Posted on 03/28/2015 9:16:10 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
John Zogby, founder of the Zogby Poll and the Zogby companies, is an internationally renowned pollster, author and political pundit. He spoke to the Trib regarding U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas becoming the first Republican candidate to officially announce a 2016 presidential bid.
Q: Does Cruz benefit at all by being the first GOP candidate to be formally out of the gate?
A: I don't think so, but it doesn't hurt him, either. He got the news cycle on a slow news day, so he took advantage of that and he got the announcement in his hometown newspaper first, which is correct. (But) there are just too many dynamics afloat and multiple sectors of the party that it's really no advantage or disadvantage.
Q: Is there a risk of Cruz getting lost in a sea of other conservative Republican candidates?
A: To put it bluntly, yes. There's not only a large pool of (potential) GOP candidates, but an extra-large number of conservative candidates and tea party-favorite candidates, who are doing about as well as — if not a little better than — he is in the polls and who will split the vote.
There's (neurosurgeon) Ben Carson and (Kentucky Sen.) Rand Paul on the tea party side, (former Pennsylvania Sen.) Rick Santorum, (former Arkansas Gov.) Mike Huckabee, who you might say is yesterday's news — except he's still doing as well as anyone in the polls.
Q: Do you think Cruz has a shot at winning (early caucus state) Iowa or (early primary state) New Hampshire?
A: If he has a shot anywhere, it's Iowa. Iowa is a lot about organization, it has a lot to do with publicity, and I could see somebody like him possibly winning.
You know, he's got passion among his supporters, and he has key party supporters. But Ron Paul always did very well in Iowa. Huckabee not only did very well in Iowa, but also has kept (a visible) profile. Santorum actually won in Iowa. So the field is going to be crowded. Winning in Iowa is going to be difficult.
Cruz has no chance in New Hampshire at all. It's not a socially conservative spot — 40 percent, sometimes 45 percent of the votes are from independents and they're not generally on the more conservative end of things. Ronald Reagan and Pat Buchanan have won in New Hampshire ... but that's generally a more moderate candidate (who) usually shines there.
Q: If Iowa is iffy and New Hampshire unwinnable, how long do you see Cruz being able to sustain his candidacy? What's his end game?
A: What I can see is an attempt (by Cruz) to emerge even stronger as the tea party spokesperson. He had a day in the sun (with his announcement). There may well be others.
But his problem is, he's a flame-thrower and he annoys virtually everybody outside of his core base of tea partyers.
Now if that's what enough GOP voters want, who knows? But it seems to me that the GOP ultimately will nominate a safer candidate who could win, especially after having been out of the White House for eight years.
I may be dead wrong — and I've actually been that a few times — but from the vantage point of now looking ahead, it's just hard for me to see (Cruz's candidacy) coming together. Here's a case where it's likely we'll see an “ABC” coalition emerge on the GOP side — Anybody But Cruz.
You sir are one of the last of the true believers that ideas matter and not money! Good luck to you as I have given up on the idea.
Money controls who gets into politics and who benefits. Yes, that does mean that money controls Government and if you don’t realize it yet, you must be a Conservative (heh)...
Zogby? That Lefty putz is an Arab Muslim sympathizer. He is doing everything he can to support the Marxist DemonRATs who hate everything about our Judeo-Christian culture. I would throw his polls in the ash can.
quote “There’s
(neurosurgeon) Ben Carson ??? who ??
and (Kentucky Sen.) Rand Paul on the tea party side
ROFL .. quack
(former Pennsylvania Sen.) Rick Santorum
um... yeah right, ole frothy couldn’t get elected dog catcher!
(former Arkansas Gov.) Mike Huckabee
NUT
nope! None of those are an issue.
It will be either Cruz or Walker. The rest are nobodies.
The Huckster is NOT a "CONSERVATIVE" let alone a Tea Party "darling".
Rand is a chip off his father's decrepit, doper/Isolationist, block and he's also now a McConnell acolyte!
Santorum? Bwaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahahahah
Carson......the never ran for, let alone ever held an elected office and is almost as big a gaffe machine as Biden ?
John Zogby - take a flying _ _ _ _.
It’s all about the money. :( I have to agree.
Ping.
Not always.
David Brat trounced Eric Cantor, even though Cantor had all the money.
Ah yes, unfortunate as it is, it does seem that elections are going the way of the greenback! Too bad as democracy seems to be fading even faster! Ideas used to be the thing, but today, only the buck buys the ignorant vote. Government used to be about how they would govern, today it is about how much they can provide. Yes, Democracy as it was originally planned is probably over...
Fun while it lasted... Don’t you just love all of these folks coming to America for benefits (mostly illegally) while not thinking of the consequences? America will change alright but not to their liking I’m afraid! Lousy Progressives!!
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