Posted on 08/23/2015 10:00:19 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
How meaningful is Donald Trump’s impressive lead in the polls, really? Not very meaningful, think most people in the know. Here’s why.
Donald Trump’s authoritative lead in early polling in the 2016 Republican race for the presidential nomination has left Americans excited, confused and afraid.
Trump hasn’t been out of first place in national polling since he filed as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission in mid-July. Most polls have him leading in the double digits.
He is not only ahead on paper. He draws the biggest crowds, too. A rally for the candidate in Mobile, Alabama, on Friday night had to be moved to a larger stadium to accommodate a horde of thousands – although the estimated crowd of 20,000 fell short of the 40,000 the Trump campaign said had RSVP’d.
“We could make a call for an expedited election,” Trump told those at the rally. “I would like to have the election tomorrow – I don’t want to wait.”
Nobody’s fired. Everybody’s fired up.
But can Donald Trump really win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination?
Knowledgable people think he might. They include some journalists, some former Republican consultants and operatives, talk show host Bill Maher and a contestant from season three of NBC’s The Apprentice, who now is co-chairperson of Trump’s Iowa operation.
But more-knowledgable people think he won’t. They include the quants and geeks, some Republican consultants and operatives, and lots of political scientists.
A trio of political data experts empanelled by FiveThirtyEight for a podcast earlier this month estimated Trump’s chances of snagging the nomination at 2%, 0% and minus-10%, respectively.
“If Trump is nominated, then everything we think we know about presidential nominations is wrong,” Larry Sabato....
(Excerpt) Read more at theguardian.com ...
Their train is coming off the tracks, smell the fear.
Knowledgeable people think he might...
-Bill Maher
- trio of political data experts empanelled by FiveThirtyEight
-Larry Sabato
Tweedle Dees & Tweedle Dums.
While Trump raises an important issue, the anchor baby scam, he will not be the nominee. Listen closely to what he says. He says the same things he has been saying. Stated differently, other than bombast he has little to offer.
Rubio, Cruz, Bush, Carson, Fiorina and possibly Huckabee (because he knows the issues so well)and Kasich and maybe Walker are the only true potential candidates. Trump’s 15 minutes are drawing to a close very soon.
These political “insiders” hate it when their wisdom fails. They say it won’t happen when the know it will.
Yeah, this is like those statistical nuggets they use in baseball, like, “The Cubs have lost to the Cardinals 91% of months in which the Iranian embassy had only mowed its lawns less than four times in the month prior to the played month.”
Like that has any bearing on reality. They are doing the same, here.
If stuff goes down starting in September we may not see another POTUS elected.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkELgi6EkNo
“Just interested in what is best for America.” Then think beyond your ken and consider a non-rhino.....
Well, if it isn’t him it had better be Cruz.
I see they’re still underreporting the Attendance at the Alabama Event that was held in record Heat with threatening Thunderstorms. The 20,000 number is only 50% off the mark.
The Media is the only thing transparent when there is a Democrat Administration.
What a load of crapola. Trump is no where close to being 'kind of rude', is three steps up from that on the rudeness scale.
I get my doo m & gloom news from David Icke.
I suppose rampant “homelessness” will return the day Trump and/or Cruz are sworn in...
The Biblically-based stuff is even better!
Cruz is running a marathon, but will need to step it up and get around the pacer into the lead if he wants to draw more voters. He will need to express himself, in a clear and loud way or simply settle for second place.
Carson's appeal is that he is an honest outsider. I cannot see that being sufficient to carry him through. Need to see how he plans on taking on the beltway controllers, don't think he knows how. Being nice and soft spoken will get him served up like a back yard bar b q.
Another Trump drinking game article. I will need detox after this campaign /s
Differences between Giuliani, Herman Cain & Trump:
Rudy & Herman needed rich donor sugar daddy’s to stay in campaign. Trump does not.
Rudy was photographed dressed as a woman. Not good!
Herman had several bimbo eruptions, although never proven, took their toll on his rich donors.
OTOH Trump is the quintessential alpha male.
Not even The Enquirer has any stories of Trump having affairs, even though he is surrounded by beautiful women.
Finally, Trump is a much more impressive looking person, with 6’4” height and has hair. Rudy & Herman did not have much hair.
Along with Women and Children being at risk.
I’ve dealt with worse. Those schmucks are lightweights.
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