Are we destined for a “Rubio versus Cruz” primary?

Erick Erickson makes the case. Theory: This match-up, more than any other, would bring the most happiness to all wings of the party.

I think Trump will fade, Fiorina will fade, and Carson is already fading. They are doing so because their momentum is based more on name identification and not on records or ground games.

If we look at traditional campaign data, which under the smoke and veneer of Campaign 2016 still matters, what we will find is that Ted Cruz is laying down a hell of a ground game and has tons of cash with not nearly the burn rate that even Jeb Bush has. Cruz stands to profit the most from the collapse of Carson, Fiorina, and Trump — all of whom are playing on the outsider advantages right now. Those advantages will start to go away as more traditional and necessary campaign tactics and strategies kick in like, for example, ballot access…

While conservatives will gravitate rapidly to Cruz, the more establishment oriented people who recognize the party still needs a fresh face and chage will likely go to Marco Rubio. Already I’m hearing that both Walker and Bush donors are looking at Rubio as their next pick. Rubio has the highest positives of any of the candidates and is, in fact, the one Republican that the Democrats desperately fear because of his perceived ability to attract women, young voters, and Hispanics…

I think over the coming weeks, the campaign vultures will circle the Scott Walker campaign, looking to see if he has a pulse and, if they find none, will begin in earnest to pull voters and donors away from him. I suspect we’ll see the more conservative elements head to Cruz and the more establishment elements head to Rubio.

Would tea partiers be happy with that? Hell yeah. What sort of conservative doesn’t respect Ted Cruz? Would Trump fans? Not all, but for many Cruz will be an acceptably anti-establishment populist consolation prize. Center-righties? Of course. There’s no one in either field as likable as center-right Marco Rubio. Establishmentarians? You betcha. Not only will they have a guy in Rubio who went to bat for them on amnesty, they’ll have not one but two Latino candidates left standing to represent the party after Trump spent months ranting about Mexican rapists. And not just Latino but young — both Cruz and Rubio are just 44 years old. They’re both charismatic, highly intelligent, and preternaturally polished in their public speaking. Who wouldn’t enjoy this race?

It’s not hard to see how the field winnows to these two either. For Rubio, it’s a simple matter of Scott Walker’s campaign finally keeling over now that it’s gasping for air and the donor class reluctantly accepting that they’re pumping a dry well in Jeb Bush. If Walker’s numbers don’t start to improve soon, we might see donors abandon him by Halloween. Jeb will take longer to fade because of his financial support, but if Rubio leaps ahead of him in the polls and stays there for a month or two, pressure will increase on Jeb to get out of the way and let Rubio consolidate the center. Cruz’s challenge is bigger in that he needs Trump, Carson, and Fiorina to fade before he become a serious threat, but as Erick says, it’s easy to imagine the latter two slipping and their supporters shifting to the most outsider-y insider in the race, i.e. Cruz. Meanwhile, I continue to think Trump will find an excuse to quit the race sometime this winter unless he’s implausibly bounced out to such a huge lead in the polls that he looks to be a walkover winner in Iowa and/or New Hampshire. He’s not going to take his chances in those states if the polls are competitive; the damage to the Trump brand and to his own self-image will be too great if he loses. He needs to know going in that he’ll win or else he’ll drop out and spend the rest of his life telling everyone that he would have won if he’d only stuck it out. Once that happens, Cruz takes off — in theory.

I don’t know that I agree with Erickson, though, that Cruz has a “slight advantage” over Rubio. I understand the argument: Cruz is well funded, he’ll be very strong in the SEC primary, and he’s not compromised on the crucial issue of immigration the way Marco “Gang of Eight” Rubio is. The counterargument is that if and when Bush and Walker are out of the way, most of the donor class is going to shower Rubio with dough in the interest of stopping Cruz. And Rubio, at least in theory, has a wider base of voters than Cruz does. He’ll lost most of the conservative vote to Cruz but certainly not all of it, and meanwhile centrists and center-righties will swoon over Rubio as the sunny, sensible alternative to that guy who always seems to be on Fox News calling for government shutdowns. The X factor is the calendar: If Cruz and Rubio split the early states somehow and then Cruz cleans up in the southern states, would the non-conservative parts of the party rally to Rubio after that in an all-out “Not Cruz” effort? Or would Cruz’s momentum after his wins in the south be such that Rubio realistically couldn’t catch up to him in delegates afterward? Let’s hope we find out, because this would be the best GOP race in decades.

The electorate is sick and tired of beltway politicians.

The times are a changin’

Walker's gone, soon it will be Christie, Huckabee, Kasich, Graham, Paul — all politicians, and folks don't want the politicians who have already proven they don't represent their constituents any more.

Carly will be drug through the MSM tripwires over her $42 million golden parachute after being fired at HP for underperformance. I wish she had a better performance record, but sadly, she does not. She lost to Barbara Boxer, a loser if there ever was one. She's the candidate the Democrats want, but not the one the Republicans are going to rally behind. She hasn't even been on one board of directors since being fired at HP (possibly one, dropped soon thereafter).

Carson comes across as a nice person (and I like him a lot) that can't stand up to the Democrat and MSM onslaught — they are already skewering him over the Muslim President quote. We need an attack dog to go after the liberals this time.

Cruz and Rubio may gain traction, but they are mostly being ignored by the MSM, so they both have an uphill struggle to get “big donors” behind them.

Jeb Bush is toast — donors are going to continue to flee from him due to his poultry polling numbers. If any Democrats cross the line due to distaste for Hillary, they surely won't cross into Bush's camp, but they WILL cross into Trump's camp BECAUSE MOST AMERICANS ARE AGAINST THIS ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION ONSLAUGHT.

You are ignoring the N-U-M-B-E-R-S, the poll numbers, the campaign attendance numbers, the number of MSM articles and newscasts, the number of Blacks and Mexicans falling in behind Trump (have you looked at those numbers?).

The Democrats are going after Trump almost exclusively, and that's a number I like.

The MSM is totally ignoring Jeb Bush now.

I invite you to take a look at how this is shaping up. If you were around during the early Reagan campaign, you will see the similarities at how the MSM treats Trump. They keep trying to discount him, but they are discounting the numbers too.

He ain't going away.

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>> “Cruz and Rubio may gain traction, but they are mostly being ignored by the MSM, so they both have an uphill struggle to get “big donors” behind them.” <<

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Written by either a complete idiot, or a devious scammer.

Cruz is well connected to the big independent donors because they realize that he is the only acceptable candidate running.

He is also #1 by a wide margin with grass roots donors.

Soon Trump will finish decomposing, as more and more of his gullible followers realize that his bombast is pure vaporware, his change of positions solely a matter of expedience for the moment. Only Cruz has substance and a well thought out plan of action.
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I agree, I don't see much difference on policy between any of the candidates other than Trump and Cruz. The rest, even Carson, on policy are pretty much establishment types with a minor differences here and there. I must say on character Carson is hands down the best of the GOPe bunch and Carly the slimy worst.

However I disagree with you about Trump. I like Trump, Cruz is a good guy too, but on issues that matter to me, immigration, trade and the economy Trump is better.

Trump is also more electable than Cruz. (The following depends on who the Rats nominate of course) Rank and file democrats like Trump and more then a few will vote for Trump. Cruz would get very few cross over votes. The same goes for minorities, Trump will get some, Cruz would get none.

Trump vrs Hillary: Trump in a landslide.
Trump vrs Biden: Trump by a nose.
Trump vrs Sanders: Hard to call.

" his change of positions solely a matter of expedience for the moment."

One of the things I like about Trump is that he studies issues and then gets things right. As an example I submit the Syrian refugee crisis. At first Trump say "we have to do something "(take in more) but after studying the issue concluded,

I think we should help, but I think we should be very careful because frankly, we have very big problems. We're not gonna have a country if we don't start getting smart," he said. "We cannot help everybody through the world. Europe should help. Russian should help. China, they're not doing anything. The Gulf states are doing nothing. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, any of the gulf states, they're doing nothing. They should all help. And then maybe we could do something. But we have big problems to solve and we better solve them fast."

Cruz is also one that is sometimes wrong out of the gate but then get it right. I like that.

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