The fix is in. This major push for gay marriage is occurring in a non election year. The Republican establishment has determined it is losing elections due to the social issues. It is throwing in the towel on gay marriage to get the subject off the table. It has also given in on federally funded abortions and birth control. Next capitulation is amnesty for illegals which they also want to push through this year.
With abortion, amnesty, and gay marriage off the table the party powers believe they can focus on economic issues to win the 2014 congressional elections. Based on history they are counting on conservatives to once again support them as the lesser of two evils. They’ve concluded the conservative base can’t marshall the financial resources to create a viable third party having seen the Tea Party movement fizzle in 2012.
If Kennedy votes with the progressives, count on Roberts to go with him to avoid a 5-4 split. If Kennedy stays with Scalia, Alito, and Thomas, Roberts will be faced with a 5-4 vote whichever way he goes. If it is true the White House has information to blackmail him, it isn’t hard to figure out where this one will land.
Whether that's the reason -- "losing elections due to the social issues" -- or merely visceral distaste for social conservatism, the national GOP elites seem to want to follow the "Massachusetts model." The MA GOP has been liberal on social issues for maybe 30 years or more. Its "official" position is supposed silence on social issues, but the reality is that the party will recruit and support a social liberal in a primary if a social conservative has the temerity to declare. Normally, it just recruits social liberals.
So how is this working out electorally? I believe the GOP currently holds 10-12% of legislative seats and no state-wide offices. IIRC, they held a "high" of 15% of the legislature before Romney (apparently hand-picked by the MA GOP) was governor. We've had Republican governors, but our last conservative governor was Ed King in the early 80s -- and he was a Democrat (later ousted by Dukakis).
This may go a long way to explaining why only about half of those eligible to register/vote actually vote in MA.