Posted on 07/02/2003 11:36:16 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob
Before the California campaign can possibly begin, the results are obvious.
Arnold Schwarzenegger has not formally declared for the recall election of Governor Gray Davis, because the election has not been scheduled, because the total signatures have not been filed and haven't been fully counted. All those tumblers will click into place, and Ah-nold will win that election.
Sounds like I'm going pretty far out on a limb. But every step is intensely factual and logical. Here's why:
On Monday, 7 July, 2003, the supporters of a recall election against Governor Davis will file the balance of 1.1 million signatures, more than enough to provide the 897,158 valid signatures to trigger such an election against a Governor for the first time in California history, and only the second potentially successful recall of a Governor in the history of all fifty states. By Tuesday, the California and national press will report that sufficient signatures are in hand. (Actually, the filing will be about 1.2 million, well in excess of the number needed based on the validation rate of the first wave of signatures, already counted by County officials across the state.)
Led by election officials loyal to Davis, who is the captain of their sinking ship, California will delay as long as possible the official certification of those signatures. But by the end of August the state will acknowledge that the target signatures are in hand. The election will be set either early in October, or early November. Worst case analysis, assume November.
This will be a two-part election. First will be a yes-no question: "Should Gray Davis be recalled as Governor?" Immediately below that on the ballot will be a laundry list of candidates running to replace Davis. This is a winner-take-all election. Whoever gets the most votes, however small a percentage of the total vote, will become Governor the following morning if Davis loses the initial vote.
Critical to predicting the outcome of this election is the incredibly tight time line. The election will be officially announced in August. There will be about thirty days for all potential candidates to file and qualify for the election. That will leave no more than nine weeks for the entire campaign – keep in mind there is no primary. All the processes in a normal election that take six months or more, will be packed into just nine weeks.
An early question is whether, once the handwriting is on the wall, Governor Davis can resign, turn the job over to Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, and thereby cancel the recall election. Many have speculated on that, including Susan Estrich, Professor of Law at UCLA, who should have known better.
The California Code provides that if the target of a recall "resigns after a recall has been filed," the appropriate official takes over "until the election is held." And this recall has been filed. The window for Davis to stop the process by resigning has closed. Ms. Estrich should have known better than to state the opposite on Fox News this week. But then she's a longtime Democrat operative, allowed her politics to interfere with reading and understanding the law that she teaches in the classroom.
Before the filing deadline for this special election, tremendous jockeying will occur, especially among the Democrats. There will not be the discipline of traditional primary elections for the Republicans and Democrats -- where the big dogs can persuade the little dogs to stay on the porch and not run by offering both carrots and sticks, some legal, some not. The total number of candidates who file in this winner-take-all election will probably be in the order of the two special elections in Hawaii to replace the deceased Rep. Patsy Mink, or about 40.
First, let's dispense with the idea that Davis can win the recall election and keep his job as Governor. As this is written, his approval rating is at 25%, the lowest measured for any California Governor, ever. Ample polls have been taken to show that millions of Democrats and independent voters, in addition to Republicans, have decided to pull the lever to dump Davis. Davis will be recalled, the only question being the margin of his defeat.
Early in the process, it will become clear (even in polls conducted by staunchly Democrat newspapers) that Davis is toast. Attention will then turn fully to the question of who will replace him. In this special election, more accurately called a stampede than a race, only the candidates with high name recognition will have a realistic chance to win.
Representative Dan Issa, the Republican who has been a leader of the recall and put $400,000 of his own money into that effort, is also running to replace Davis. But he will be the front-runner only until someone with greater name recognition enters the race. No one, including Davis himself, has greater name recognition than Arnold Schwarzenegger. There are other potential Republican candidates, some preferred by conservative groups, others by moderates. But all those are less well-known than Issa. The Republican side of this race belongs to Ah-nold, the instant that he declares.
The Governorship of California is the largest plum in politics below the national level. When it is clear that Davis is political road kill, the Democrats will do what they can to try to get their man, or woman, to win the recall race and replace Davis.
This will be a stand-alone election; except in San Francisco in November, nothing and no one other than Davis and his potential replacements will on the ballot. Turnout in such special elections is historically low, probably about 30% of the eligible voters. That gives the Democrats their slight chance to hold onto Davis' job, after Davis is removed. Low turn-out elections are easier to dominate by a dedicated block of voters who traditionally turn out, no matter what.
The public service unions in California will attempt to unite behind a single Democrat candidate, because public sector union jobs are on the line in the hundreds of thousands (counting both state bureaucracies and educational sector employees). Leaders of about 85% of the union membership will probably unite behind a well-known, union-friendly Democrat.
For worst-case analysis, assume that the strongest candidate the Democrats can offer, Senator Diane Feinstein, joins the contest. (She will probably stay out of it, not out of loyalty to Davis but because having a union-supported Democrat replace Davis now will be like rowing to the mid-Atlantic to replace the Captain of the Titanic.) National Democrats, recognizing the importance of California, will pour money and people into the race to save that prize for the union-favored candidate.
All the efforts of the Democrats to hold Sacramento for their party will fail. Arnold Schwarzenegger will win the election. Here's why:
Ah-nold doesn't have to wait for funds to be raised and to come in. He is an excellent businessman and has preserved and increased his wealth. He can spend whatever he needs to from his own pocket, while raising additional funds as he goes along. No other candidate can hit the ground running with self-financing in this very short race as well as Ah-nold.
California voters are fed up with what is happening in Sacramento. They are just as angry with the legislature as they are with the Governor. Enough voters both to dump Davis and to name his replacement are ready for someone who can become a "predator" in Sacramento and "destroy" all opposition, someone who can "terminate" the multiple legal and financial messes in California, and "erase" his opposition. The reference to six of Schwarzenegger's successful films is not just a verbal game – this is the image that this man has in the minds of Californians before he gives a single campaign speech, or spends a single day on the campaign trail.
Schwarzenegger is the kind of candidate who can attract not only Democrats, but even some of the Party's hardcore union members. Recall the phenomenon of "Reagan Democrats." President Reagan's two overwhelming victories were not won with merely Republican votes. Both happened only because of his massive Democrat support. The new version of "Arnie's Army" will also contain many Democrat volunteers. Union leaders will no more be able to deliver their rank and file in this election than they did in the Reagan elections.
The winning percentage in this winner-take-all election to replace Davis will be about 39%. We are accustomed to elections in which the winner receives more than 51%. But recall that Abraham Lincoln was elected President in 1860 with just 39% of the vote. He faced four other opponents. Ah-nold will face about 40 other candidates, including the Green Party candidate who will probably siphon off about 5% from the Democrats, again.
Compared to the other candidates, Ah-nold will be the "cop" and they will be the "kindergarten." When Ah-nold wins, the "recall" will become "total."
So far, I've said little about Ah-nold's abilities to serve as Governor after he wins the election. If he had an Achilles heel, this would be it. He would fade as a candidate, if all he had to offer were his achievements as an actor. (Susan Sarandon and Tim Robbins come to mind, for instance.) But Ah-nold has a graduate degree in business, and has proven himself as a very successful manager. Also, he has been very successful as a political leader, both in California and nationally – it has been volunteer work, not paid, and he was appointed, not elected, but the record is clear.
That unknown side of Ah-nold will be the focus of his TV advertising, which will begin approximately a nanosecond after he formally throws his hat in the ring.
And lastly, it doesn't hurt with the majority of all voters in California (as elsewhere) who are female, that Ah-nold is a hunk or a "hottie." Any way you scratch it, as soon as Ah-nold is in the race, it's his to lose. He will not lose it.
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(C) 2003 Congressman Billybob. All rights reserved.
You can see by Wednesday of next week if this is shaping up the way I predict.
For worst-case analysis, assume that the strongest candidate the Democrats can offer, Senator Diane Feinstein, joins the contest. (She will probably stay out of it, not out of loyalty to Davis but because having a union-supported Democrat replace Davis now will be like rowing to the mid-Atlantic to replace the Captain of the Titanic.)
And this is why the Republicans should not try to win the Governorship. Let all the blame for California's collapse fall unambiguously where it belongs: on the Democrats.
Is this piece posted on your web site yet. I couldn't find the link and would like to post it on my site.
A whole summer of free publicity.
He'll be promoting the movie & his candidacy.
Of course little things like the election law didn't stop them in NJ when Torch stepped down. They just found judges who ignored the law. I don't really think the CA Supreme Court would pull that but you never know.
Representative Dan Issa,
That's Representative Darryl Issa.
I agree though, the job is Ahnold's for the taking.
Darrell.
I agree, Arnold will be the next governor, although there is a chance that if Shelley can put off the vote until March Davis can survive the vote, as long as they pass a budget and stuff.
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