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Posted on 07/13/2003 5:11:17 PM PDT by DPB101
If you want to predict the future of any conflict, find out who is sponsoring it. Terrorism, revolutions and civil wars require large investments. To become a real threat, popular discontent must be used by members of the social elite.
Vladimir Lenin once said that for his cause he could take money from Satan himself. Satan was Germany, with whom Lenin concluded a deal: In exchange for the sponsoring of the Bolshevik revolution, he promised, in case of victory, to sign with Germany a separate peace agreement, ceding to it a huge part of Russian territory and betraying Russia's allies in World War II.
Back then the Communist party emerged as an absolute winner and Russia as an absolute loser. Russia's economic growth, which made her the sixth-richest country in the world, was stopped for a century. Russians ate the poisoned Marxist candy and shut themselves in their domestic concentration camp.
Europeans, always haunted by the threat of the Russian giant at their door, were secretly relieved. However, had those who gave Lenin millions foreseen the results of their "deal," they would have thought twice before doing it. Or would they have?
Recent events in Moscow and in Europe leave this question open, for scary things with a painful "déjà vu" refrain are taking place.
Since 1990, Russia has stood in the way of democracy and, with all its failures, mistakes and wonderings, managed to remain there. Freedom of speech, press and religion are a reality.
The economy is relatively stable, economic growth has improved and the hard currency fund has increased from $11 billion to $61 billion. President Putin succeeded, with great difficulty, to attract investors and stop the massive fleeing of capital abroad. However, all these achievements could be lost after the 2003 parliamentary and 2004 presidential elections.
The threat comes from the Communist Party, for now it has found the most powerful sponsors--14 Russian oligarchs who divided between themselves all of Russia's national wealth and natural resources. Threatened by Putin's will to limit their power and increase their taxation (called taxes on superprofit), they turned to their former enemy--Communists.
First, Boris Berezowsky, a multibillionaire and ex-owner of the channel NTV, now hiding from justice in England, offered Zuganow, the Communist Party leader, an important sum of hard currency. His example was followed by other oligarchs hoping that, in exchange for support, the Communists will vote against Putin's anti-oligarchs' law.
Naturally, the oligarchs don't want the return of communism, but, once in power, the communists will be obliged to fulfill at least some social promises they made to their impoverished electorate.
This is what happened in Chile to the socialist president, Salvador Allende, whose politics led to economic crises and hyperinflation. A similar situation is very possible in Russia.
Threatened by nationalization, capital will flee, followed by hyperinflation and an economic crisis that only could be stopped by a dictator like Pinochet (an extremely popular figure among Russian military). In this case, Russia would complete yet another cycle of tyranny-democratization-tyranny. Unfortunately, very few, if any, seem to understand it.
Russian intelligentsia, by old habit and principle, is generally opposed to Putin, failing to understand that at this historical moment he is the only warrant of stability and democracy. An army of retirees, composing the Communist electorate, is angered by its misery and dream of Communist retribution.
Yabloko and The Union of Right Forces, political parties of the emerging middle class and small businessmen, also oppose the president because they demand the replacement of the presidential republic with a parliamentary one. Therefore, left and right oppositions have met. At the same time the European media, particularly the French, have been eagerly supporting the oligarch Berezowsky, persecuted in Russia for his economic crimes, as a "victim of "dictatorial" Putin, who "wants to suffocate the freedom of press."
Western European newspapers already cheerfully predict Putin's loss in the 2004 elections, and the French left rejoices at Zuganov's future victory, naively believing that the latter has been safely transformed into a civilized socialist. All the dangerous ingredients of a Russian disaster seem to be present: an unhappy military, impoverished masses, greedy oligarchs, out of touch intelligentsia and a delusional European media.
Yet one crucial element is missing: Lenin could use the German bribe only thanks to the chaos of World War I. There is no war to enable Zuganov to use his. Thus, military peace installed by the United States will save Russia from another Communist rehearsal.
Yelena Matusevich is an associate professor of foreign languages at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Samuel Beilin writes at the Independent Press Center Nevski Zaliv, in St. Petersburg, Russia.
The oligarches use socialism to enhance their profit potential but have not a clue as to how to control it to keep themselves from being considered the parasites that infest societies that cherish freedom. Sounds suicidal to me.
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FreeRepublic , LLC PO BOX 9771 FRESNO, CA 93794
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It is in the breaking news sidebar! |
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| The oligarches use socialism to enhance their profit potential but have not a clue as to how to control it to keep themselves from being considered the parasites that infest societies that cherish freedom. Sounds suicidal to me.
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In 1920, John Reed was given between one and two million in diamonds, jewels, gold and artifacts to fence in America to fund the Communist Party USA. Armand Hammer was the Kremlin's most loyal and longest lasting fence. What Bolsheviks couldn't fence, they melted down. In 1931, heavy weight champ Gene Tunney visited a smelter outside Moscow. He wrote:
. . .They had been gorgeous works of art, decorated with bas-reliefs of the saints, the apostles, of Christ, of His parables. Here was a huge bass bell on the sides of which the story of the Annunciation had been told by a sculptor; and near it was another beautified with the story of Bethlehem."Probably they'd laugh at me," I said to McClenahan, "but this seems unnecessary. What a shame. How many tons have you in this hill?"
"I don't know," replied McClenahan, "but thus far we've smelted six hundred thousand tons of them for their bronze, gold, silver, copper and so on . . .
I noticed what were bundles of icons of brass, gold, silver and platinum; candelabra of the same metals; holy vessels and altar pieces. They were all in machine-pressed blocks ready for the furnace. On top of this mound I saw what seemed to me to be a man asleep . . .I asked the president of the workers' council about it . . .He winked at another Russian and, catlike, leaped up the hill of confiscated altar pieces . . .He raised his right foot and rolled the prostrate figure over with a thrust of his heel. It teetered on the edge and then came rolling down, crashing in a moment at our feet.
It was a great bronze figure of Christ, a magnificent sculpture. It was more than life size and apparently had been wrenched from its huge cross. . .more
Aside from that, the details of the funding are pretty good.
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Me too. When I see guys who have managed to accumulate billions acting stupidly, I back up and ask "What about this do I not understand?" One thing I'm sure I don't understand is Russian politics. Instead of billionaires acting stupidly, I'd bet on billionaires acting smartly in a system that has features we don't even know are features.