HURRICANE ISABEL (13L) WARNING NR 034

NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA. ^ | Sun Sep 14 19:26:56 2003 | Naval Atlantic Meterorlogy and Oceanography Center

[Tank-FL]

HURRICANE ISABEL (13L) WARNING NR 034
UNCLASSIFIED
Tropical WTNT03 VALID Sun Sep 14 19:26:56 2003 SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. HURRICANE ISABEL (13L) WARNING NR 034 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z8 --- NEAR 23.5N0 65.8W9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 75 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 60 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 75 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N0 65.8W9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 24.2N8 67.8W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 75 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 60 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 75 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 25.2N9 69.6W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 75 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 60 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 75 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 26.1N9 70.6W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 75 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 60 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 75 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 27.2N1 71.6W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 155 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 75 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 60 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 75 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 30.0N3 73.2W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 75 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 60 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 75 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 34.5N2 75.2W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 41.0N5 77.5W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

--- REMARKS: 141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 23.7N2 66.3W5 OR APPROX 940NM SE OF NOR­ FOLK, VA, 902NM ESE OF MAYPORT, FL, AND 300NM N OF ROOSEVELT ROADS, PR. INITIAL RADII OF 12FT SEAS: 325NM NE QUAD, 325NM SE QUAD, 275NM SW QUAD, AND 300NM NW QUAD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8, 150300Z9, 150900Z5 AND 151500Z2.// BT #0001 NNNN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------UNCLASSIFIED

[Tank-FL]

Norfolk Naval Base -- I bet the FLEET heads to sea soon.

[MEG33]

May the winds decrease and the storm stay out at sea.

[OpusatFR]

I'll bet Lowes is out of plywood by tomorrow.

This house is way too big for me anyway.

[Severa]

No word on it so far but from the looks of things it's pretty much a given. *looks at the map and cusses* That damned thing is going to pass RIGHT over us if this model holds...

[Tank-FL]

I just checked Norfolk Naval Base ..

http://www.navstanorva.navy.mil/

Nothing yet .. But the boilers will be a fired up tonight I bet

[Lost and Confused]

i hope i get a 'hurricane day' off from school..... 8 )

[jaz.357]

We had a "SNIPER" day in Richmond.

[Tuscaloosa Goldfinch]

Okay, dumb question. I would be afraid to ask, and am still somewhat apprehensive, but I actually heard the same question raised on a news program. Why can't some sort of daisy cutter type weapon be detonated in the hurricane too break it's momentum. I'm guessing the answer is that the force of the hurricane is to great to be disrupted by something as small as that.

[oceanview]

compared to the energy and the forces of nature in one of these things, even a nuclear weapon probably would not do anything. its like p**sing into the ocean to try and raise the water level.

[DainBramage]

Maybe jets could fly into it and go real fast in the opposite direction to slow it down.

[Age of Reason]

Why can't some sort of daisy cutter type weapon be detonated in the hurricane too break it's momentum. I'm guessing the answer is that the force of the hurricane is to great to be disrupted by something as small as that.

I doubt whether even an H bomb would slow it down.

It would be cool though: like Godzilla meets Mothra or something. LOL

(By the way, I seem to remember reading somewhere that your average thunderstorm releases the equivalent energy of a Hiroshima-sized A bomb over each acre of ground under the storm; this is probably a measure of atmospheric changes that fuel the storm--not a measure of the lightning, which I would guess would be the smaller part of it.)

[Timesink]

The bastards at NAVLANTMETOCCEN can't bother to list a SINGLE city in West Virginia on their maps?

I hope this thing hits Norfolk smack on.

[11th_VA]

I was on active duty in Norfolk when hurricane Gloria(?) brushed by. They didn't even move us out of the barracks. I wouldn't stick around for this one ...

[NTegraT]

What's most strange is that there is no Washington D.C. on this map. When it gets hit, Osama lovers will be cheering and the lefties will blame Bush (somehow).

[Cicero]

If it cuts right up Chesapeake Bay as the map suggests, it might not be slowed as much as it would be coming in over the land. But it's a pretty narrow target to predict this far out.

[Rain-maker]

Formatted so you can read it:

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. HURRICANE ISABEL (13L) WARNING NR 035   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z4 --- NEAR 23.9N4 67.0W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 85 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            70 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            85 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N4 67.0W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 24.7N3 68.9W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 85 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            70 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            85 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 25.7N4 70.2W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 85 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            70 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            85 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 26.7N5 71.3W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 85 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            70 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            85 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 28.0N0 72.2W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 155 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 85 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            70 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            85 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 31.2N6 74.0W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 85 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            70 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            85 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT   
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT   
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 36.5N4 76.0W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 43.5N2 78.0W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 24.1N7 67.5W8 OR APPROX 883NM SE OF NOR­
FOLK, VA, AND 833NM ESE OF MAYPORT, FL. INITIAL RADII OF 12FT
SEAS: 325NM NE QUAD, 325NM SE QUAD, 275NM SW QUAD, AND 300NM NW
QUAD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9, 150900Z5, 151500Z2 AND 152100Z9.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[Rain-maker]

Islamists already saying it is the will of Allah and the storm will hit DC, go figure.

[putupon]

The bastards at NAVLANTMETOCCEN can't bother to list a SINGLE city in West Virginia on their maps?

I hope this thing hits Norfolk smack on.

They have a city in West Virginia?

sorry, I just couldn't resist

[dogbyte12]

What's most strange is that there is no Washington D.C. on this map.

Look at the little section right below Baltimore. D.C. is right in the storm path.

[Rain-maker]

The blast radius of a 20 megaton hydrogen bomb wouldn't even fill the eye of a big hurricane like Isabel.The current eye is 45 miles wide (40 natical miles).

A cat. 5 hurricane has the force of 100's of atomic bombs. It would be like pissing on a fire to throw a nuke in a hurricane. Not to mention that a daisy cutter or MOAB would be like throwing a match in the ocean.