Posted on 09/19/2003 3:09:22 PM PDT by LonePalm
No one outstanding in this field
The field of candidates is getting crowded with only Dean(14), Lieberman(14), Kerry(13), and Gephardt(13) polling in double digits. And that's among Democrats. ( Quinnipiac University Poll. Sept. 11-15, 2003. N=466 Democratic voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.5.) This was before Wes (is more) Clark got into the race. If Hillary is tossed into the mix, she immediately goes to the head of the class with 45% support with everyone else in single digits.
This doesn't mean that any of them poll well when matched against George W. Bush.
Why does the number of Democrat candidates continue to grow? Who benefits from the dissipation of support for the leading candidates? And what is Hillary going to do? Will she run in 2004 or wait until 2008? The only thing I am sure of is that she will NOT wait until 2012.
Field of Schemes
The Clintons have been in control of the Democrat party since 1992. They will not give up that control without a fight.
I think that the Clintons have encouraged, if not outright instigated, the expansion of the Democrat candidate field. They have done this for the express purpose of ensuring that NONE of the top four candidates can build up any momentum and possibly lock up the nomination. Why? Control of the DNC and positioning Hillary for the White House. If Dean, Lieberman, Kerry, or Gephardt gets the nomination, than Terry McAuliffe is OUT as chairman of the DNC and with him their control.
Who will get the Democrat nomination?
I think it will be Hillary. The Clintons, both Bill and Hillary, really have no other choice if they wish to retain control of the party. It would be better for Hillary to run and lose in 2004 than for any other democrat to run and win. This isn't about the party winning. It is about the Clintons.
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
Yes, but it would be better still if another democrat runs and loses. No doubt, the Clintons are perusing the polls with a magnifying glass. If they perceive that she could actually win, she will run.
This would be a disaster for the Clintons.
The Clintons also understand that there are a great many unknowns in politics. They will not even allow the possibility that any democrat other than Hillary will win the White House.
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
Because as of now they believe Hillary won't run in 2004 but they believe Hillary will run in 2008, So (assuming Hillary doesn't run) after 2004 they won't be able to run again until 2012 or God forbid a 2 term Hillary Presidentcy 2016. So for many of them because of their age even though running now against Bush is a long shot it's still now or never.
Arkancide? :)
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
I understand it is a move by the Clintons to blunt Dean......but why would they back such a flawed candidate?
Clark hasn't been in the race 24 hours and he has flip-flopped on his voting for the war.
The Clintons are running a scam here....but what is it.
Here's my guess as to what is going on:
1) Dean wants to clean house at the DNC, as you have already noted yourself. He owes the Clintons NOTHING; he was already governor of Vermont before Bill Clinton became president, and was still governor when Bill Clinton left office. He probably considers them as sleazy and damaging to the Democratic Party as we do, albeit for slightly different reasons. (I think he probably views them as the Greens and Naderites do: As "traitors to the cause.") He'd love to remove as much of their influence as possible, regardless of whether or not he wins the nomination.
2) Dean is currently the perceived frontrunner for the nomination. (I still personally believe he's more vulnerable than everyone else thinks, but for the purposes of this post, I'll go along and presume he's in front.)
3) Hillary believes that none of the other RAT candidates have a chance in hell of winning against Bush under any circumstances, except for Dean. Worse, Dean openly wants to de-Clintonize the Democratic Party, while none of the others do. (And Dean can accomplish a LOT of de-Clintonization merely by sewing up the nomination. He does not have to wait for a win in November 2004 to do this.) So Dean's not just the only threat to her 2008 chances; he's also a threat to her remaining control over the Party. Thus, Dean must be stopped.
4) Hillary knows that Wesley Clark has an ego the size of Jupiter and is just itching to jump into the race. She also knows he's got so much baggage that he's got about as much chance of actually winning as Dennis Kucinich does. However, he does have one all-important quality that the other candidates lack: He appeals to many of the same crowd that are currently salivating over Howard Dean. So she orders her closest confidantes, the true kneepadder crowd, to go work for Clark, telling them she thinks he's the RATS' best chance in 2004. Being lapdogs, they dutifully follow orders.
5) At the same time, she makes a deal with Clark: "Look, you know you're not going to beat Bush, and neither am I. But if you go out there and get enough support to stop Dean, ensuring that somebody else wins the nomination, then I'll make you my VP candidate in 2008." Weasely Clark accepts in a heartbeat.
So that's my theory in a nutshell: Hillary fears nobody except Howard Dean, and Dean's increasingly looking like he just might get the nomination. So she seduces the power- and attention-hungry Clark into playing the role of her stalking horse in 2004, with only one objective: Stop Howard Dean.
Come 2008, of course, she won't even return Wesley's phone calls, unless her pollsters tell her he'd actually be her ideal running mate (which is extremely doubtful). She's just using Clark, and for all his supposed brains, he's dumb enough to fall for it.
In chaos there is opportunity! When you aren’t sure what you plan to do, it’s best to keep everyone off balance. Backing the new guy slows the front runners down and means that it will be even easier for HRC if she decides she can beat Bush. If you have one guy way out front his supporters would be real pissed at a last minute run, so she must keep anyone from getting too far ahead. BTW this requires that she not give a damn if another dim wins in 2004.
Ya THINK!!?!
I'm worried about VICE President Rodham-Clinton. Think of it:
• She keeps he promise not to run for president in '04
• Two years and one day into her term the first slotter gets arkincided
• Under Article XXII, she can still run for two full terms as the incumbent
• The Hillary!™ Decade begins
• Hillary uses the Patriot Act to it's fullest extent, and beyond
• At the end of the Hillary!™ Decade there is a National Emergency "temporarily" delaying the elections
• Under the pressure of the National Emergency, the 2nd and 22nd amendments are repealed...
Just as an aside, with the Clinton's love of all things Military - Wesley Clark is VERY expendible, isn't he?
If a motto in French is good enough for the Queen, it's good enough for me.
The Clintoons have arranged so that the nomination will be useless for anyone but Hillary.
That's the idea.
With ten people in the race, either no one will emerge from the primaries with enough ballots in their pockets for the nomination, which would allow Hillary to step in to unify the party.
That's the idea. Additionally, she wouldn't have to go through the bruising primary process and answer questions from the other democrats that would give Bush ammunition during the general election.
Or the party will be so divided the nominee will have only a minority of a divided party and be destined to lose.
I order of preference for Hillary,
1. She becomes president.
2. She gets the nomination and Bush wins. She is the front runner for the 2008 nomination.
3. Some other democrat gets the nomination and Bush wins.
4. Some other democrat becomes president.
Don't believe the decision has been made yet whether she will or will not run. But she is trying to ensure that should she decline running in '04, no other Democrat can win.
Exactly!
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
It doesn't matter what the average Democratic voter thinks; the only point of Clark's candidacy is to steal Howard Dean's voters. And as we have seen over the last few months, they're not the brightest bulbs in the bin. They support Dean for only two reasons: 1) He plays right into their overwhelming Bush hatred. The people for whom the ONLY issue is "Get Bush" are the ones supporting Dean. No other issues matter until after they get their revenge on Bush. 2) Dean's against the Iraq war.
Weaselly Clark can play the Bush hate game just as well, and is also anti-Iraq war. However, he can play those games while having the "gravitas" of being ex-military himself. So he's got an excellent chance of grabbing anywhere from 1/3 to 1/2 of Dean's support, simply because a lot of them will think (incorrectly, but that doesn't matter) "Well, this guy's everything Howie is, plus he'll play to those moderates that think Howie's a complete socialist nutcase!" In addition, Clark will attract supporters that are themselves Bush-haters and anti-Iraq war, but who were staying on the sidelines entirely because they found Dean to be a repulsive loose cannon.
Dean knows this, too. Remember how a week or so ago rumors were going around that Clark was about to accept Dean's offer to be his VP running mate? That was complete BS leaked by the Dean campaign to the media, in hopes that it would play well enough to sway Clark into staying out of the race entirely.
Clark can flip-flop all he wants. The RATS that are going to support him are going to support him no matter what, because they're RATS and they care only about obtaining power and getting revenge on GWB.
And all the Clintons want is for Clark to siphon enough support away from Dean to ensure some totally unelectable doormat gets the nomination, like Kerry or Gephardt. Thus 2008 will be left wide open for Hillary.
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