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Angrier and Angrier
National Review ^ | 08/25/03 | Michael Ledeen

Posted on 08/25/2003 7:08:24 AM PDT by Pokey78

Self-deception, big-time.

One of the central themes of The War Against the Terror Masters is that we weren't ready for September 11 because the intelligence community did not want to see it coming. Over many years, people in the field and analysts in Washington and Langley had seen careers ruined because somebody tried to warn the policymakers that trouble was coming. The policymakers didn't want to hear that sort of thing because they were not prepared to do the unpleasant things that knowledge of the real situation required. The ultimate example was the Clinton White House, where the top people simply refused to even receive information about Osama bin Laden's activities in Sudan. Clinton was hardly unique; the NSC under Bush the Father simply refused to believe that Saddam would invade Kuwait, and even ignored seemingly incontrovertible information provided the night of the invasion, when General Scowcroft went home early.

When people lower down the food chain, perhaps driven by love of country, insisted on making their superiors face the facts, they often became living examples of "no good deed goes unpunished in Washington." Bob Baer, for example, who both proved the Iranian and PLO involvement in the Beirut-embassy bombing of 1983, and got inside the terror network a decade later, was threatened with criminal prosecution. And today, Michael Maloof, whose nearly 30 years of service in the Department of Defense uncovering all manner of anti-American skullduggery by various enemies should be rewarded with medals and high praise, is instead subjected to an internal inquisition and nasty leaks to the popular press.

Moreover, whenever either the CIA or FBI aggressively went after suspected terrorists, Congress was ready to investigate, to rewrite guidelines, and to punish anyone who actually succeeded. By September 10, the FBI could not even clip newspaper articles about openly anti-American groups, Muslim or otherwise. It was illegal.

The intelligence community accordingly learned that it must not take risks, and must not bring forward alarming information. So, over the years, the case officers and the top bureaucrats adapted to the political requirements, and they developed elaborate stratagems to ensure that they did not know the things that the policymakers did not want to know. On those occasions when, despite their best efforts, the information became so manifestly clear that it could not be ignored, the intelligence community denied its significance, or whispered darkly about the unreliability of the sources. Thus, for example, when some of the Ayatollah Khomeni's sermons were translated and published in the popular press, CIA sent experts to tell Senator Scoop Jackson's committee that the material was probably forged. And, at the same time, the CIA neatly refused to call the PLO a "terrorist" organization.

This convenient self-deception soon spread to the State Department, where in recent times it has taken on the characteristics of a full-blown obsessive/compulsive neurosis. No matter how many times State's policies fail, no matter how often the "peace process" produces more bloodshed than the preceding period, Secretary of State Colin Powell, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs William J. Burns fly off to beg our Palestinian, Iranian, Saudi and Syrian enemies to behave better, and warn our allies in Israel to show restraint at all costs. No matter how many times Iran makes monkeys out of our policymakers, Powell and Armitage insist that Iran is a democracy, redefine the bloody internal conflict as a "family squabble," and beg the mullahs for some of the al Qaeda leaders now acknowledged to be in Iran (a fact first revealed on NRO during the fighting in Afghanistan). That is not in the cards. Iran supports al Qaeda and is not about to betray them merely to give our secretary of state a nice day.

Although clinically interesting, the patient most likely to die from this syndrome is the national security of the United States, with collateral damage throughout the Western world. Our policymakers are now willfully blind, if not always to the facts themselves, at least to their plain meaning. The BBC announced over the weekend that Iraqi police had arrested Iranian terrorists planning operations in Baghdad, and turned them over to the Americans. The general phenomenon is well known, as Jerry Bremer invariably notes in his many interviews and public statements. Yet even Bremer, a man of great talent and courage, has bought into one of the major State Department myths, namely that Sunnis and Shiites don't actively cooperate. When Brit Hume asked whether the large number of terrorists pouring across the Iran/Iraq border showed that the mullahs were supporting anti-American terrorism in Iraq, Bremer said one could not say that with confidence, since most of the terrorists were Sunni, and the Iranian regime is famously Shiite.

I suppose that, if asked about Syrian support for the terrorists pouring into Iraq from Syria, our experts would remind us that the Damascus regime is secular (Baathist, like Saddam), and does not endorse jihad.…

And so we dither and debate, and go to the Security Council in order to lure more young soldiers to face the terror masters in Iraq, even as Imad Mughniyah, the lethal chieftain of Hezbollah, has now begun his operations against us in both Iraq and Jordan, and as the Iranian mullahs send out orders to begin taking American and British hostages. As Bashar Assad told us some months back, they are going to turn Iraq into a second Lebanon. This is total terrorist war, and we are trying to limit our losses, playing defense instead of taking the war into our enemies' havens.

Our inability to see the world plain carries over into more specialized areas of intelligence, even those of enormous importance. On some occasions, CIA and State have refused to even talk to sources whose previous information saved American lives, and promising leads on the location of WMDs in Iraq were dropped as well.

It is hard to believe that the president approves of this state of affairs, especially as he sees the poll results that document the American people's mounting dissatisfaction with developments in Iraq. They are right to be upset, and they are likely to get angrier still if, as I expect, the terror war against us gets uglier. I am an admirer of George W. Bush. He seems to have extraordinarily good instincts and the kind of faith-based courage that makes for good leadership under terrible circumstances. But I do not think he has come to grips with the systematic myopia of our policymakers, and the culture of self-deception that afflicts our intelligence community.

You don't need master spies to see what's going on in the Middle East, or brilliant diplomats to tell you that we are playing for enormous stakes. Most normal Americans, unencumbered by visions of diplomatic breakthroughs and negotiated settlements, sense that we are losing the initiative, and that this is costing us money, blood and prestige. We are indeed at war, but we have inexplicably stopped waging it.

Faster, please.


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: inelligence; intelligence; jerrybremer; lpaulbremer; michaelledeen; wot
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People need to have faith in George. W Bush. Sometimes conservatives tend to panic at the first sign of "difficulties".

Stay the course.

1 posted on 08/25/2003 7:08:24 AM PDT by Pokey78
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To: Dog; Howlin; Miss Marple; Sabertooth; terilyn; JohnHuang2; MeeknMing; grimalkin; MelBelle; ...
Ledeen ping.
2 posted on 08/25/2003 7:09:07 AM PDT by Pokey78 ("I'm not going to start the Third World War for you"- Gen. Sir Michael Jackson to Gen. Wesley Clark)
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To: Pokey78; MLedeen
Ledeen is correct. The State Department is an utter and total failure.
3 posted on 08/25/2003 7:13:33 AM PDT by sauropod (Until Kofi Annan rides buses in Jerusalem, he just won't care. - The Spotted Owl)
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To: Pokey78
Pretty accurate representation of the State Dept though.
4 posted on 08/25/2003 7:17:20 AM PDT by Arkie2 (It's a literary fact that the number of words written will grow exponentially to fill the space avai)
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To: Pokey78
I don't know, Washinton DC has been an insane asylum as far back as I can remember. Digging around in the historical record makes me suspect that DC has been an insane asylum for quite a while. Maybe since the 1830s.
5 posted on 08/25/2003 7:20:16 AM PDT by Iris7 ("..the Eternal Thompson Gunner.." - Zevon)
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To: Pokey78
What is really amazing to me is that in spite of overwhelming evidence, mounting by the day, that those people have no idea whatever of what they are doing, those people believe that they are of good will and doing good work. Insane, no?
6 posted on 08/25/2003 7:23:17 AM PDT by Iris7 ("..the Eternal Thompson Gunner.." - Zevon)
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To: Arkie2
True, but I got visions of conservatives screaming about the slow going in Afghanistan over a year ago. I especially remember Krauthammer almost having a fit.

A week later we were in Kabul.

7 posted on 08/25/2003 7:23:24 AM PDT by Pokey78 ("I'm not going to start the Third World War for you"- Gen. Sir Michael Jackson to Gen. Wesley Clark)
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To: Pokey78
See Tagline.
8 posted on 08/25/2003 7:23:56 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (This Islamo-fascism has been brought to you by Saudi Arabia!)
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To: Pokey78
Ledeen seems to blame Bush's current weakness on the intelligence agencies. My theory is that the problem lies with Bush himself. He is too weak of a person and not ruthless enough to destroy our enemies. So instead, he beats up on our friends (Israel).
9 posted on 08/25/2003 7:52:56 AM PDT by LarryM
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To: Pokey78
While I have no doubt that the intelligence community ignores warnings that it should not ignore, hindsight is 20/20. What this article doesn't discuss are the whistle-blowers and warnings that don't pan out. It is a balancing act between believing every warning and believing none.

They have the same problem with volcano warnings. If they see signs of volcanic activity, they don't immediately predict a volcano or call for an evacuation. Why? Because if they evacuate a city and the volcano doesn't erupt, (A) there will be a backlash against those who made the warning and (B) people will be less likely to pay attention to the next warning. Similarly, if the intelligence community went into full alert every time it had a warning, we'd likely see a lot of false alarms and instead of complaining about how they missed the warnings for 9/11, we'd be complaining about how they keep over-reacting.

In hindsight, it is easy to separate the real warnings from the false ones, just as it is with volcanoes. It is very easy to look at only half of the story and say that they weren't paying enough attention once we know better.

10 posted on 08/25/2003 7:54:01 AM PDT by Question_Assumptions
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Comment #11 Removed by Moderator

Comment #12 Removed by Moderator

To: Pokey78
...the NSC under Bush the Father simply refused to believe that Saddam would invade Kuwait,...

That doesn't seem to jibe with the April Gadsby scenario.

13 posted on 08/25/2003 8:00:06 AM PDT by Consort
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To: Pokey78
As Bashar Assad told us some months back, they are going to turn Iraq into a second Lebanon.

He doesn't know much about the current DoD, does he, or the President?

8 "THERE WILL BE NO RETREAT" ~ and other quotes from experts the PRESS ignored this week.
  ~ White House, DoD, various  | 8/25/03 | Pres. Bush, Amb. Bremer, SOD Rumsfeld +

14 posted on 08/25/2003 8:10:50 AM PDT by Ragtime Cowgirl (Rummy to Rats, 8/21* This much is certain: their cause is lost. That regime will not be coming back.)
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To: Pokey78

15 posted on 08/25/2003 8:17:01 AM PDT by MeekOneGOP (Check out the Texas Chicken D 'RATS!: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/keyword/Redistricting)
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To: Pokey78
People are extremely fickle. I remember when the UCLA fans were calling for John Wooden to be fired. His crime was that his teams had won 7 championships in a row and one year he did not win one. More recently, U of MD fans were calling for Gary Williams to be fired. His crime was his team had failed to win more than 2 games in the NCAA tournament. 2 years later, he won the championship and now all is forgiven.

GW Bush will have a very tough election unless there is peace and prosperity.
16 posted on 08/25/2003 8:18:00 AM PDT by staytrue
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To: seamole
If LarryM couldn't bash Bush, he would have nothing to post.
17 posted on 08/25/2003 8:22:34 AM PDT by carton253 (All I need to know about Islam I learned on 9/11/2001)
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Comment #18 Removed by Moderator

To: seamole
I like Bush a lot, and I think he's giving the right broad orders, they're just not being fully implemented by some of his subordinates.

This article tiptoes around, but never clearly states, how far the federal government has been klintonized during the regime of Bill and Hiltery. Even "protected" civil servants found out that if someone ratted them out, and said they had a picture of George H. W. Bush on their desk, bad things would happen to their careers. Generals who retired in disgust during the klinton years, and there were many, were warned to keep quiet, or see "complications" develop with their pensions.

The State Department was pretty well klintonized even before the klintons took power. But they spread their evil, and their own "sleeper agents" throughout the civil service system in other angencies, too. The entire emphasis was on not reporting what the klintons did not want to hear, and making sure your subordinates didn't nose around in those areas, either.

19 posted on 08/25/2003 8:59:00 AM PDT by 300winmag (All that is gold does not glitter.)
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To: Pokey78
Would somebody please answer a reasonably simple question?

Does the legal concept "treason" still exist?

20 posted on 08/25/2003 9:04:44 AM PDT by Publius6961 (californians are as dumb as a sack of rocks.)
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