0bambi and Senior Advisers (those old balding white geezers)
Advisor: "Yes Mr President....the odds of your re-election are about the same as the coin landing on its edge."
Don’t assume that at all. NJ turns out liberals, scumbags and the dead during presidential elections. I’ve seen polls where Democrats look dead in the water for years now but they almost always pull it out.
NJ goes GOP only slightly more often than Massachussetts does. Any strategy that assumes we will win in New Jersey is utter foolishness.
That’s a very big assumption. But even without that I think the GOP will almost certainly take Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia; they should take Florida; and they might take Ohio.
The only way NJ votes Republican for Pres is in a landslide win in which case their votes aren’t needed.
well,keep in mind, GOP needs to flip Ohio,Indiana,Virginia,NC,and either Fla or Penn, and Obama is done. and those are the easiest states for the GOP to win.
It is way, way, way too early to make that assumption. You are not alone in wishing that it would come to pass, but it’s still way too early.
I predict the fix is already in... as well, I live in NJ, and its scary how many mallet headed liberals still exist here
dont count on it
(D)= A-ok
Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, and Ohio should be a certainty. New Hampshire is all that is needed.
Of the states you listed, I think the safest bets right now are (in order) North Carolina, Indiana, and Virginia.
Obama took North Carolina by a third of a percent and Indiana by just a hair over 1% in a year when the GOP fielded the weakest nominee in a generation, in an environment that was the most politically toxic environment for Republicans since Watergate. And in the case of Indiana, he probably still only won the state because Lake County is, for all intents and purposes, part of the Chicago Metro Area. Both those states should go GOP this time. Virginia is (IMHO) very likely to go GOP, but you never know with the D.C. types living in NoVa. A decent GOP ticket should be able to carry it.
As for the rest, my SWAG’s (Scientific Wild Arse Guesses)
Florida: Right now, I’d bet 60/40 it goes GOP.
Ohio: Tossup. Could go either way, maybe slight GOP
favorite (Ohio FRiends feel free to correct/educate me here)
PA: 55/45 chance in favor of the Democrats. A tough fight for Republicans, but absolutely winnable.
NJ: Obama carries it by 7-9 points.
Why would you even assume that??.Christie is not all that popular in Jersey and the biggest shaker and mover politically in the state is the teacher’s union and they’ll be out in droves for DaBama.
0bambi and Senior Advisers (those old balding white geezers)
Advisor: "Yes Mr President....the odds of your re-election are about the same as the coin landing on its edge."
NJ is way outside our reach. Actually, I’m a bit concerned about NV and CO. Even if we can win FL, OH, IA, VA, NC, and even NH, I think we will still lose without NV and CO. Assuming, of course, none of the ‘purple states’ like WI, MI, or PA goes Republican, which next year might be.