California Recall: Behind the numbers

Dan Weintraub Weblog ^ | October 6, 2003 | Dan Weintraub

[John Jorsett]

The Schwarzenegger campaign was circulating poll numbers Sunday from the California Correctional Peace Officers Association that showed the recall still winning big and Arnold far ahead in the replacement race. According to the campaign, the recall was leading 57-37 in the last four nights of the tracking poll, from Wednesday through Saturday. Schwarzenegger was leading the replacement race with 36 percent, followed by Bustamante at 21 and McClintock at 17.

[staytrue]

Bustamonte polling at 21-26. Bahahahahah.

[Support Free Republic]

Aww man! Enough of the fundraiser posts!!!

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[South40]

McClintock is pretty much remaining flat in the mid to high teens.

Remaining flat? That's a strange way of describing a "surge".

[eureka!]

I am so glad this puppy is almost over. Even with the recall with 15 pts and AS likewise ahead with the "slippage", I am nervous as h*ll. GoArnoldGo...

[finnman69]

I have read that based on early absentee voting and the majority of those voting for the recall something around 56%, Davis would need something around 52% election day voting NO to survive.

[finnman69]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/996108/posts

Absentee Ballots Already Cast May Defeat Davis
San Francisco Chronicle ^ | Monday, October 6, 2003 | Phillip Matier, Andrew Ross


Posted on 10/06/2003 1:14 PM EDT by tellw


ORIGINAL TITLE: Davis needs big last-minute boost to defeat recall

If the polls are any indication, the Democrats are going to need Herculean election-day support to pull Gov. Gray Davis' bacon out of the fire.

Reason: Even as polls show the race narrowing, the fact is some 2 million absentee ballots -- possibly 20 percent of the total recall vote -- already have been cast by mail.

If the "pre-groping" polling was right, it's likely that up to 56 percent of those absentee votes will be in favor of the recall.

Given the early voting, Democrats will likely need at least a 52 percent "no" on the recall vote at the ballot box -- a significantly higher number that even the most optimistic Democratic polls have shown so far.

[calcowgirl]

More poll numbers.
I wonder which ones Duf and Torres were quoting.

[Kay Soze]

for your info:

I had a nice in person convo with Gary Stone ( Local radio liberal commentator) on Sunday and as we discissed the recall and how even the NY Times recanted thier "I admire Hitler story" he said to me:

"Oh well too late" with a big grin!

[EllaMinnow]

I saw Art Torres still praising McClintock to the skies.
Doesn't that just warm your heart?

[Republic Rocker]

HOLD STEADY FREEPERS>WE NEED TO PILE IT ON THE BEST OPTIONS OF WINNING....YES on ARNOLD!

[DoctorZIn]

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[Brandon]

I don't think you can figure on the absentee ballots splitting up the same way the polls were splitting at the ti the absentees were cast. It's not a random cross section of the population that votes absentee. Usually, they tend to e more Republican, while votes cast on election day tend to tilt more Democrat. However, in this election it is possible that the absentees will actually favor Davis, since the hard core Dems already knew they were going to vote "no", while Republicans might have wanted to wait until the last minute before deciding which candidate to back.

But in any case, there is absolutely no reason to suppose that the responses on Part 1 in absentee ballots will reflect poll results that were being taken while the absentees were being cast.

[leila]

I've been nervous as all get out all weekend and today with the smear campaign against Arnold! As I heard that the support for the recall was slipping, and Arnolds numbers were also slipping, I've worried that maybe the recall wouldn't succeed after all. I just hope that the recall not only wins, but wins big! And that Arnold wins with a big majority too.

[eureka!]

I think there was some minor slippage and the presstitutes played it big. The conventional wisdom seems to be we're okay as long as the votes are cast. And they will be. Hehehehe....