that’s all.
The REALLY savvy guys are sure its going to be Gilmore vs. Chafee in 2016.
If so, guess I’ll leave he president slot untouched. I’ll not vote for RINOs.
Ever.
May as well let the Hillabeast take control, transition our country from a stall into a full spin, and hope that we can rebuild the wreckage from scratch.
After capturing, torturing, eviscorating, and burning each and every progressive.
Oh, forgot, and flush the remains down the Obama-Pliance.
Glad i am not savvy.
More like delusional observers.
So the GOP Pres field is to be restricted to AMNESTY supporters for the hoards devouring our country? Don’t count on me voting.
That’s stupid, Bush and Rubio aren’t even different people. Have you ever seen them both in the same room at the same time?
The idea it would come down to those two amnesty cheerleaders is just GOPe wishful thinking.
Do they mean down to Bush and Rubio for the #5 slot? ehehe
I guess 2 months of Trump way on top is a non-factor...
Oh yeah. If that's where we really are then Clinton might as well move in the White House now.
If the RNC is able to deliver the amnesty candidate they owe to The Cheap Labor Express, the GOP will become extinct as a party.
Wishful thinking. I wouldn’t leave the house for either of them and a lot of voters won’t.
,,,,, explain savvy ,,, I must be something other than savvy for sure .
,,,,, explain savvy ,,, I must be something other than savvy for sure .
Just what universe do these “savvy observers” live in?
First off, the final shape of the competition for the nomination as the Republican candidate for President of the United States is still largely up in the air. People have been anticipating The Donald shall implode at any moment, and it hasn’t happened yet. Other contenders, though they may have hidden weaknesses in some manner or another, are not yet conclusively eliminated even now. There are several who either have, or soon will have, money problems, and once it starts drying up, so do their chances. This is more likely to happen to Jeb than to, say, Ted Cruz or Ben Carson, both of whom have a much more broadly-based list of contributors.
They are now going to spin the fact that Rubio and Bush can’t rise in the polls as “Oh, they don’t need to. They have the support of ‘party insiders.’” Well, sorry, that’s not the way the primaries work, and if the GOP even thinks about disregarding the primary voters’ wishes, there will be a rebellion at the GOP convention that will make Chicago 1968 look like Woodstock.
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